Thread: Taking On Arizona: Will Obama Gain or Lose Support?

July 7, 2010, 7:00 AM ET.

Taking On Arizona: Will Obama Gain or Lose Support?


By Peter Brown
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

The question isn’t whether President Barack Obama’s decision to file a lawsuit to block Arizona’s new immigration law is a political risk. There’s little doubt of that. What’s unclear is whether taking on public opinion on this emotionally charged issue will cost him more votes among the overall electorate than he will gain among the vocal minority who find the law abhorrent.

The American people like what Arizona has done to combat illegal immigration, polls show. They are comfortable with the law-enforcement-only approach that the president disdains.

The political unknown about the Arizona lawsuit – the state’s law has become the symbol of the fight over illegal immigration — and its electoral repercussions involves the question of comparative salience: Your third-grade social studies teacher may have told you that majority opinion rules in the U.S., but that is not always the case.

The majority doesn’t always prevail on political issues.

Clearly, based on the polling data, the American people were opposed to the health care overhaul that Congress passed and the president signed in March. We’ll see in November whether that issue will have electoral repercussions for the president and his party.

Often a well-organized and dedicated minority can overcome a majority that is less committed to a cause. That is what the White House hopes will happen politically with immigration.

The Big Question

The key political question on the lawsuit is this: Will the goodwill that the Obama administration gains among Hispanics and other immigrant-rights supporters be worth the loss among the much larger group of voters who disagree with him on Arizona?

The Justice Department on Tuesday asked the U.S. District Court in Arizona to block implementation of the law scheduled for July 29.

The law would allow police to ask people stopped in connection with a non-immigration crime to prove they are in the U.S. legally.

It is expected that U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton, appointed to the federal bench by President Bill Clinton in 2000, will handle the case. She is already handling other lawsuits challenging the Arizona law, and just last week ruled that Mexico can file a legal brief opposing the law.

The federal suit, which challenges Arizona’s ability to pre-empt Congress’s role in setting immigration policy, becomes one of six challenges to the new law. But by filing its own lawsuit, rather than joining or endorsing one of the others, the White House is making a political statement.

Despite condemnation of the law by the Obama administration – the president labeled it “misdirectedâ€

62% of Hispanics in Arizona FAVOR 1070...

Obama is finished. His approval ratings were in the toilet BEFORE the Arizona fiasco. Now, he's pushing an issue on the wrong side of two thirds of Americans. Lets just hope he takes plenty of the other bums down with him.

Obama doesnt respect any law that was made without him. He wants to call all the shots. Our Constitutoion doesnt mean a thing to him. Our southern border is wide open and Obama refuses to secure it unless he gets an amnesty program. OBAMA'S NEXT PHASE WILL BE MARTIAL LAW, SO HE CAN KEEP ON RULING OVER ALL OF US INDEFINITELY. HE CAN MAKE THAT CALL AT ANY TIME. WANT TO BET THERE WILL BE NO ELECTIONS?

Originally Posted by butterbean

Obama doesnt respect any law that was made without him. He wants to call all the shots. Our Constitutoion doesnt mean a thing to him. Our southern border is wide open and Obama refuses to secure it unless he gets an amnesty program. OBAMA'S NEXT PHASE WILL BE MARTIAL LAW, SO HE CAN KEEP ON RULING OVER ALL OF US INDEFINITELY. HE CAN MAKE THAT CALL AT ANY TIME. WANT TO BET THERE WILL BE NO ELECTIONS?

I have seen no evidence that Obama will declare Martial Law and cancel our elections.

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

The majority doesn’t always prevail on political issues.

When the majority doesn't prevail on political issues then it is time to clean house in Washington DC.

Obama has demonstrated he doesn't care what the majority want. When the people didn't want that healthcare bill, as written, he ignored them. Same is true now with the majority behind Arizona's law. He is going to do what he wants to do to further his agendas. So this being his pattern imo it will heavily affect the Nov elections.

I was over at Irish Voice which is fairly liberal and one of their contributors wrote how "Obama takes on the Immigrant Lynch Mob" referring to the lawsuit against SB 1070. Over 90% of the responses are very negative, it seems most Americans get it and are sick and have it up to here of the "help the poor immigrants", or "it's racism" BS, they KNOW it's all a heap of giant lies.

I would say this will cost Obama and the Dems, unless non-citizens criminally vote en mass.

Obama is finished. Just about the whole country dislikes what he's doing. Even the liberals are turning against him. Did anyone see the article yesterday on the Yahoo home page: "Even the Elites are Turning Against Obama." Limbaugh was reading the article with relish on his radio show this morning.

Things look so bad for ole Barak, I doubt he'll even win the Democratic nomination in 2012. Even the Globe (or was it the Enquirer) has a frontpage story: "OBAMA ISN'T A CITIZEN!" Its all closing in on the guy. Too bad. What does he expect when he's running a government AGAINST the American people. The Arizona fiasco being typical of everything this dunce does.

Unfortunately, there are too many Americans that are either not interested or uninformed about this law. I work with a lovely black lady who is convinced that if she travels to AZ she might be stopped because of her color. I asked her if she planned on breaking any laws while in AZ and she became totally confused, so I had to explain that if she got caught speeding, jaywalking or robbing a bank, she would have to show i.d. - just like here in IL. Honestly, this women is intelligent and well-educated but has been lied to so many times that she believes what she hears in the mainstream media.