Thread: Yakima WA: Initiative targeting illegals shy of signatures

Initiative targeting undocumented immigrants shy of signatures
By PAT MUIR
YAKIMA HERALD-REPUBLIC

Despite claims to the contrary by its backers, an initiative aimed at cutting off government benefits for undocumented immigrants seems unlikely to make it onto the November ballot.

Initiative 966 sponsor Bob Baker, a Mercer Island-based commercial pilot, said Tuesday that he has about 120,000 signatures on petitions supporting the measure. Assuming all the signatures are valid, that still leaves I-966 about 100,000 short of qualifying for the ballot, with a Friday deadline looming.

"They're dead in the water," said Matt Manweller, a Central Washington University political science professor who specializes in the study of initiatives and direct democracy.

The official requirement for signatures is 224,880, or 8 percent of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. But successful petition campaigns typically factor in an invalid signature rate of at least 15 percent.

Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed said that means backers of I-966 likely will need about 260,000 signatures just to get the 224,880 valid ones needed.

"It's really a good idea to have quite a cushion," Reed said.

If he wants the measure on the November ballot, the deadline for Baker to turn in the signatures is 5 p.m. Friday. Supporters, however, remain hopeful. Baker, who attended a Minuteman Civil Defense Corps immigration forum in Selah on Sunday, said he's gotten about 70,000 signatures from the Yakima Valley alone and expects a big push from signature gatherers over the next two days.

About 92,000 Yakima County residents were registered to vote for the 2006 general election, according to the Yakima County Auditor's Office.

"They said they were going to go out on the Fourth of July, and then they were going to overnight (ship) them," he said, adding that he has people going to the initiative's post office box daily to retrieve more and more signed petitions from around the state.


Carl Evans, a member of Grassroots of Yakima Valley who has helped collect signatures for the initiative, said he has had no trouble getting people to support I-966.

"I probably gathered 100 pages of petitions myself," he said. "And I'll tell you, 99 percent of the people I've asked -- and told them what it's for -- they signed it."

Backers of the measure hired paid signature gatherers, as most successful initiative campaigns do, but they've still struggled to gain the needed momentum. That's because the state requirement is too high, Baker said. It doesn't mean the measure would fail if it did go to a vote in November, he said.

"Absolutely not," Baker said. "The problem we have is getting the petitions to people and getting them informed."

It is indeed a "really steep, uphill climb" to go from paying the $5 fee for filing an initiative to getting it on the ballot, Reed said. It typically requires either a highly emotional issue or paid signature-gatherers, he said.

The only initiative of 35 filed this year that is likely to make the ballot is I-960, sponsored by initiative guru Tim Eyman. That measure would make it more difficult for the state Legislature to raise taxes.

So "unless they've thousands of people with piles of signatures that they're just waiting until the last minute to send in," I-966 backers won't see their measure on the ballot this fall, Manweller said. Even if it does make the ballot and gets passed by voters, the measure likely would face legal challenges and could be overturned like a similar initiative in California in 1998, he said.

* Pat Muir can be reached at 577-7693 or at pmuir@yakimaherald.com.

http://www.sun-herald.com/breakingnews.cfm?id=2614

Here is a situation ALIPAC could have helped if we had only known BEFORE it got to this point.

W

UPDATE

July 7, 2007

Support comes up short for immigration initiative
By PAT MUIR
YAKIMA HERALD-REPUBLIC


An initiative aimed at cutting off state benefits to undocumented immigrants will not be on this year's election ballot.

Bob Baker, sponsor of I-966, said Friday the measure died with about 150,000 petition signatures, well short of the 224,880 required to get it on the ballot.

"I feel the worst for the people over your way," said Baker, an airline pilot who lives on Mercer Island. "You're kind of at the epicenter of this issue."

Indeed, about 70,000 of the signatures on I-966 petitions came from Eastern Washington, Baker said. Earlier this week, he said he had about 70,000 from the Yakima area. He explained Friday he meant that to mean anything east of the Cascades.

The initiative would have required government workers to withhold public benefits from illegal immigrants. To make it onto the ballot for a November vote, supporters needed to gather enough signatures from registered voters to equal 8 percent of the turnout for the last gubernatorial election. To meet that standard, an initiative likely needed at least 260,000 signatures -- a 15 percent cushion -- to ensure it had 224,880 valid ones, Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed said this week.

Locally, I-966 was supported by Grassroots of Yakima Valley and the Yakima Minuteman, groups opposed to illegal immigration that often had the petitions at their events. Carl Evans, a Grassroots member who worked with Baker on getting the signatures, said earlier this week that nearly everyone he asked to sign the petition had done so. Evans was not available for comment Friday afternoon after it became clear the petition drive had failed.

The problem, Baker said, was not that people opposed the initiative, but that they either didn't know about it or put off signing it until it was too late.

"I believe with all my heart that it resonated with people," he said. "Our rate of successful signatures was about 95 percent."

Supporters raised about $5,000 to back the effort, including about $4,000 that went to paid signature-gatherers, he said.

"We didn't have the money to put ads in newspapers," Baker said.

It was the second time the measure had come up short. In 2006, Baker sponsored Initiative 946, which was essentially the same as this year's I-966. It also failed to make the ballot. A third effort is coming, he said, but it might have to wait until 2009.

"My first thought is, 'Let's take this year (200 and focus on the presidential race and the other races,'" he said.


* Pat Muir can be reached at 577-7693 or pmuir@yakimaherald.com.

http://www.yakima-herald.com/page/dis/13641991524942