Thread: U.S. Needs 4.6 MILLION New Apartments by 2030

More than half of L.A.'s 1 million poor households live in unaffordable or substandard rentals, study says

Gale Holland

Los Angeles and New York City top the list of U.S. cities with the most poor people laboring under heavy rent burdens, living in substandard housing, or both, according to a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs study released Wednesday.

More than half of Los Angeles’ 1 million very poor households, or 567,000, spent more than half their income on rent or resorted to undesirable housing in 2015, the study said.

In New York City, 44% of the very poor also struggled to afford housing, but because there were more of them — 1.8 million — the number falling into what the study called the “worst-case housing needs” category was higher, 815,000.

More than half of very low-income people in Miami, Phoenix and Riverside also struggled to pay the rent, the study said.

Rising rents have been linked to Los Angeles’ explosive homelessness problem, which grew 23% last year, to 58,000 people countywide, officials reported based on a January street and shelter count.

A report earlier this month by real estate firm Zillow found that 2,000 more people would be pushed into homelessness by a 5% rent hike — just over the 4.5% jump the company forecasts for L.A. next year. The company said rent increases are closely tied to burgeoning homelessness in cities including Los Angeles, Seattle and New York City, where there is little low-income housing for those priced out of rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods to go to.



Amidst a housing shortage, the L.A. City Council is taking a step toward making evictions harder to carry out. (June 29, 2017)

Nationwide, HUD reported that the number of households with worst-case housing needs ballooned 66% since 2001, with record increases between 2007 and 2011, when mortgage foreclosures and unemployment dramatically expanded. Those affected cut across racial and ethnic groups and regional borders, and included families with children, senior citizens and people with disabilities, HUD said in its report.

While incomes rose between 2013 and 2015, rents increased nearly as fast, and rent hikes for the poorest tenants outpaced income gains, the report said. The study excluded renters who receive government housing aid.

“Today’s affordable rental housing crisis requires that we take a more buisness-like approach on how the public sector can reduce the regulatory barriers so the private markets can produce more housing for more families,” HUD Secretary Ben Carson said in releasing the study.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...809-story.html

This just doesn't sound right to me.

It reminds me of a time when Reagan was president and congress had put in place some new regulations that allowed builders to take a 95% depreciation the first year.

Building took off in Dallas, new office buildings, lots of apartment complexes, then no one to rent them. They sat vacant for a long time. Out near Lake Ray Hubbard, you may still be able to see the foundations where they just dozed the apartment complexes.

It seems this was all being done in order to make money through the depreciation.

I saw a man interviewed and he said he had seen one building sell 5 times in a 30 minute period, with everyone taking the 95% depreciation, and not a dime changed hands.

I don't know, but I'd be willing to bet there was a government bail out in there somewhere.

Now one man did get sent to prison, don't remember to much about why.

It just doesn't smell right -

Final website checks needed at ALIPAC.us Please
https://www.alipac.us/f8/final-websi...please-349572/

272 new homes coming to three Irvine communities


Eastwood Village in Irvine includes the community of Beverly by Brookfield Residential. (Courtesy Irvine Co.)2 COMMENTS

By JONATHAN LANSNER | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
August 11, 2017 at 9:31 am

• 
• 

Eastwood Village in Irvine includes the community of Morro by The New Home Company. (Courtesy Irvine Co.)


Irvine’s getting three more new-home communities with a combined 272 homes.

Sales open on Saturday, Aug. 12 at Irvine Co.’s Eastwood Village in north Irvine at:

Morro: 81 homes by The New Home Co.; 3,513 to 3,794 square feet; four or five bedrooms; up to five and a half bathrooms; and two-car garages. Prices “from the mid to high $1 millions.”

Beverly: 80 homes by Brookfield Residential; 3,239 to 3,500 square feet; up to six bedrooms; up to four and a half bathrooms; “from the mid to high $1 millions.”

Avila: 111 homes by Richmond American Homes; 2,400 to 2,850 square feet; four or five bedrooms; up to five baths; two-car garages. Prices “from the low to mid $1 millions.”

The openings come as Orange County new home sales have cooled this year.

Builders sold 2,089 newly constructed sold in 2017’s first six months, down 3.5 percent from a year earlier. Sales of existing homes rose 3 percent in the same period.Developers got a countywide median selling price of $829,000 in the first half, off 0.2 percent from 2016.

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/11...e-communities/

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Apartment Construction at its Highest Level in 20 Years, with Denver, Nashville Joining NYC as 2017’s Hottest Rental Markets

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We’d need 4.6 million new apartments by 2030 to meet demand for rental living and keep prices in check, per data from the National Multifamily Housing Council. That’s about 373K new units each year on average, a number that’s rather optimistic considering the pace of apartment construction in the last decade. So how feasible is this plan? Our most recent study on the apartment market suggests there’s still hope for the country’s growing renter population.

According to data from property intelligence company and our sister division Yardi Matrix, apartment construction is at a 20-year high, with most of our country’s biggest cities seeing significant upgrades in rental stock. After a slow post-recession period, the market started rebounding in 2012 and by 2014 new supply had amounted to more than 237,000 units delivered in one year, well above historical averages.

Between 1997 and 2006, annual completions averaged 212,740 units.

In 2017, apartment completions are expected to top 345,000, a 21% increase compared to last year’s deliveries when more than 285,000 units saw the light of day.

Hot Urban Markets See Rents Softening as Developers Ramp Up Apartment Construction

After peaking in 2014 at 5.1%, monthly rent prices rose just 1.5% to $1,316 in May, the lowest annual growth rate we’ve seen in more than three years. In 2017, the average U.S. rent is expected to increase a modest 3.9%.

Does this mean apartment prices are finally taking a break from rent growth? Apparently so, and thanks to intensified apartment construction, that’s even the case with some of the country’s historically tight (or rather outrageously expensive) markets. Close to 6,200 new units entered the San Francisco metro area in 2016, with approx. 5,400 apartments expected to be delivered this year and another 9,500 under construction. While demand is still strong in the city, this flood of new rentals coming online is finally putting a damper on the incessant rent growth that pushed rental costs up a whopping 49% in the last 5 years.

Rents in San Francisco have been slowing down for the last 10 months, with the pace of growth currently at its lowest level in the last 2 years. Rents in May 2017 were $2,497 in the SF metro, a meager 0.5% increase y-o-y. By comparison, in May 2016 annual increases stood at 6.2% and a year before rent growth was in double digits, approx. 11.9%.

And San Francisco isn’t alone in the rent deceleration game. Rents are cooling in other urban hotspots favored by young professionals such as Houston, Austin, Denver, and Portland. Additionally, 6 of the country’s top 10 priciest markets even experienced rent drops in May, including Manhattan, Boston, and San Jose.

“From an affordability standpoint, things are starting to look better for renters,” says Doug Ressler, Yardi Matrix senior analyst. “Rent growth is slowing down, even in the country’s most expensive markets and it doesn’t stop at that. With more units on the table, renters may be able to get some discounts and concessions on new leases, including one month of free rent, waived move-in fees, and free gym memberships.”

New York Leads Rental Boom, with Texas’ Largest Metros Right on Its Tail

The rental apartment boom is in full swing and it stretches from coast to coast. As an all-time favorite playground for developers, New York’s expansion knows no bounds. With more than 17,000 units delivered in 2016 and nearly 27,000 apartment homes scheduled for completion this year, the New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area plays big. And it has every reason to as, even with this huge wave of new apartments entering the market, occupancy is still high in the metro area, approx. 97.5% according to data from Yardi Matrix.

Manhattan is still king of New York apartment construction, but only a couple dozen units sets it apart from the runner-up, Brooklyn. Both boroughs will see approx. 7,000 new units added to their rental inventories in 2017, with Queens landing in third place as 4,165 units are on schedule to enter the market. Jersey City, where rents are flatlining, will also add a consistent 2,000 new units, furthering the prospect of a softening rental market.



Dallas-Fort Worth, the job-centric Texas mega-hub that has seen the largest population increases in the entire country, adding approx. 143K new residents from 2015 to 2016, is second when it comes to new apartment supply.

No less than 25,000 new units are planned for completion this year, making Dallas even more desirable for renters who seek affordability and variety in their housing choices. The local rental market is relatively stable with rent growth at a moderate 3.5% y-o-y. Average rents in the Metroplex hover around $1,094, significantly lower than the national average and half of what New Yorkers shell out on rent on a monthly basis. Moreover, with a diverse economic sector and steady job growth, the employment picture is rock-solid in D-FW, so it’s no wonder young professionals are arriving in droves. Local nonfarm employment rose 3.3% on an annual basis in May, well above the national increase of 1.5%, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.



Unlike Dallas, Houston’s economy is mostly tied to the energy industry and concerns over fluctuating oil prices were powerful enough to cause drops in rental rates last year. Combined with record-high apartment completions, estimated at approx. 18,000 units in 2017, Houston’s rental market may well become a renter’s market – at least for the year ahead. Already one of the most reasonably priced big metros in the country, Houston has seen negative rent growth over the past year, largely due to supply outstripping demand. Rental rates are now $1,041 on avg., a 1.1% decrease year-over-year.

The other two fast-growing metros in Texas, Austin and San Antonio, are coming on strong in terms of new supply, each bolstering apartment numbers by approx. 7,400 units.

Denver, Nashville, the Twin Cities Join the Ranks of the Best Markets for New Apartments

The rental boom is not confined to the usual markets of apartment developers such as Miami, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC. Benefitting from thriving job markets and substantial growth in high-income jobs particularly in the tech sector, cities such as Denver and Seattle were bound to see their apartment markets explode. Denver’s multifamily stock will expand by 13,100 new units this year, with Seattle following closely at 10,100 new units.



An unexpected, though pleasant, surprise for those who cherish the Midwestern lifestyle, is the intensified construction activity taking over the Twin Cities. A robust 6,700 new units are expected to be completed in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in 2017, and this may mean more perks and amenities in store for local renters. New communities such as Foundry Lake Street in Uptown Minneapolis offer the best of urban living and could easily rival premier properties on either coast for half the price. Rents in the Twin Cities sit somewhere around $1,184, lower than most of the country’s biggest cities and cheaper than its larger neighbor Chicago.

Foundry Lake Street Apartments in Minneapolis

While Chicago has always been more expensive than other Midwestern hubs, winds are now getting milder for renters in the area as new supply kicks in.

Chicagoland has seen its fair share of development in recent years, with 7,800 new rentals projected to hit the market in 2017. Apartments in the area now command $1,410 on avg., basically flatlining year-over-year.

Following the apartment flood south, Nashville stands out as one of the best performing housing markets in 2017. The recent investments in hospitality, technology, and health-care projects in the Nashville metro have translated into more jobs and increased demand for housing which in turn favor multifamily construction.

“The number of new apartments popping on Nashville’s housing scene is astonishing,” added Doug Ressler of Yardi Matrix. “As many as 8,500 units are about to enter the market – the highest point of inventory growth in terms of sheer volume over the last 5 years – and there’s still room for growth. The area is slowly becoming a favorite relocation destination for people all across the country, both young workers looking for a healthy work environment and retirees in search of quieter grounds.” Job growth is at 4% in Nashville, the second-highest rate of increase among those posted by the 100 largest U.S. metros.

The Other Side of the Coin: Low Supply Keeps Pressure Up on California’s Fastest-Growing Metro Areas

When there are more renters than rental units, prices rise. There’s no way around that and this is one of the reasons why cities such as Sacramento and Riverside will continue to put pressure on renters’ pockets. Riverside is the 11th fastest-growing metro area by population increase, having gained approx. 52,400 renters between 2015 and 2016, more than both Greater LA (+41,619) and the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro (+36,939).

Sacramento is not far behind, with 28,830 new residents moving into the city. While both SF and LA are brimming with construction activity, keeping rent growth somewhat under control, things are quite the opposite in the Sacto area and the Inland Empire.

Much like in 2016, Sacramento will barely see 740 new units delivered in large-scale developments this year.

It may come as no surprise then that rents are at an all-time high in the city, having increased a worrying 8.2% year-over-year. Riverside is doing slightly better with approx. 1,170 new units on schedule to be completed in 2017, but still well below what is needed to respond to the growing demand for apartments.
Other low-ranking areas include St. Louis, Cleveland, and Buffalo where large-scale development is practically insignificant, all adding less than 2,000 units to their rental inventories. Among the 50 largest metros in the U.S., New Orleans is the least active with a lackluster 500 units projected to come online in 2017.

The Rise of Renting Driven by Millennials and Baby Boomers Alike

Consistent employment growth and Millennials entering their prime renting years remain key drivers of the apartment market. But it’s not just young people that rent anymore. While flexibility and ease of mind used to be top priorities primarily for the younger generation in the past, things have started to change. There’s an increasing number of baby boomers who choose renting over buying precisely because this way of life comes with fewer financial strings attached and indisputably less hassle related to property upkeep. Moreover, renting puts people in prime locations, within walking distance to jobs, shops, and entertainment, which would perhaps be hard to get in otherwise.

“Lifestyle changes, a housing-stock shortage and high homes prices have led to more people than ever – of all ages – choosing to rent an apartment rather than buy a home”, Doug Ressler said. Of the 42.8 million renter-occupied households, most renters come from the ranks of Gen Y – approx. 36%. Baby boomers now make 30% of the renter demographic, an increase of 2% from 2014 to 2015, and growing.

Best and Worst Apartment Markets in 2017

The table below contains new supply projected to come online in 2017 in 101 metropolitan areas across the U.S. The metros have been ranked from the best to the weakest in terms of number of new apartment completions based on data estimates from Yardi Matrix. All metros containing less than 300 units have been eliminated from the ranking. *The Bronx and Staten Island are not included in the New York metro data set.

Search:

Metro Area	Apartment Supply 2017	Population Change % 2015-2016	Job Growth 2016-2017
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA*	26,739	0.2%	1.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	24,960	2.0%	3.3%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	17,960	1.9%	1.5%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	14,667	0.3%	1.0%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	13,466	1.1%	2.8%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	13,142	1.6%	2.5%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	13,098	0.9%	1.5%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	11,797	1.6%	3.1%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	10,114	1.9%	2.5%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN	8,557	2.0%	4.0%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	7,792	-0.2%	0.7%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	7,558	0.6%	1.7%
Austin-Round Rock, TX	7,435	2.9%	2.8%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	7,422	2.0%	2.5%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	7,309	2.1%	2.4%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	6,658	0.9%	2.0%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	6,529	2.0%	3.1%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	5,857	2.5%	4.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	5,415	0.8%	1.9%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	4,802	1.7%	1.8%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA	4,668	0.8%	1.4%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV	4,623	2.2%	2.9%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (Delaware Valley)	4,622	0.1%	1.6%
Salt Lake City, UT	4,446	1.6%	3.2%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	4,428	0.5%	1.4%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	4,371	2.1%	3.3%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	4,054	0.2%	0.6%
Columbus, OH	3,823	1.1%	1.6%
Kansas City, MO-KS	3,719	1.0%	1.9%
Jacksonville, FL	3,397	2.1%	3.5%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI	3,220	-0.1%	0.3%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN	3,081	0.9%	2.1%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	2,633	0.5%	2.0%
Raleigh, NC	2,415	2.5%	2.6%
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA	2,400	2.0%	2.6%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC	2,175	2.2%	2.2%
College Station-Bryan, TX	1,963	2.0%	2.8%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC	1,926	1.3%	0.9%
St. Louis, MO-IL	1,856	0.0%	0.9%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC (Hampton Roads)	1,805	0.2%	-0.1%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA	1,688	1.1%	1.6%
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC	1,797	1.5%	3.5%
Baton Rouge, LA	1,652	0.7%	0.5%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH	1,651	-0.2%	0.8%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA	1,627	1.7%	1.3%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	1,615	0.0%	2.1%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL	1,556	2.7%	3.6%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	1,553	0.5%	2.0%
Oklahoma City, OK	1,550	1.2%	1.1%
Richmond, VA	1,550	0.9%	1.7%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	1,434	-0.3%	1.3%
Fort Collins, CO	1,322	1.8%	4.0%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY	1,291	-0.2%	0.6%
Burlington, NC	1,265	1.2%	1.5%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT	1,210	-0.1%	0.6%
Knoxville, TN	1,194	0.9%	0.7%
Corpus Christi, TX	1,186	0.4%	2.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	1,164	1.2%	2.9%
Dayton, OH	1,044	0.1%	0.5%
Rochester, NY	1,011	-0.2%	-0.5%
Boise City, ID	982	2.3%	3.7%
Wilmington, NC	957	1.8%	2.2%
Madison, WI	919	1.3%	1.9%
Toledo, OH	912	-0.1%	-0.2%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	885	0.1%	0.8%
Tulsa, OK	884	0.7%	-0.2%
Pittsburgh, PA	876	-0.4%	0.6%
Columbia, SC	859	1.0%	1.0%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI	851	0.8%	2.3%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL	822	0.2%	1.0%
Lexington-Fayette, KY	766	1.2%	2.2%
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA	738	1.3%	1.1%
Waco, TX	729	1.1%	1.2%
Tallahassee, FL	725	0.5%	3.9%
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL	722	1.6%	2.0%
Killeen-Temple, TX	709	1.2%	2.8%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	694	3.1%	0.5%
El Paso, TX	694	0.6%	2.8%
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX	688	1.3%	2.0%
Eugene, OR	664	1.9%	1.6%
Jackson, MS	661	0.1%	0.5%
Lubbock, TX	647	1.3%	1.1%
Columbus, GA-AL	612	-1.0%	0.7%
Greensboro-High Point, NC	611	0.6%	1.3%
Reno, NV	588	1.8%	2.7%
Chattanooga, TN-GA	577	0.8%	2.5%
Savannah, GA	557	1.4%	1.9%
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC	545	3.9%	4.2%
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort, SC	540	1.9%	1.3%
Portland-South Portland, ME	518	0.5%	1.2%
Macon-Bibb County, GA	505	-0.3%	1.2%
Syracuse, NY	504	-0.5%	1.0%
New Orleans-Metairie, LA	501	0.5%	-0.3%
Fort Wayne, IN	466	0.6%	1.4%
Lansing-East Lansing, MI	451	0.7%	2.4%
Wichita, KS	424	0.3%	-0.5%
Huntsville, AL	403	1.1%	2.6%
Stockton-Lodi, CA	388	1.4%	2.0%
Worcester, MA-CT	333	0.2%	1.0%
Manchester-Nashua, NH	318	0.4%	1.7%
Kennewick-Richland, WA	304	1.7%	1.3%

About RENTCafé and How We Compiled the Data

RENTCafé is a nationwide apartment search website that enables renters to easily find apartments and houses for rent throughout the United States.

To compile this report, RENTCafé’s research team analyzed new apartment construction data across 134 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The study is exclusively based on apartment data related to buildings containing 50 or more units. New supply refers to 50+ unit properties which have a completion date projected for 2017.

Building and rent data was provided by our sister company, Yardi Matrix, a business development and asset management tool for brokers, sponsors, banks and equity sources underwriting investments in the multifamily, office, industrial and self-storage sectors.
Data on population changes from 2015 to 2016 comes from the U.S. Census Bureau. Job growth data was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and refers to 12-month percent changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment from May 2016 to May 2017.

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental...-high-in-2017/

I just talked with someone in CO who said there is a program going on, under contract by the government to check out and make a determination if houses are inhabitable and then doze the ones they deem not.

Why do I think this is a way of creating a 'need' for houses.

Please God, why does Texas need all those apartments? Who do they think will live there?

Maybe they should decide to build them in North Dallas, that would put the brakes on the projects.

Report: Denver is 6th in the nation for new apartment construction ...

Jul 12, 2017 - In the Denver metro area, 13,142 apartments are projected to be completed by year's end.