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  1. #1
    Senior Member zeezil's Avatar
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    Fewer Illegal Immigrants In U.S., But Partisans Argue Over C

    Fewer Illegal Immigrants In U.S., But Partisans Argue Over Cause
    BY SEAN HIGGINS

    INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

    Posted 8/12/2008



    The illegal immigrant population in America is declining, experts and demographers say, due to the economic downturn and a step-up in enforcement measures.

    A study out late last month by the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors restrictionist measures, found that the number of illegals, estimated at 12.5 million in 2007, has fallen to 11.2 million today, a decline of 11%.

    Other experts and activist groups generally agree that the population has fallen. But by how much and — more importantly — why remains in dispute.

    "The data does say there is a decline in this group and this group is largely illegal," said Jeff Passel, senior demographer for the Pew Hispanic Forum.

    But Passel says he doesn't know why. The data are too preliminary.

    Activist groups are less hesitant. CIS argues that enforcement is a key factor. Others, especially pro-immigration groups, say the shaky economy is the reason.

    The debate is important because it provides insight into whether the current "secure the borders first" strategy works. If that becomes the consensus, additional stricter measures may come out of Congress.

    For example, the U.S. government is currently mulling a new rule that would require all contractors with the government to use the "e-verify" system to prove that their workers are legal.

    Citing Census Bureau data, the CIS study notes that the population of adult Hispanic immigrants 40 years old or younger with a high school degree or less — those most likely to be here illegally — had fallen from more than 7.7 million in August 2007 to about 6.9 million this summer. That would put the illegal population just below where it stood in early 2005.

    Over the same period, the number of all other adult immigrants, including legal ones, has risen from about 8.6 million to 9.3 million. That suggests to CIS that illegals increasingly have simply moved back home — or not bothered to cross the border in the first place.

    The CIS study also notes that the rate of decline in illegals is seven times higher than that of the number removed by federal law enforcement over the same period, suggesting they are leaving on their own.

    The center also sees a correlation between that data and the last congressional debate over immigration reform. A bill co-sponsored by Sens. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and Arizona's John McCain, now the GOP presidential candidate, that would have created a guest worker program and a pathway to legalization was unveiled with much fanfare in early 2007. By that summer it had stalled for good, and debate moved to securing the borders.

    The declines began as the federal government stepped up border-control methods, including building a fence and other efforts such as the expansion of the employer e-verify system.

    Mark Krikorian, CIS executive director, says the economy also played a "significant" role. The jobless rate for less-educated Hispanic immigrants rose from 4.5% in August 2007 to 7% now. But Krikorian says the decline started before the signs of an economic slump, suggesting enforcement was key.

    "First of all, the drop started before the spike in unemployment was seen with those same people," he said. "In past economic slowdowns, the dips in the illegal population happened after unemployment spiked for those people. This happened the other way around."

    Pro-immigration groups don't agree. The Immigration Policy Center concurs that some decline in the numbers is likely. But it cites data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve that suggest industries that tend to employ illegal immigrants — mainly the construction, service and retail sectors — were hit with downturns before August 2007.

    Housing starts peaked in January 2006 at an annual rate of 2.273 million units. They've since tumbled more than 50%.

    "Undocumented immigrants would respond to these sorts of changing conditions in the specific industries where they actually work, not to changes in the overall employment rate for all Latino adults with no more than a high-school diploma," the IPC said in its response to the CIS study.

    Michele Waslin, senior policy analyst for the IPC, says the decline probably isn't that large. Many illegals are simply going underground.

    "We have anecdotal evidence that some people are not leaving the country, but they are certainly leaving those states or cities where the enforcement measures are being implemented," Waslin said.

    The economy-is-the-reason theory has some surprising support: The restrictionist House Immigration Reform Caucus, headed by Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Calif.

    "I don't think increased enforcement is the key reason," Bilbray spokesman Kurt Bardella said. "Certainly enforcement does help . . . but overall, the economy speaks for itself right now. There is no incentive for an illegal immigrant to come here."

    Bilbray believes the illegal immigration question cannot be resolved without addressing the issue of employers willing to hire illegals.

    Madeline Zavodny, associate professor of economics at Agnes Scott College, agrees that the "interior enforcement," as she puts it, has more effect. Border enforcement can have the effect of keeping immigrants in the country, she says.

    Many immigrants travel back and forth to visit family. With tighter security, those in the U.S. are more likely to hunker down and stay here.

    "They know it is harder and more expensive to re-cross," Zavodny said.

    She is skeptical of a mass exodus. The number of illegals likely declined, she says, but it is "awfully early to giving concrete numbers."

    The underlying census data have to be weighed against various factors, and they will be adjusted in light of new data.

    "Suppose you observe fewer young, Hispanic, low-education males, which are predominately illegal immigrants. Is that because there are fewer to survey or did the survey just happen to catch fewer by accident?" Zavodny said. "It is the kind of thing we can unfortunately only judge retrospectively."
    http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDA ... e=20080812
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  2. #2
    MW
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    A study out late last month by the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors restrictionist measures, found that the number of illegals, estimated at 12.5 million in 2007, has fallen to 11.2 million today, a decline of 11%.
    IMO, this study is flawed because the 12.5 million number is wrong.

    "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" ** Edmund Burke**

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