Thread: Looking past McCain on immigration reform

Looking past McCain on immigration reform

Scott Wong -
Aug. 26, 2010 10:08 AM
POLITICO.COM

Few expect John McCain to pick up the torch again for immigration reform, especially since the Arizona senator took such a hard right turn on the issue to beat back a conservative primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth this week.

But Hispanic- and immigration-rights activists say McCain isn't the only senator who could serve as the Republican standard-bearer for immigration reform.

McCain still waiting on Hayworth call

For one, they haven't given up on Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who endorsed a reform plan this year but recently caused a national uproar after saying the children of illegal immigrants should not receive birthright citizenship under the Constitution.

Activists also are continuing to court Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who replaced the late Ted Kennedy, the liberal stalwart who had partnered with McCain on a failed 2007 reform package that included a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S.

And they say Florida's three-way Senate contest between Republican Marco Rubio, Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist could produce a credible voice and champion for immigration issues.

"We want to see what Congress looks like after the elections," said Lynn Tramonte, deputy director of America's Voice, an immigrant-rights group. "We want to see who is viable."

With Democrats short of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate – and poised to lose more seats in November – Republicans almost certainly will need to be part of any future immigration discussions.

Three years ago, with President George W. Bush prodding Congress to take action on comprehensive immigration reform, McCain represented the Democrats' best hope for a compromise with Republicans: A border-state senator who understood the plight of immigrants and wasn't afraid to buck his own party to strike a deal.

But by McCain's 2008 presidential bid, the "maverick" had abandoned any talk of comprehensive reform, instead saying the federal government needed to first secure the border.

He returned to that message again this year – endorsing Arizona's tough new immigration law and urging Washington to "complete the danged fence" — as he fended off a challenge from immigration hawk Hayworth, a former congressman and conservative talk-radio host.

The strategy worked. McCain routed Hayworth by a 25 percent margin, setting up a contest with little-known Democrat Rodney Glassman, a former Tucson City Council member, in November's general election.

McCain has shown no sign of backing away from his hard-line stance on immigration, even after dispatching Hayworth. "We will secure our borders," McCain said at his victory speech in Phoenix Tuesday night.

His spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan added, "Senator McCain believes we must secure the borders first, by fully implementing the McCain/Kyl 10-Point Border security plan."

But all the tough talk alienated and angered Hispanics who had long seen McCain as an ally on immigration reform.

"One thing that has become clear about John McCain is he will say and do everything he needs to do to stay in the good graces of voters," said Fernand Amandi, an executive with Bendixen & Amandi, a Florida-based Latino polling and communications firm. "I would be shocked to see him come back to the middle to gain the support of Hispanics and Latinos."

Cesar Conda, who served as domestic policy adviser for former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, said he can't imagine McCain returning to "Bush-like comprehensive immigration reform."

"He spent most of the year moving away from it from that kind of approach," said Conda, a principal and lobbyist with Navigators Global in Washington. "I think he will continue to emphasize border security and building a fence."

While many believe McCain is a lost cause on reform, GOP strategist Ana Navarro hasn't written off one of the senator's closest allies, Graham, who rolled out a reform proposal with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in March that included a path to citizenship for the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants.

However, the South Carolina Republican came under fire from Democrats – as well as Conda and other Bush administration officials – after he said the Constitution's 14th Amendment needs to be rewritten to prevent the U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants and those here on tourist visas from receiving automatic citizenship.

"There is a logic to his madness," said Navarro, who fled Nicaragua at age 8 during the Sandinista revolution. "What he was trying to do is put something in the pot, to sweeten the pot so he could attract some of the right wing to reach a compromise on comprehensive immigration reform."

Graham spokesman Kevin Bishop said border security remains the senator's No. 1 concern but that other issues -- including employment verification, a guest worker program, birthright citizenship, and a plan to deal with the illegal immigrants already in the country -- also need to be looked at.

"Our immigration system is broken on multiple levels," Bishop said.

It's just not Hispanics who are looking for a Republican champion. The New York-based Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform, which is pushing for a comprehensive solution, has been meeting with GOP Sens. Scott Brown, John Cornyn of Texas and Dick Lugar of Indiana, said the group's president, Ciaran Staunton.

An estimated 50,000 Irish illegal immigrants live in the U.S., more than half of them in New York City.

"We're not looking for a Democratic immigration bill because it will never pass," Staunton said.

Maine's two Republican senators – Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins – remain possibilities as well, though Conda highlights a political reality: "The universe for supporters of immigration reform is pretty small."

Threatened by conservative tea party candidates, establishment Republicans throughout the country have had to tack to the right to survive the bruising primary season.

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, said he expects Republicans – even McCain -- to soften their stances on immigration as the November general election approaches.

"We are open to additional conversations with adults in the Republican Party who want to find an immigration solution," Noorani said. "The (political) environment and their positions will continue to change over the next four to six months because all of these candidates are looking at a completely different voting population than they were yesterday."

That may be most apparent in the Senate race in Florida, where Latinos comprise about 13 percent of voters, according to a recent study by America's Voice. More than 1.2 million Latinos cast ballots in the 2008 presidential election, an 80 percent increase from the 2000 election.

Meek, a four-term Democratic congressman, has been a staunch supporter of comprehensive immigration reform. Crist, the former Republican running as an independent, backs a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants saying it will keep Social Security solvent.

Meanwhile, Rubio, the Cuban-American tea party darling, is harder to read on immigration. He's said he had concerns about Arizona's hard-line immigration law and does not support changes to the 14th Amendment, but he opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants.

"It's clear that if you want to be Republican and want to win, you can't be anti-immigrant," Noorani said. "Rubio, Crist and Meek will have to move to a place where they are competing for Latino voters, not taking them for granted."

The Arizona Republic is a member of the Politico Network.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... z0xkSZLI00

I have no doubt in my mind that Lindsay Grahm and McCain have already started making plans a new immigration reform package. I just dont understand how nearly 70% of Arozinians would support Gov Brewer's immigration law but vote for an amnesty lover like McCain. Something is fishy.

Originally Posted by butterbean

I have no doubt in my mind that Lindsay Grahm and McCain have already started making plans a new immigration reform package. I just dont understand how nearly 70% of Arozinians would support Gov Brewer's immigration law but vote for an amnesty lover like McCain. Something is fishy.

Only 20 - 25 % of the AZ. registered voters bothered to vote.