The number of illegal aliens is shrinking in these 12 states, increasing in 3
The number of undocumented immigrants is shrinking in these 12 states (including N.J.)
By Kelly Heyboer | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com | Posted January 13, 2019 at 09:00 AM
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U.S. Border Patrol in San Diego, seen through razor wire lining the border in Tijuana, Mexico. (AP file photo)
As President Donald Trump and lawmakers in Washington, D.C., continue to debate whether there is an illegal immigration crisis at the southern border, experts say the number of undocumented immigrants has declined in a dozen states -- including New Jersey.
The estimated number of immigrants living in the country illegally fell to about 10.7 million in 2016, its lowest point in more than a decade, according to an analysis of the latest-available data by the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan think tank.
Twelve states saw their population of undocumented immigrants decrease between 2007 and 2016, according to the estimates.
"The decline is due almost entirely to a sharp decrease in the number of Mexicans entering the country without authorization," the Pew report said.
In New Jersey, the number of unauthorized immigrants fell 16 percent to an estimated 475,000, the report said. However, New Jersey continues to have one of the largest undocumented immigrant populations in the country.
Much of the nationwide decline took place during President Barack Obama's administration. It is unclear how Trump's policies of cracking down on illegal immigration has affected the numbers since he took office in 2017.
Here are the 12 states that saw declines in their undocumented immigrant populations between 2007 and 2016, according to the Pew report:
12. Arkansas
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 55,000
Population change: -10,000
11. Alabama
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 55,000
Population change: -15,000
10. New Mexico
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 60,000
Population change: -25,000
9. Nevada
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 210,000
Population change: -35,000
8. Oregon
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 110,000
Population change: -40,000
7. Michigan
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 100,000
Population change: -45,000
6. New Jersey
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 475,000
Population change: -90,000
5. Illinois
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 400,000
Population change: -140,000
4. Arizona
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 275,000
Population change: -220,000
3. Florida
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 775,000
Population change: -240,000
2. New York
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 725,000
Population change: -300,000
1. California
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 2.2 million
Population change: -550,000
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States where unauthorized immigrant population increased between 2007 and 2016:
1. Delaware
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 30,000
Population change: +60,000
2. Massachusetts
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 250,000
Population change: +35,000
3. Louisiana
Estimated undocumented immigrant population: 70,000
Population change: +15,000
The effects of the recession
Immigration experts say the number of undocumented immigrants is falling in the U.S. largely for economic reasons.
The recession -- which lasted from 2007 to 2009 and continues to have lasting effects today -- drastically decreased the number of construction jobs nationwide. That kept many undocumented workers from Mexico from either crossing the border or staying in the U.S., said Ali Chaudhary, an assistant professor of sociology at Rutgers University who studies immigrant migration patterns.
"Since the recession, we've seen massive declines," Chaudhary said. "It's directly tied to construction."
Though the economy has begun to bounce back and construction has picked up, it is not at the levels it was before the recession.
So, some of the networks that brought immigrants, especially Mexicans, into New Jersey and other states to fill low-level construction jobs have dried up, Chaudhary said.
However, the statistics show that an increasing percentage of unauthorized immigrants are coming from Central America, especially the three "Northern Triangle" nations of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Many of the immigrants from those countries are fleeing violence, drug gangs and poverty.
People from the "Northern Triangle" region of Central America made up about 18 percent of undocumented immigrants in 2016, the Pew report said.
"There is a crisis going on," Chaudhary said of the Central American immigrants. "The real issue is figuring out a solution to why they are fleeing."
What the undocumented immigrant population looks like in New Jersey
Though the numbers have fallen over the last decade, New Jersey still has about 475,000 undocumented immigrants, according to the Pew report's estimates.
Unauthorized immigrants make up about 5.2 percent of New Jersey's population. That is one of the highest percentages in the nation, trailing only Nevada, Texas and California.
It is important to remember how immigration policies affect the people behind the statistics, said Johanna Calle, director of New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice, a statewide advocacy group.
"This data shows us two things: The Trump administration continues to lie about the need for increased border security. Peaceful asylum seekers have always sought refuge in the United States," Calle said. "How we handle the phenomenon of human migration and treat immigrants reflect on our own humanity as a nation,"
Data from the the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., shows the typical undocumented immigrant living in New Jersey is a male, in his 30s and from Mexico. The majority of undocumented immigrants living in New Jersey have jobs and have lived here for more than a decade, the numbers show.
Immigration experts say the majority of unauthorized immigrants in New Jersey probably didn't cross the U.S. border illegally. Instead, most probably arrived with valid tourist, student or work visas and stayed after they expired.
In New Jersey, immigrant advocacy groups successfully lobbied for state-funded college financial aid for undocumented immigrants and new limits on how much local police can assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. They are also continuing to push for legislation to give driver's licenses to unauthorized immigrants.
"While the overall number of undocumented immigrants residing in the state may be decreasing, the need for dignity and fair treatment is increasing," Calle said. "The need for universal representation, drivers licenses, and limits to collaboration with ICE is still a concern for the half-a-million undocumented people in New Jersey."
Where did these numbers come from?
There is no official count of how many immigrants are living in the U.S. illegally.
But the government and other sources provide some estimates.
The Pew Research Center took information from official sources, including the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Statistics and the U.S. Census, and analyzed the numbers for areas where undocumented immigrants may have been undercounted.
Here is the Pew researchers' explanation of the methodology for their estimates.
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