Thread: Real-Time Illegal Immigration Statistics

http://breakingnews.redstate.com/blogs/ ... statistics

Here are some statistics from the Los Angeles Times:

40 percent of all workers are working for cash and not paying taxes. Why would they want to be legal and pay taxes? They would be able to start bringing the rest of their families to the USA.

75 percent of people on L.A.'s most-wanted list are illegal aliens.
Over two-thirds of all births are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal whose births were paid for by the taxpayers.

Nearly 25 percent of all inmates in California detention centers are here illegally.

Over 300,000 illegals are living in garages.

The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegals from south of the border.

Nearly 60 percent of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal.

Of the 10 million people in Los Angeles County, 5.1 million speak English and 3.9 million speak Spanish.

21 radio stations in Los Angeles are Spanish speaking.

More statistics:

Less than 2 percent of illegals are picking crops but 29 percent are on welfare.

Over 70 percent of the U.S. annual population growth (over 90 percent of California, Florida and New York) are from immigration.

29 percent of inmates in the federal prisons are illegal aliens.

The lifetime fiscal impact (taxes minus services used) for the average adult Mexican immigrant is a negative.

They also send between about $15 billion back to Mexico to assist their families and prop up the corrupt Mexican government that keeps most of its citizens in poverty. How about a revolt in their own country!

It cost Los Angeles $276 million in welfare costs for 100,000 children of illegal aliens.

Based on a one-year in-depth study, a researcher estimates there are about 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States who have had an average of four victims each. This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day

Schurman-Kauflin breaks down the 1,500 cases reviewed this way:

525, or 35 percent, were child molestations

358, or 24 percent, were rapes

617, or 41 percent, were sexual homicides and serial murders

Originally Posted by Nadys

Here are some statistics from the Los Angeles Times:

Could you provide the link to the LA Times?

Can anyone provide a link to the LA Times that could prove they published this?

I folowed the link provided and it is not a real newspaper. When I went to teh link I found antoher link that claims real time stats
http://www.immigrationcounters.com/index.html
They claim the following as their sources



DATA COLLECTION METHODS: This site does not contain any original research, it contains the numbers released to the public so the visitor does not have to mine the numerous reports themselves. Only the most respected sources are used. Significant effort is made to provide what is determine to be the most reliable data and as such is published in good faith to maintain integrity of data . We find that the data used is sufficiently reliable for the purposes of this site.

The method is simple, find the number as far back as available, total this to the current date and project the rate of increase based on the previous trend. Some counters are formulated with their beginning numbers that date back several years, others because data was not available begin more recently. The beginning year will be noted with each counter data source. Trend data from the previous year are used to set the clock update rates. Each counter began running on 1 June, 2006.

The data is reviewed periodically yet because of the nature of numbers related to illegal immigration, information on this Site may contain technical inaccuracies. Information may be changed or updated without notice when more data becomes available. ImmigrationCounters.com provides the Site as a free source of useful information to the general public. It is the only known Site that posts the totals real-time and displays this in the most basic format. More counters will be added as the data becomes available.

It is worth noting that a percentage of illegal immigrants contribute economically to the American economy, yet no data supports a net increase to the country. The ramifications of illegal immigration goes well beyond just numbers, it impacts all aspects of society. This topic is covered in greater detail on the homepage.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN COUNTRY:

Background: Because of the nature of illegal immigration only the nearest estimates are possible. Illegal immigration generally falls into one of two categories: those who entered the country illegally and those who were admitted legally as visitors or on temporary work status and overstayed their visa. The legal status of non-citizens is not routinely ascertained in censuses or surveys with sample sizes sufficient for making accurate national population estimates. An alien registration program at the INS, requiring all resident aliens to report their status annually was discontinued by Congress in 1981. It is unrealistic to expect the Census Bureau (CB) to locate the majority of illegal immigrants in the country, nor is it realistic to expect illegal immigrants to fill out census forms. By not revealing their legal status and other personal information, they seek to avoid coming to the government‘s attention. To compound the problem, government officials and researchers often underestimate the effectiveness of the communication networks and the scale of documentation fraud among the illegal immigrant population. The following article highlights how the government has failed to address document fraud.

http://www.cis.org/articles/2002/back302.html

In spite of these limitations, the Census Bureau did develop some estimates of their own. Their estimates at the time of the 2000 Census indicated that the illegal immigration population was about 8 million. Using this number, it can be reasonably estimated that the illegal-alien population grew by about half a million a year in the 1990s. This estimate is derived from a draft report given to the House Immigration Subcommittee by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) that estimated the illegal population was 3.5 million in 1990. For the illegal population to have reached 8 million by 2000, the net increase had to be 400,000 to 500,000 per year during the 1990s. The Census Bureau currently estimates a net increase of 500,000 illegal immigrants annually and a current population of about 10.5 million. This number represents one of the lower estimates and is disputed by many in the industry.

In a document by The Pew Hispanic Center, “Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Undocumented Population“, March 2005. They estimated about 11.1 million illegal aliens the previous year and 11.5 to 12 million as of March 2006. The March 2006 estimate found that illegal immigrants have a total of about 3.1 million children who were born in the U.S, and are now U.S. citizens, other sources place this number at 5 million. The report is provided here.

http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=44

On the high end of the spectrum are some private groups that randomly select single sources of data, such as an interview with a border patrol agent or with one elected official. Those sources have placed the numbers around 30 million. Until more data is provided, ImmigrationCounters.com does not yet side with the 30 million figure, yet notes that it may indeed be that high.

ImmigrationCounters.com subscribes to estimates from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) of 700,000 per year who enter illegally (includes children) or are visa overstay fugitives. We also side with an independent report from Bear Stearns, “The Underground Labor Force Is Rising To The Surface“, January 3, 2005. This report estimates the number to be around 20 million based on ancillary sources of data that provide evidence the rate of growth is much greater than the Census Bureau estimated. The Bear Stearns report is provided here.

http://www.bearstearns.com/bscportal/pd ... ground.pdf

http://www.usdoj.gov/archive/ag/testimo ... timony.htm

Counter Data: Department of Homeland Security and Bear Stearns report, Increase of 700,000 per year. 700k / 12 months = 58,333 per month = 1,944 per day = 81 per hr = 1.35 per minute = .02 per second. Beginning Jan 05 to June 06 = 291,665. Starting number 20,291,665 and update at 1.35 per minute or .02 per second. Clock start date is 1 June 06.

MONEY WIRED TO MEXICO:

Background: In October 2002, Banco de Mexico issued a set of rules instructing all firms dedicated to the service of funds transfers to provide monthly information on the amounts and volume of remittance sent to Mexico, classified by Mexican recipient state.

Source: The Miami Herald, February 01, 2006 “Remittances reach US$20 billion in 2005.” “Remittances sent home by Mexicans living abroad rose to US$20 billion in 2005, a 17 percent increase over the year before, the Bank of Mexico reported on Tuesday.” The report is provided below.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/16816.html

Source: Business Week Online, DECEMBER 28, 2005, “Channeling the Remittance Flood.” In 2005, migrant workers in the U.S. sent $52 billion back to Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: Inter-American Development Bank, March 2006 report, “Remittance 2005”. Mexico remains the largest recipient of remittances, at over US$20 billion, followed by Brazil and Columbia which for the first time reached over US$6 and US$4 billion respectively. Central America and the Dominican Republic combined to reach over US$11 billion; and the Andean countries totaled almost US$9 billion.

Based on a projected annual increase of 17% per year, this counter adjusts at that rate. Starting number is $21,416,666,665 and update at $6,558 per minute or $109 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

COST OF SOCIAL SERVICES FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS:

Background: Total cost for social services including food stamps, AFDC, SSI, housing, Social Security, earned income tax credit, Medicaid, Medicare A & B, medical services in emergency rooms, increased local government services, and other programs. Includes costs of $4.3 billion annually due to unemployment payments made to American citizens who lost their jobs to illegal immigrants and the lost tax revenue and economic impact due to their unemployment. American citizens and legal immigrants who lost jobs to illegal immigrants is often due to unscrupulous employers hiring them at much lower rates than American citizens can sustain. The data does not include the totals for private charitable donations and services to illegal immigrants. This is likely over $1 billion and has repercussions that impact American citizens who otherwise could have benefited from those sources, requiring them to seek out government services to a greater extent.

Although there are temporary benefits to cheap labor, there are significant long term costs associated with circumventing the laws. The Bear Stearns report estimates the social cost at $30 billion per year. They estimate that about 5 million illegal workers are collecting wages on a cash basis and avoiding income taxes, costing the United States about $35 billion per year.

Source : Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), “The High Costs of Cheap Labor“, August 2004, California alone has estimated that the net cost to the state of providing government services to illegal immigrants approached $3 billion during a single fiscal year. “The fact that states must bear the cost of federal failure turns illegal immigration, in effect, into one of the largest unfunded federal mandates“. This excellent report is provided here.

http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscal.pdf

Source FAIR: “Dr. Donald Huddle, a Rice University economics professor, published a systematic analysis of those costs as of 1996. The study also estimated the tax payments of those same aliens. At that time, the illegal alien population was estimated to be about five million persons. The estimated fiscal cost of those illegal aliens to the federal, state and local governments was about $33 billion. This impact was partially offset by an estimated $12.6 billion in taxes paid to the federal, state and local governments, resulting in a net cost to the American taxpayer of about $20 billion every year. This estimate did not include indirect costs that result from unemployment payments to Americans who lost their jobs to illegal aliens willing to work for lower wages. Nor did it include lost tax collections from those American workers who became unemployed. The study estimated those indirect costs from illegal immigration at an additional $4.3 billion annually.” The report is provided here.


During the years since that estimate, the illegal alien population is estimated to have roughly doubled, so the estimated fiscal costs also will have at least doubled. Furthermore, the passage of time is accompanied by inflation in the costs of services, e.g., school budgets continue to climb.

The cost for social services does not include the costs for additional border security. In November 2005 Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff presented the Bush Administration a plan to address the nation’s immigration crisis. Known as the Secure Border Initiative (SBI), the plan is billed as a comprehensive solution that will "secure America’s borders and reduce illegal migration" within five years. The cost of SBI was projected to be $2.5 billion.

Source: Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), “The Estimated Cost of Illegal Immigration“, Current estimate for social services is $45 billion annually. The report is provided below.


Counter Data: 1996 estimate of $24.44B per year + inflation and population increase (conservative) resulting in additional $2B per year = $374.44B as of Jan 1, 2006. $374.44B = $46B per year (for 2007). $3.83B per month + Jan to Jun 06 = @ $23B = $397.44B as of June 2006. $46B per year/12 = $3.83M per month = $127,666 per day = $5.319.00 per hour = $88.65 per minute = $1.47 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

Starting number is $397.44B as of 1 June 2006 and updates at $1.47 per second.

ILLEGALS ENROLLED IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS K-12:

Background: In Plyler v. Doe (1982), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that all children who reside in the United States regardless of their immigration status, have the right to a free education. Current government information is not sufficient to directly estimate the costs of educating illegal alien schoolchildren. Although a variety of data is available, no government source estimates the numbers of illegal alien schoolchildren for most or all states. States and local governments record data on school enrollment and costs but not on their immigration status. The Department of Homeland Security developed state-by-state estimates of the illegal alien population, but the estimates do not break out age groups and are subject to methodological limitations.

Source: In GAO Report 04-733, “Estimating Costs of Illegal Alien Schoolchildren“, June 2004. The GAO mailed a survey to 22 states to gather data on the population and costs for illegal immigrant schoolchildren. Of the 22 states surveyed, only 3 provided information. Seventeen states said they did not have such information, and 2 states (Florida and Georgia) did not respond. Of the 17 states that said they did not have information on the population or costs of schooling illegal alien children, 6 indicated that it would be illegal to ask about children’s immigration status. A link to the report is provided:

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04733.pdf

Source: According to an Urban Institute report, “Children Of Immigrants: Facts and Figures”, May 2006. “Four-fifths of children of immigrants were born in the United States and are, therefore, citizens, while the remaining are foreign born“. ImmigrationCounters.com asserts that this can be interpreted to say that the four-fifths born in the United States are not “technically” illegal immigrant children and this results in artificially lower totals. There is an estimated 5 million children living with undocumented parents. ImmigrationCounters.com sides with this data and asserts that the schoolchildren of undocumented parents are themselves illegal immigrant schoolchildren, even though they were born in the United States.

Since the intent and actions of their parents were from the outset to circumvent the immigration laws that resulted in their children enrolling in the schools, their children should be counted as having illegally and fraudulently entered the school systems. It has been a common practice in the industry to artificially lower the numbers used when children born in the United States are not counted as illegal, our totals are higher than most sources used for K-12. The reports are provided here.

http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/900955 ... grants.pdf

http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/410654 ... tation.pdf

Source: The Urban Institute, “Facts and Figures“, May 16, 2006. “Mostly left out of this debate are the more than 5 million children living in unauthorized families, who, like their parents, would be greatly affected by the outcome of this debate.”

Note: Some sources place the children of illegal immigrant population at 11M.

Source FAIR: Education Secretary Richard Riley in a April 2000 speech noted that “between 70 and 75 percent of the 3 million students with limited English skills speak Spanish, according to the education department.” This would place the Hispanic immigrant schoolchildren population at 2.1M. Limited English skills would indicate being new to the country.

The question to this point remains, of the 5M illegal immigrant children how many are K-12 age? We side with the figure of 3.5M. 3.5M is the figure detailed in this report by FAIR.

A conservative annual increase in enrollment is 10% per year.

Starting number is 3,500,000 Jan 2006 + 350,000 per year = 29,166 per month + Jan to June 06 = 175,000 = starting total of 3,675,000 as of 1 June 06. 3,675,000 = 972.2 per day = 40.5 per hour = .675 per minute = .011 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

COST OF ILLEGALS ENROLLED IN K-12:

Background: The simplest approach to estimating the costs of educating illegal alien schoolchildren is to multiply average current per pupil expenditures by the estimated number of illegal alien schoolchildren.

Source: In 2004, the Federation for American Immigration Reform determined: "The total K-12 school expenditure for illegal immigrants cost states nearly $12 billion annually, and when the children born here to illegal aliens are added, the costs more than double to $28.6 billion. In 2002, about $1.4 billion of the cost for their education was paid with federal funds, leaving the states to pay somewhere in the area of $27.2 billion annually. Frighteningly, this amount doesn't include "ancillary expenses" such as special programs for non-English speaking students, representing an "additional expense of $290 to $879 per pupil depending on the size of the class," or the supplemental feeding programs instituted because over 74 percent of illegal Mexican immigrants and their children are living in or near poverty.” The report is provided here.

Data history begins 1996 at $5.85B, 1 June 2006 starting number is $13,658,218,750 and update at $2,529 per minute or $42.00 per second.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS INCARCERATED: “Doing the jobs most Americans won’t do?“

Background: This number includes the totals for federal and state prisons’ and local jails . It only includes data from the five largest states and five largest local jails because there was no reliable data from all states and all local jails. However, those five states represent about 80 percent of the incarcerated criminal alien population. The Center For Immigration Studies reports that the criminal alien population represents about 30 percent of the total prison population.

Source: GAO Report 05-337R: “At the federal level the number of criminal aliens incarcerated increased from about 42,000 at the end of calendar year 2001 to about 49,000 at the end of calendar year 2004--a 15 percent increase. At the state level, the 50 states received reimbursements for incarcerating about 77,000 criminal aliens in fiscal year 2002. At the local level, in fiscal year 2003, SCAAP reimbursed about 700 local governments for incarcerating about 147,000 criminal aliens.” The report is provided here.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05337r.pdf

Source: The following GAO report is a focused case study of 55,322 criminal aliens incarcerated in federal prisons. This report gives a snap shot of the criminal history of these illegal immigrants.

GAO Report 05-646R. “Information on Certain Illegal Aliens Arrested in the United States“, May 9, 2005. “We identified a study population of 55,322 aliens that ICE in the Department of Homeland Security determined, based on information in its immigration databases, had entered the country illegally and were still illegally in the country at the time of their incarceration in federal prison during fiscal year 2003. They were arrested at least a total of 459,614 times, averaging about 8 arrests per illegal alien.

They were arrested for a total of about 700,000 criminal offenses, averaging about 13 offenses per illegal alien.” The report is provided here.

http://www.gao.gov/htext/d05646r.html

Source: GAO Report 05-377R, The majority of criminal aliens incarcerated were identified as citizens of Mexico. A source of federal prison data is provided here.

http://www.bop.gov/about/facts.jsp#2

Combining the federal, state and local populations:

Starting numbers is 309,375 and update at .0009 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

COST FOR INCARCERATIONS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS:

Background: This number includes the costs for federal, state and local prisons to incarcerate criminal aliens. It only includes data from the five largest states and five largest local jails because there was no reliable incarceration data from all states and all local jails. However, those five states represent about 80 percent of the criminal alien population. The national average to incarcerate one inmate is $69.00 per day.

The number does not yet include the cost for public safety expenditures, detention pending trial, trial proceedings, language interpretations, and public defenders.

Source: GAO Report 05-337R, March 2005. At the federal level the number of illegal immigrant inmates increased during 2001 to 2004 to about 49,000, an increase of about 15 percent. At the state level the figure was about 74,000 in fiscal year 2003. At the local level about 147,000 criminal aliens during fiscal year 2003. The report is provided here.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05337r.pdf

Starting numbers is $1,370,000,000 = $332,640 per day = $13,860 per hour = $231 per minute = $3.85 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT FUGATIVES:

Background: This figure includes foreign born criminal fugitives and immigration fugitives who failed to show for immigration court due to their temporary visa overstays and failed to comply with orders to depart the country.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, Press Release, April 28, 2006; “The exclusive mission of the initiative is to reduce the number of fugitive aliens in the U.S., which is currently estimated at more than 597,000. These fugitives, or absconders, are foreign nationals who have been ordered removed by a federal immigration judge, but failed to comply with those orders and depart from the United States.” The report is provided here.

http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=5581

Source: Department of Homeland Security: “President Discusses Border Security and Immigration Reform in Arizona“, November 28, 2005. Our border agents have used that funding to apprehend and send home more than 4.5 million people coming into our country illegally, including more than 350,000 with criminal records.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, Fact Sheet, Secure Border Initiative, Nov 2, 2005. “Currently, there are more than 450,000 absconders, and that number is growing at a rate of 40,000 per year.”

Source: Rocky Mountain News: “Fugitives“, June 11, 2006; “The first time the government estimated the number of fugitives was in 2002 it was 355,000. Each year an estimated 40,000 are added to the list that has reached 597,000. The first time the government estimated the number of fugitives was in 2002. It was 355,000. The current number of fugitives who are criminals was not available, 80,000 were criminals in 2004.”

Source: Rocky Mountain News: “Felons Slip Through Net While Agents Deport Immigrants With No Criminal Records,” June 11, 2006. “Nationally ICE admits it checks the legal status of only about 60 percent if immigrants who commit crimes serious enough to land them in prison. It recently set a goal of reaching 90 percent by 2009.”

597,000 + 40,000 per year = 3,333 per month. Jan to Jun = 20,000. 597,000 + 20,000 + 617,000.

3,333 per month, 111 per day, = 4.62 per hour = .077 per minute = .001 per second. Counter starting date is 1 June 06.

Good sources, thanks.

Moderators, please read this when you get a chance.

Hi Marine Inspector, JP48504, and Nadys,

While we've sort of been hanging our hats on the Immigration Counters website for real time stats, please take a look at the real-time counter being maintained by the American Resistance website.
http://www.theamericanresistance.com/re ... mbers.html
at the top left and top right of the above web page.

They show over 30 million present in the US and 3 million arriving annually!

Scroll down for how they arrive at those figures.

The 20 million on the Immigration Counters website is close to the same as the 2004 January figure that the American Resistance website cites.

Many of us cite the 22 million illegals (myself included), but that seems to be the figure from back when this ALIPAC website was newly opened.

The present 3 million arrivals since Jan 1, or the number of new arrivals per year is probably an exponential figure instead of flat, meaning that next year we'll see way more than 3 million new arrivals, and the following year over 4 million per year, then it all blows up in our faces during the year 2010. And, it's all over this website what is supposed to happen in the year 2010.

Recommendation:

That the moderators of ALIPAC review the statistical arguments posted on both the American Resistance website and the Immigration Counter website and bring back which set of figures we need to be referring to.

One more recommendation: Unless compelling determination otherwise, we should probably start hanging our hats on the 30 million + figure of the American Resistance website, because even their figures might be low. Using the higher, substantiated figure, comes closer to "worst casing" the invasion threat.

Moderator, if you need me to examine these figures some more, just let me know.

Thanks

The U.S. Census 2000 estimated 8.5 million
Senator John McCain estimated 4 million in 2002
Source: http://www.thedustininmansociety.org/ar ... feb10.html
U.S. Border Patrol fiscal 2005 apprehended 1.2 million, U.S.B.P. 'catch rate' is estimated to be 20%, meaning 4.8 million last year.
Assuming these 2 years to be 'average', 4+million times 6 years since Census equals 24 to 25 million added to the pre-existing 8.5 million equals 33.5 million here now.

It is interesting to note that in 1986, it was estimated that 1.2 million illegal aliens would qualify for THAT amnesty. The actual total was 3.5 million. Assuming a comparable miscalculation today, 35 million is a realistic number, and should be stressed in any debate.