McCain's Latin Dance
Republicans Seek to Sway Hispanic Vote
By MIRIAM JORDAN
February 9, 2008; Page A6



Republican presidential front-runner John McCain could help swing back to his party a crucial constituency considered lost to Democrats amid a rancorous immigration debate: the Hispanic vote. But Mr. McCain will have to tread carefully as he intensifies a push to win over his party's right-wing base.

The Arizona senator's "McCain-Kennedy" bill, which was defeated last year, would have put 12 million illegal immigrants on the path to legal status. On the campaign trail, Hispanic voters have heard the presidential candidate declare illegal immigrants "are God's children, as well." He called for "love and compassion" when lambasted on illegal immigration at town-hall meetings.

Such views have provided a possible opportunity for the Republican Party to win back Hispanic voters. Hispanics constitute the fastest-growing demographic group in the U.S. The Latino vote could be decisive in large, Hispanic-heavy states like California and Texas, as well as states where Latinos are a fast-growing minority, such as Pennsylvania and Colorado.

Since the 2004 election, when President Bush garnered solid Latino support, the Republican Party has become less attractive to Hispanics. Mr. McCain could be the exception: In exit polls from the recent Florida primary, Cuban-Americans and other Hispanics favored Mr. McCain 54% to 14% over Mitt Romney.

But Mr. McCain may face an obstacle in courting Hispanics. Having been blasted by Republican opponents and prominent conservative radio-talk-show hosts for sponsoring the immigration bill, Mr. McCain recently began to emphasize border security over an immigration overhaul. He may yet shift gears now that Mr. Romney, who with Mike Huckabee had shared the blessing of Republican conservatives, has pulled out of the race.

"Changing rhetoric on immigration to attract conservative voters...could come back to hurt him in a general election with Latinos," says Matt Barreto, a political-science professor at the University of Washington. "They will be asking, 'Who is the real John McCain?' It's a typical dilemma for candidates."

In an address to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Thursday, Mr. McCain made border security a clear priority. "I accept that and have I have pledged that it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first...and only after we achieved widespread consensus that our borders are secure, would we address other aspects of the problem in a way that defends the rule of law and does not encourage another wave of illegal immigration," he said.

In a radio spot that aired in California ahead of "Super Tuesday," Mr. McCain also took a tough stance. "I've listened and learned. ... No one will be rewarded for illegal behavior. They'll go to the back of the line, pay fines and learn English. ... We'll punish employers that hire illegal immigrants," he said.

Mr. McCain will be walking a tightrope as he tries to court the right wing of his party, members of which have mistrusted him for years, while not alienating Hispanics.

"He is trying to have it both ways on immigration -- for comprehensive reform in the eyes of Hispanics and against it with the party faithful," says Dan Restrepo, a director at the Center for American Progress, which describes itself as a progressive think tank.



Until he adjusted his immigration message recently, Mr. McCain's views were in stark contrast to those of his Republican rivals. Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, played to Republican hard-liners by voicing fierce opposition to amnesty for those in the country illegally and committing to cut funding for so-called sanctuary cities, which don't enforce immigration law as a matter of policy. Mr. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, has campaigned alongside Jim Gilchrist, who founded a volunteer border patrol called the Minuteman Project.

Many Hispanics already feel stung by the strident tone of the immigration debate in Congress and support for punitive measures by high-profile Republicans like Colorado's Tom Tancredo and Wisconsin's James Sensenbrenner. "There is a feeling, even among Latinos here for generations, that Hispanics aren't welcome," says Mr. Sosa.

Mr. McCain could effectively swipe Latino votes from whichever Democrat wins the nomination. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois have supported comprehensive immigration overhauls that would create a guest-worker program and provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But each candidate has weaknesses.

Mrs. Clinton could lose ground if Mr. McCain seizes on her changing stances over a proposal by New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer last year to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. She ended up opposed to the idea, a decision that was criticized by immigrant-rights groups such as the New York Immigration Coalition, which had lobbied for the licenses.

Mr. McCain could also provide a Republican alternative to Hispanics who may be resistant to supporting an African-American candidate like Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama lost the Hispanic vote on Super Tuesday to Mrs. Clinton in states where Hispanics are expected to be a key vote come November, including California, Illinois, New York and New Mexico.

In the past, voter turnout among Hispanics has been lower than for African-Americans and whites. This year, however, they are expected to vote in record numbers, more than nine million, compared with six million in 2004, according to the National Association for Latino Elected Officials. In addition to the immigration issue, a national registration drive and get-out-the-vote campaign by Spanish-language media and grass-roots Hispanic groups have energized the constituency.

Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1202519 ... lenews_wsj