Thread: Will we have enough workers?(Thoughts of an OBLer)

bhttp://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la ... -rightrail

Will we have enough workers?
In the near future, the U.S. may be begging people to cross the border.
By Shannon O'Neil, SHANNON O'NEIL, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, teaches in the political science department at Columbia University and is working on a book about Mexico-U.S. relations.
April 5, 2007


AS MANY IN Congress, in the media and in homes across the country debate the best way to stem the flow of undocumented workers across the Rio Grande, they don't seem to be aware that this perceived problem is becoming increasingly irrelevant. In fact, the immigration concern of the future could well be how to entice Mexicans and other Latin Americans to cross into the U.S. in the numbers we need.

Mexico is undergoing a demographic transition. According to the Mexican census bureau, long gone are the days of families with six, seven or 10 kids. Instead, Mexican women now average 2.2 births — only slightly above the average 2.1 births that occur in the United States and that are considered the "replacement rate," the level needed to maintain a stable population over time. Life expectancy in Mexico has increased to 75 years, compared to 77 in the United States. With fewer births and longer lives, by 2050, Mexico will become as old as the United States. In short, Mexico is about to age dramatically.

In the last 10 years, nearly 5 million Mexicans have come to the U.S. They've done many jobs, especially agricultural and construction work, keeping our food prices low and enabling the recent housing boom. The "pull" of plentiful U.S. jobs and higher salaries has been an important factor in this migration, but so has the "push" of Mexico's fast-growing, economically-active population, combined with weak job creation.

This situation is about to change. Job growth is a key component of President Felipe Calderon's agenda in Mexico. But even without faster job creation there, migration pressure — the "push" — will ease. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the economically-active population — which grew by more than 1 million new members each year during the 1990s — now adds just 500,000 annually. Over the next 10 years that means about 5 million fewer new workers compared to the previous decade — a number that's roughly equal to the population of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States. This suggests that demography may accomplish what border enforcement has not. In the next decade, the tide of northbound Mexican labor will likely recede.

At the same time, the United States is on the brink of its own massive demographic change. The first baby boomers are becoming eligible for Social Security benefits, and over the next 25 years, many will retire. The next generation, Generation X, with 15 million fewer members, doesn't have the critical mass to fill their shoes, much less new job openings. The generation after that, Generation Y — now ranging in age from babies to college students — is larger, so it will partly alleviate the labor crunch. But Gen Y workers are also likely to follow form and be better educated than their elders, which will push them toward high-skill careers. Immigrants will still be needed if the U.S. economy is to continue growing.

The immigration policy debate needs to grapple with these future facts. The current demographic situation — a high supply of Mexican migrants and high demand for them from U.S. employers — inexorably reflects the laws of supply and demand. Sealing our borders won't change that now or help us adjust to changing demographics and labor markets in the future.

Looking forward, the immigration system should balance the pressures of supply and demand, not flout them. It must provide a flexible and legal valve on the labor flow, one that will attract workers who will soon find that staying home isn't a bad economic choice.

This would include an efficient guest-worker program that rises and falls with labor needs and also provides a potential path to citizenship. It includes a dignified and fair process through which undocumented workers who are here now could be legitimized, and it includes long-term planning with Mexico (and other Latin American nations).

This practical strategy is the only approach to immigration reform that enhances the security of our international borders now and in the long term. It positions the U.S. for continued growth. And it goes far beyond merely reacting to the immediate situation with ineffective and ultimately counter-productive barriers.

OBLer all the way!!!

I wonder how long it took for this person to make all this up, it sure is way off of what the Heritage foundation is reporting or numbers USA or many others that study population and how all of this affects the United States and our job market, infrastructor etc.
They are sure bringing out the propaganda professionals lately, their's one right now on c-span from World Affairs Council ( Stephen Flynn) he is so full of crap.

There will always be enough citizens to take all the jobs this country can offer. But having to fight for an employee means that jobs would have to make their employment more tempting. They would have to consider paying a higher wage, giving benefits, child care, bonuses.
Right now it is an employers market. They hold all the cards.
Having less of a field to choose from means that the workers hold the cards. That is what big business is afraid of.

ProudAmerican, you have nailed it on the head!! It is the same as the real-estate market.

The real-estate people were all up in arms up here a bit ago when the news started reporting dips in mortgages, meaning they may lose their edge as it being a sellers market (higher selling prices and higher commissions), they wanted that knowledge suppresed.

The big business is the same. They do not want to hear that there are plenty of Americans that will take those jobs, so long as they provide decent wages appropriate to cost of living and as well, appropriate to the employees time and efforts.

My thoughts on this issue of big business and the gluttony of products on the market; We have more products on in our markets than Americans can use, which mean we have a surplus of workers to produce or to bring these products to market. So it goes, we all know that there are more choices than out there than Americans use. You go down one aisle just for cereals, and there is one entire aisle devoted to just cereal, whereas about a decade ago, it was half of that. This is just one type of product.

Now I am all for choices, which actually can mean lower prices for us all, yet with that we find the more choices we have, the lower the prices, then the more workers to maintain it all, then lower wage as there is then this excess of workers in the market to maintain all of those products/services.

And on like that. We are just killing ourselves with our own consumerism (now again I will say, I am an average American, but have also learned the difference between want and need, and found I need a whole lot less than the big business would like me to think I do).

If we all could start practising some old-fashioned tactics to saving more than we spend, big business would have no choice but to start toning down their attempts to sell and then we might find millions of illegal not having those "jobs that American won't do"!!!!

In fact, the immigration concern of the future could well be how to entice Mexicans and other Latin Americans to cross into the U.S. in the numbers we need.

This would include an efficient guest-worker program that rises and falls with labor needs and also provides a potential path to citizenship. It includes a dignified and fair process through which undocumented workers who are here now could be legitimized, and it includes long-term planning with Mexico (and other Latin American nations).

So even if there is a need for guest workers, which is debatable, we are supposed to give preference to Mexicans and other Latin American nationals. Really a selling point for the NAU/SPP. Immigrants from Asia, Europe and Africa need not apply.