Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus

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Democratic Iowa Caucus
Iowa Caucus: Clinton 33% Edwards 22% Obama 21%
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
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The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 finds Senator Hillary Clinton on top with support from 33% of Likely Caucus Participants. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is supported by 22% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama attracts 21%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is at 7% in the poll followed by Delaware Senator Joe Biden at 4% (see crosstabs).

Clinton has a substantial lead among women, attracting 39% of the female vote. She has a much smaller advantage among men, leading Edwards just 28% to 24%.

Among political liberals likely to participate, Clinton earns 29% of the vote while Obama attracts 24%. A recent national survey found that 40% of Democratic voters see Obama as politically liberal. Only 29% say the same of Clinton.

Obama is strongest among upper income participants, those earning at least $75,000 a year. Clinton does best among those earning less than $40,000 a year. As for those between those extremes, Edwards is preferred by 29%, Clinton by 28%, and Obama by 21%.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Clinton supporters say they are certain they will vote for her. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Edwards’ supporters say the same about him and 48% of Obama’s voters are that confident. Given the high numbers of voters who say they could change their mind, the race in Iowa remains very fluid.

Nationally, Clinton has a commanding lead in the polls. Her growing lead is one of three trends currently defining the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton also leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely Caucus Participants have a favorable opinion of Clinton and the same number offer a positive assessment of Edwards. Obama is viewed favorably by 78%, Richardson by 63%, and Biden by 51%.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Likely Democratic Caucus Participants believe the Democrats will win the White House in 2008. Only 5% disagree. That’s a far greater level of confidence than is found among Republican caucus participants.

Ninety percent (90%) of the caucus Democrats want to see troops home from Iraq within a year. That figure includes 34% who want the troops withdrawn immediately. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.

Among Democratic caucus participants, 40% believe America’s best days are in the future. Forty-four percent (44%) say the best days have already come and gone.

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Clinton in the lead with Edwards and Obama close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Clinton with 33% of the vote and an eleven point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Clinton attracts 31% support and leads by eight. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.