Thread: Will new immigration law help or hurt Arizona economy?

Will new immigration law help or hurt Arizona economy?

Law might save tax dollars, but new costs could emerge

Ronald J. Hansen -
Jul. 11, 2010 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Arizona's new immigration law will likely affect a sizable swath of the state's economy, but experts are uncertain whether it will bring overall economic gains or end up scarring the state with losses.

If the law survives court challenges and shrinks the illegal-immigrant population in Arizona, it would benefit some workers and unemployed people but also would hurt certain businesses that rely on illegal-immigrant labor or customers. The state would spend less of taxpayers' money on some services but also could spend more on others and would lose federal aid.


Arizona's costs, savings from SB 1070

Tens of millions of dollars in private and public spending could be affected, but many financial gains would be checked by financial losses, say economists, academics and other officials.

Low-skill workers who compete for the type of jobs often filled more cheaply by illegal immigrants could find greater demand and higher pay for their services. Taxpayers could see substantial savings on state K-12 education costs if many illegal immigrants leave with their children. Police and jail expenses could rise, however, because of immigrants arrested under the new law.

At the same time, some businesses could grow more slowly because of higher labor costs and lighter demand, and consumers could face higher prices for some goods and services.

Economic boycotts of Arizona in protest of Senate Bill 1070 seem relatively small-scale for now, but the long-term effects on attracting fewer conventions and businesses are unclear.

Even before it is due to take effect July 29, the law has triggered warnings that it will prove a setback for a state struggling to diversify its economy and declarations that it will generate savings by driving out illegal immigrants who use public services.

Economists say it is impossible to quantify precisely the fiscal and economic effects of the law because there are so many variables and unknowns.

The law makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally. It states that an officer engaged in a lawful stop, detention or arrest shall, when practicable, ask about a person's legal status when reasonable suspicion exists that the person is in the U.S. illegally.

Estimates vary widely on the economic impact of illegal immigrants.

In 2007, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported that based on 29 studies of the subject over 15 years, illegal immigrants impose a small, unspecified net cost on taxpayers. Last week, the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which favors more restrictive immigration policies, estimated that illegal immigration costs the federal government nearly $19 billion more than the revenue illegal immigrants create. FAIR put the net cost to states and local governments at $89 billion, including $2.7 billion for Arizona.

In response, the Immigration Policy Center, which opposes SB 1070, called the report "highly misleading." It questioned FAIR's calculations and said the report failed to account for other economic benefits. It pointed to a 2008 study by the Perryman Group, an economic analysis company, that estimated the U.S. economy would shrink by $245 billion without illegal immigrants and lose 2.8 million jobs.

Whatever the law's impact, it is likely to be heavily overshadowed by the national and state economies and Arizona's long-term population growth.

The Department of Homeland Security has estimated Arizona lost 100,000 illegal immigrants in 2008, when the economy began to crater and the state employer-sanctions law went into effect. Despite the exodus, Arizona still had an estimated 460,000 illegal immigrants last year, or about 7 percent of the state's population.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/ ... onomy.html

At the same time, some businesses could grow more slowly because of higher labor costs and lighter demand, and consumers could face higher prices for some goods and services.

If that is the case they can mechanize or move elsewhere, in fact among the places they could move are San Luis Rio Colorado and Nogales in Sonora. It is better to import than have the public cover the cost of education and health for people here illegally whose taxes don't match it.

i'm from arizona , and i personally could care less if it ends up hurting us , even myself personally ....

i'm willing to take the hit for the good of my country ...

Despite the exodus, Arizona still had an estimated 460,000 illegal immigrants last year, or about 7 percent of the state's population.

WOW! 460,000 jobs opend up to legal workers is great news! A 7% reduction in the unimployment rate? I don't see any bad news here at all, only great news.

One death at the hands of an illegal is a cost that is far too great.

Economic boycotts of Arizona in protest of Senate Bill 1070 seem relatively small-scale for now, but the long-term effects on attracting fewer conventions and businesses are unclear.

More open borders propoganda, other reports are that "buycotts" have more than offset the boycotts, but that is ignored.