Thread: Will Cannon survive primary challenge?

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Deseret Morning News, Friday, June 23, 2006

Will Cannon survive primary challenge?

By Bob Bernick Jr.
Deseret Morning News

Tuesday is primary election day in Utah, and the top race locally is also being watched nationally.

Five-term Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, has his most serious challenge since he defeated then-Democratic Rep. Bill Orton in 1996.

Utah's 3rd Congressional District is seen by some as a bellwether for vulnerable House GOP incumbents, not only because Congress is generally getting some of the lowest job performance poll numbers ever measured, but also because the district is seen as a test on illegal immigration.

Cannon has never been a big fund-raiser. And that alone has encouraged challenges in the past from within his own Republican Party.

A decade ago, Cannon spent $1.5 million of his own money to unseat Orton. That was cash spent in a full general election.

And while Cannon's GOP opponent Tuesday, John Jacob, is also a millionaire, Jacob says he won't be spending as much of his own cash on the primary race as Cannon spent on his whole campaign in 1996.

Still, Jacob has poured upward of $400,000 into his race so far, basically self-funding his campaign.

Jacob says he differs with Cannon on a number of issues. But, in fact, they actually agree on many.

Even though Cannon has become a born-again hard-liner on illegal immigration, the representative did introduce legislation in the House modeled after President Bush's approach to the controversial subject. Cannon says he has never supported "amnesty," but he has supported a guest worker program and a way for illegal immigrants to work toward legal status.

Bush is now repaying Cannon's loyalty: Both he and first lady Laura Bush have made endorsement radio ads for Cannon.

Utah is one of the few states where Bush's job approval rating is above 50 percent (even though he has dropped precipitously here over the last year, as he has nationally). And so Cannon and his supporters believe a Bush endorsement ad will help.

Jacob says he loves the Republican president, has voted for him in the past and would vote for him in the future if he could. "But he's wrong on immigration," says Jacob. And Cannon is wrong to support the president's illegal-immigration policies, Jacob adds.

Other Republicans have challenged Cannon from the right before — specifically coming after him on immigration. As in other races, there is a national anti-illegal immigration political action committee running ads against Cannon. This time it is Team America, headed by Bay Buchanan, the sister of well-known presidential candidate, commentator and talk radio host Pat Buchanan.

Former GOP presidential candidate Alan Keyes came to Utah this week to speak against illegal immigration, although Keyes did not specifically endorse Jacob or oppose Cannon.

Will Cannon lose Tuesday?

It's a tough call. Early polls show the race very close. But Jacob's campaign seems to have stalled over the last two weeks.

Historically, Cannon does not do well in job approval polls — a lot of 3rd District citizens don't seem to like him.

But will the dissatisfieds vote Tuesday?

Utahns have a poor primary record — usually only around 10 percent of voters cast ballots in primary elections.

As has been the case the last several primaries, the Utah Republican Party is holding a closed primary. You must be a registered Republican to vote in the 3rd District race. If you are "unaffiliated," not registered in any political party, you can sign up at the polls to be a Republican and vote. But if you are a registered Democrat or officially in any other party, you can't change to Republican at the polling place and vote in the 3rd District race.

Some people are showing up to vote early but leaving without voting after being told they have to register as a Republican, county clerks are reporting.

My guess — and it is only a guess — is that Cannon survives the Jacob challenge this year, although perhaps just barely.

The district is heavily Republican, and whoever wins Tuesday should prevail in November.

Maybe over the next few years Cannon will modify his illegal-immigration stand. Maybe he'll work harder to raise money before his 2008 re-election.


Or maybe we'll go through all of this again in two years.


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Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com


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Sadly, Cannon just may survive...why? Seems Fox (Bush's buddy) is airing JAcob's foot in mouth mome when he made his Satan comment to the media.....sigh. Let's hope it's just a minor stumble.

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