Thread: As Latinos Tilt Democratic, Can Texas Stay 'Red'?

As Latinos tilt Democratic, can Texas stay ‘red’?

The Lone Star State is the last big GOP bastion where Hispanics are a sizable voting bloc.

By Michael B. Farrell | Staff writer / November 25, 2008 edition

Karen Warren/The Houston Chronicle/AP/File
Election edition: Olga Parada stacked papers as they rolled off the presses Nov. 5. Sixty-three percent of Texas Hispanics went for Obama.


When President Bush says so long to Washington on Jan. 20, he’ll return to a much different Lone Star State from the one he left eight years ago.

Pickup trucks, Big Oil, and barbecue brisket still reign supreme, but this red state that helped deliver the presidency to Mr. Bush twice and his father once, and that catapulted GOP strategist Karl Rove to the national stage, is suddenly spotted with big pockets of blue.

Dallas is controlled by Democrats; Houston is in their hands, too. It’s all largely because of the state’s growing Hispanic population, which overwhelmingly sided with Democrats this year.

“The tide of demography in Texas is moving against the Republicans,â€

Related:

11.29.2008
A Blue Texas? Latinos Will Decide
As Latinos tilt Democratic, can Texas stay ‘red’?

That's the question Michael B. Farrell examines in his terrific article in today's Christian Science Monitor. While he doesn't give an answer, he lays out some of the political and demographic trends shaping the outcome. For example:

Texas' major cities are now controlled by Democrats

Texas recently joined California, New Mexico and Hawaii as a minority majority state

Texas Latinos comprise 36% of the population (eclipsing the Anglo pop. by 2020)

Texas in-migration of Anglos are typically younger, more urban and more progressive than are native Anglo Texans

Nationally, younger Latinos backed Obama 76% to 19% for McCain

Texas Anglos is an aging demographic (e.g., 70% of people older than 60 in Harris County/Houston are Anglo, while more than 75% of people younger than 30 are non-Anglo)

Of course, changes in demographics alone will not decide the fate of a political party. After all, immigrant groups have been known to migrate politically as they solidified their middle class status, and the same thing could happen with Latinos and other populations in Texas. It is, in part, how President G. W. Bush managed to get 46% of the Texas Latino vote in '04.

And there's always the possibility -- slim as it may be -- of the party exorcising itself and transforming into a competent, humane and forward thinking option more in-sync with peoples' aspirations instead of their fears.

But actions and words matter. And Republicans of late have been hell bent on scapegoating all of the nation's problems on immigrants -- Latino immigrants in particular. Some of their leading nativist propagandists--Lou Dobbs, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Tom Tancredo, Patrick Buchanan, Michael Savage, and many others--view Latinos in general as a threat.

As a result, Republicans have been steadily losing Latino support. According to Pew, Latino support for the GOP dropped 9% between '04 and '08.

Further dimming their prospects are Republican views on the environment, women's rights, gay rights, labor rights, foreign policy and economics. Harsh conservative views trouble today's younger voters of all stripes -- across the nation as well as in Texas.

Imagine a Texas-less Republican Party. Hard to imagine, right? But nevertheless, likely. Had Texas flipped this year, McCain would have lost by 399 to 137 EVs instead of 365 to 171 trouncing he received. If Texas flips in 2012 or 2016, the damage to the GOP will be even greater if, as expected, 1 or 2 electoral votes are added to its total as per reapportionment.

Barring a catastrophic failure on the part of President Barack Obama and the national Democrats, it's hard to see a scenario whereby Republicans stop Texas from going Blue. They have blown it! Nativism, warmongering and economic incompetence are just not selling points for people looking for brighter futures.

Related: Changing Face of Texas: Population Projections and Implications
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/pubs/ ... ersen.html

Posted by Gerry Vázquez at 8:32 PM
http://americantaino.blogspot.com/2008/ ... ecide.html

Texas is a Conservative State. It was a Blue Dog Democratic state for most of it's history. If the Republicans of this state continue to be Conservative, then it will remain Red. The RINOs are being chased out.

Dixie

More MSM and ethnocentric propaganda designed to threaten Republicans to support open borders. There are several recent threads here that show how supporting amnesty is not an electoral winner for the GOP. That said, we still should continue to make sure that Hutchison and Cornyn and others hear our voices (the voices of the vast majority who reject any form of amnesty).

It also should send a message to the GOP if you keep giving amnesty to all the 3rd world tresspassers they are going to vote Democratic.....

they need to get immigration changed so we are bringing more in people (from around the world) who can take care of them selves, buy their own Medical Insurance etc. those people will vote Republican and not drain the American taxpayer.

Republicans can not be so stupid to not see what is happening here....time to wake up and change your ways alright....get ready because the Democrates are GOING TO PISS OFF THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER!!

If the GOP doesn't get it's act together in the next four years there won't be a republican left in the USA.