Thread: Study: Legalized Pot won't Hinder Cartels

Study: Legalizing pot won't hinder Mexican cartels
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... =D9IQEJQG0

By MARTHA MENDOZA (AP) – 18 hours ago

SANTA CRUZ, California — Mexico's drug traffickers are likely to lose customers in America's largest pot consuming state if California legalizes marijuana, but they won't lose much money overall because California's residents already prefer to grow their own, according to a study released Tuesday.

That means the proposal on the state's November ballot to legalize marijuana also will do little to quell the drug gangs' violent and sophisticated organizations that generate billions of dollars a year, according to the study by the nonpartisan RAND Drug Policy Research Center.

Californians, who make up one-seventh of the U.S. marijuana market, already are farming marijuana at a much higher rate than in neighboring states and tend to buy domestic rather than smuggled marijuana, the study found.

Tuesday was harvest day on a medical marijuana farm in Northern California, where dozens of volunteers cut, trimmed and processed hundreds of shopping bags full of freshly snipped buds.

"We're already growing our own in California, and what happens in California so goeth the nation," said Valerie Corral, who helped found and runs a Santa Cruz medical marijuana collective. "Legalizing marijuana might undercut Mexican marijuana sales, but it isn't about to derail the cartels. It will just shift their focus."

California voters will decide next month whether to legalize and tax their own recreational use of marijuana. The measure is closely watched in Mexico, where more than 28,000 people have died in drug violence since Mexico's President Felipe Calderon launched his crackdown on organized crime in late 2006. Both Calderon and President Barack Obama agree the vast profits cartels collect in the U.S. — estimated by federal authorities between $18 billion and $35 billion a year — fuel drug wars south of the border.

RAND found that less than $2 billion of those profits come from marijuana and that losing the California marijuana market would cost cartels about $180 million — or 3 percent — of all the money they make exporting drugs to the U.S.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon said the California proposition is of critical importance.

"We are watching very closely, very closely, to what will happen in November. We are not certain what impact it will have on Mexico," he told The Associated Press in an interview last week.

Making even a slight dent in cartel profits makes legalization worth doing, said Drug Policy Alliance spokesman Stephen Gutwillig, who supports the Prop. 19 California ballot proposal.

"The bottom line is that creating any lawful, legitimate market for sales of marijuana to adults isn't good for the criminal syndicates that currently control this gigantic underground economy," Gutwillig said.

Proponents of the proposition say they want to lower prison costs and find new revenue from marijuana taxes, and that the measure could reduce violence associated with the illegal drug trade in California and Mexico.

The Obama administration disagrees, and U.S. drug czar Gil Kerlikowske told the AP that the new study backs them up.

"This report shows that despite the millions spent on marketing the idea, legalized marijuana won't reduce the revenue or violence generated by Mexican drug trafficking organizations," said Kerlikowske, head of the U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy. "The bottom line is that increased access and availability to marijuana jeopardizes the health and safety of our citizens."

Some former law enforcement officials, however, said it's hard to imagine there wouldn't be major cartel profits at stake.

"It's ridiculous to claim that ending prohibition won't have a big financial impact on these violent criminals' bottom lines," said Stephen Downing, a supporter of Prop. 19 and a former Los Angeles Police Department deputy chief of police.

But the RAND study concludes the only way to cut into the cartels' profits would be the unlikely scenario of legal marijuana growers taking over cartel distribution elsewhere in the U.S. Under that scenario, Mexican drug trafficking organizations, currently providing at least half the marijuana in the U.S., would lose roughly 20 percent of their total drug export revenues. Their remaining profits from more lucrative drugs like cocaine and heroin would continue to flow.

"If that happens, then legalization could reduce some of the Mexican drug violence in the long run," said Beau Kilmer, the study's lead author and co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center.

But the study authors said they don't believe the federal government will stand idly by if home-grown smugglers were to capture the entire national market now held by Mexico-sourced marijuana.

"It would be difficult not to notice that the quantities produced and perhaps even taxed were vastly larger than what is needed to supply the California market alone," said the study.

But some say it's already beginning to happen.

"Smuggling in the U.S will be easy, as marijuana can be shipped to consumers in other states through our mail system, said economist John Carnevale, a drug policy expert who has worked with the U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy for three administrations. "There is anecdotal information that this is already occurring."

Former San Jose, California, police chief Joseph McNamara says the proposed law's key goal isn't aimed at resolving Mexico's drug violence, and questioned RAND's assumptions about marijuana use and sales.

"Can a state facing a $19 billion dollar deficit casually pass up a chance to tax a product that escapes taxation only because it is illegal?" he asked.

Associated Press Writer Katherine Corcoran in Mexico City contributed to this report.

The Tea Party advocates smaller government. The legalization of marijuana would provide for a smaller gov't because you won't need as many DEA agents, and less police on the local & state levels. Our jails wouldn't be quite as crowded (in theory). And, it would take some of the violence away...of course, much of that violence is over cocaine and meth, but some of it stems from rival drug gangs fighting over marijuana transport and dealing.

Whether legal or illegal, people are going to use it. It's best to legalize it now and change our mindset about how we treat drug users...stop treating them as criminals and putting them into jail.

Let's stop Big Govt from telling us what we can and cannot put into our bodies. When it comes to children under 18, yes, we should have laws against marijuana (as well as alcohol), but for adults 18 & over, who are old enough to vote and fight for our country, they should have the right to use and purchase.

Ostrich

Nice try, Rand Corp., but no one will buy your study. Everyone knows that legalization of marijuana will indeed shut down the foreign drug cartels trafficking marijuana. If you're really worried about drug cartels, stop illegal immigration, pass an AZ immigration law, and secure your border. I hope California passes proposition 19, it should, and the results will be very good.

And remember, the only people who want to keep any aspect of the War on Drugs are either uniformed or working for the foreign cartels that legalization will put out of business.

Maybe this law might get rid of the weed gardens in OUR national parks and lessen the danger of hiking and camping in OUR parks.

If you met many of the young people who inhabit blue states and college towns all over the US, I don't think you would have much optimism that the legalization of addictive substances would have a beneficial effect. And that is not even including the joe sixpack types who become marginalized during times of high unemployment---such as now. In our state, the small towns, even in highly desirable locations, have a higher crime rate than the average in the state. The reason? Tweakers!

Is our war on drugs getting too expensive? Maybe the answer is cracking down on inefficiency in government---not abandoning it all together.

Originally Posted by Captainron

If you met many of the young people who inhabit blue states and college towns all over the US, I don't think you would have much optimism that the legalization of addictive substances would have a beneficial effect. And that is not even including the joe sixpack types who become marginalized during times of high unemployment---such as now. In our state, the small towns, even in highly desirable locations, have a higher crime rate than the average in the state. The reason? Tweakers!

Is our war on drugs getting too expensive? Maybe the answer is cracking down on inefficiency in government---not abandoning it all together.

I agree with you that tweekers have invaded and made small towns less safe. Meth should NEVER be legalized, because it makes people crazy after a while. I've seen it first hand. However, I've never seen anyone get crazy on pot. Plus, there is the addictiveness of it. I tried meth a few times in high school (Yes, I lived in a small high desert town). Everytime I'd do it, I'd have a stick of cinnamin gum. To this day, if I have that flavor gum, I can literally "taste" the meth in my nose. It's waaay more addictive, trust me. It was never available to me enough for me to become addicted (thank you, Lord) or Im quite sure I'd still be struggling with it like so many of my friends from high school still are (or so Im told...)

Originally Posted by Captainron

If you met many of the young people who inhabit blue states and college towns all over the US, I don't think you would have much optimism that the legalization of addictive substances would have a beneficial effect. And that is not even including the joe sixpack types who become marginalized during times of high unemployment---such as now. In our state, the small towns, even in highly desirable locations, have a higher crime rate than the average in the state. The reason? Tweakers!

Is our war on drugs getting too expensive? Maybe the answer is cracking down on inefficiency in government---not abandoning it all together.

captainiron, I tend to agree with you on this. Just exactly what is to be gained and lost by legalization of a mind/mood altering or addictive drug. Nobody knows the true impact on the criminal side of the business. However, I have no doubt in my mind that legalizing pot would create a sharp increase in the number of users and abusers. I certainly don't want to explain to my kids that a new drug is now available out there. Anyone who believes that that the use of and distribution of pot can be "controlled" is delusional. If it's recreational and mind altering, as pot is, it is going to flourish among fools and innocents while making the controllers rich. We shouldn't wish for another potentially dumbing down or harmful drug to be thrown into the market. What would be next...meth? crack? Get the point?

Our approach to drug addiction is wrong. We are using the law when we should be using treatment instead. You send someone to jail for using drugs but dont solve the underlying problem that caused the addiction in the first place. That is a recipe for failure. Treat drug addiction.

The cartels will go out of business if we treat drug addiction instead of trying to incarcerate it. Meantime it will create revenue for the treatment. I am not just talking about pot, but about all drugs. Where it is true that some people do have drug problems, it is also true that they are a very small percentage of the population.

Originally Posted by redpony353

Our approach to drug addiction is wrong. We are using the law when we should be using treatment instead. You send someone to jail for using drugs but dont solve the underlying problem that caused the addiction in the first place. That is a recipe for failure. Treat drug addiction.

The cartels will go out of business if we treat drug addiction instead of trying to incarcerate it. Meantime it will create revenue for the treatment. I am not just talking about pot, but about all drugs. Where it is true that some people do have drug problems, it is also true that they are a very small percentage of the population.

I agree 100%.

pot is also on the ballot here in arizona ...

i'm just not sure how i feel about it .. i was brainwashed against all drugs at a young age ... so there's just this feeling that it's wrong to make pot legal ..

then there's the other fact that i can't help but feel the government is trying to sedate the population by making pot OK ... with high unemployment and social distress it's like uncle sam is handing everyone a joint saying "here this will make you feel better "