ZETA Magazine Says True Drugwar Death Toll is 100K Plus
ZETA Magazine Says True Drugwar Death Toll is 100K Plus
Saturday, June 9th, 2012
Borderland Beat
Zeta Magazine claiming 71k More Deaths in the Drug War than has Been Disclosed
In the "golden triangle" area or the Sierras, the area dominated by "El Chapo", are responsible for 36% of all the death in the drug war
Enrique Mendoza Hernández
Balaceados(shoot outs), beheadings, hangings, psychological warfare, encajuelados, enteipados, coup de grace, narcomensajes, bodies burnt while alive, people turned into acid slime and numerous unearthed narcofosas, appear every day in the 32 federal states. They all bear the typical characteristics of drug trafficking and organized crime.
Since the beginning of the war Felipe Calderón began, 71 thousand people have lost their lives in conditions of violence, or a product of the insecurity caused by the drug cartels.
Using a methodology which consults the State Procurator and the federal information cards; police and municipal records, national information, record newspaper in the States and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the country, ZETA came to the conclusion that in five years and a half of the administration of President Felipe Calderón, 71 thousand people have died in Mexico, most executions related to criminal groups who compete for Mexican territory for the purposes are to transfer narcotics and domestic sales of drugs. The figure includes what the Calderon Government classified as "Executions", "Clashes" and "Homicidios-Agresiones." Here are the statistics year by year:
2007: 2,826 executions.
2008: 6,837 executions.
2009: 11,753 executions.
2010: 19,546 executions.
2011: 24,068 executions.
April 30, 2012: 6,774 executions.
In total, 71,804 deaths have been confirmed between 1/12/2007 to present. The figure corresponds to 80.5 per cent of the total 89,114 intentional killings reported in the same period.
We must remember that when Alejandro Poiré reported on 1/12/2011, that 15,273 murders took place that were linked to organized crime in 2010 and a total of 20,127 intentional killings reported by the Secretariat of Federal public safety. The federal official tacitly acknowledged the 75.88% corresponded to crimes related to drug trafficking.
These are the official number reporting the dead; unfortunately both State and Federal authorities prefer to hide the real figure before the Mexican and international community.
EXECUTIONS IN CALDERON'S PRESIDENTIAL
TERM from January 1, 2007-April 30, 2012
The dead that was brought on by the war of the President
Especially in recent days, President Calderón has pressured his successor to continue the battle – whoever takes over must continue his strategy against drug cartels and the insecurity they cause. Using the Mexican army was a strategy that was both tangible and immediate, and that he regrets he had not taken other measures as well.
Some of what he would not speak on was the casualties, nor the toll his war had taken. Of those executed as recorded by State, added up to more than 71 thousand. This should not be ignored.
Pressed by Zeta, the Government of Calderón, through the Attorney General of the Republic (PGR), has only recognized the death of 47 thousand executions as of January 2012. However, the "preliminary" figures were at the end of September 2011. Indeed, the statistics of 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 of the national information system are legendary for being under reported.
The truth is that so many dead have not been accounted for. They are not in agreement with our numbers. None of the following institutions offer the same conclusions; the national system of public security (SNSP) or the National Institute of statistics, geography or Informatics (INEGI); none offer the real amount of intentional killings in Mexico during the Calderon Administration.
Just to cite one example: the national information system recognizes 60,148 intentional homicides that occurred between 2007 and 2010, while in the same period, the INEGI reported 70,968 intentional killings. While the Government of President Felipe Calderón claims only 10,820 intentional homicides that occurred between 2007 and 2010.
"Once again this reveals to us the great disorder that is reflected in this great disruption in the data." This is also why the citizenship increasingly has had less confidence in the data that we get from the national information system; their numbers are always going down. The Ministry of public security mentioned 60 thousand, and INEGI mentions 70 thousand. "We are in a situation where we already cannot believe anything because there is no professionalism, we do not have men with ethics, and we definitely know that we are seeing more and more deaths, more and more violence, and do not see a shred of evidence that there is a serious effort in their work for transparency," explains sister Consuelo Morales Elizondo Director of the civil association citizens in support of human rights (Ciudadanos en Apoyo a los Derechos Humanos | Sitio web de CADHAC A.C.) in Monterrey, Nuevo León.
Another clear example of how the federal Government is struggling to report executions, is that while the amount reported in the Procurator and State Prosecutor's offices, the national system of information gives still other quantities; for example children.
For example, the Attorney General of the State of Chihuahua reported officially on November 28, 2011, 16,456 malicious homicides occurred between 1/1/2008 to 10/31/2011. Meanwhile, the national information system officially reported 11,588 in the same period, and in the same category of intentional killings. Then there is a difference of 4,868 intentional homicides that were not reported by the national information system.
Moreover, on March 11, 2012, the Attorney General of the State of Chihuahua reported officially 4,014 intentional homicides that occurred in 2011. Meanwhile, the national system of information recorded only 3,039; there is nothing else for the State of Chihuahua, the national information system does not report at least 975 corpses which we know of.
Despite the discourse both of the federal Government and state that they have been successful in the so-called Operation del Chihuahua, the truth is that it remains the bloodiest states in the six-year federal term.
The bloodiest: Cartel of Sinaloa and Los Zetas
Of the 71,804 executions that occurred during the six-year term of President Felipe Calderón, most have been linked to organized crime, they have occurred both in States governed by the institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and national action party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
Chihuahua which constitutes 21.6 percent of the murders, with 15,513, is governed by the PRI. Sinaloa with 7,221 executions is also held by the PRI. Guerrero, with 6,106 is governed by the PAN and PRD. Baja California, with 4,210 deaths is governed by the PAN; and the State of Mexico, with 3,894 is governed by the PRI.
Precisely in those entities, they argue the fight for territory of Sinaloa cartel against Los Zetas cartel, the first commanded by the criminal Joaquin Guzman Loera and Ismael Zambada; the second by Heriberto Lazcano and Miguel Treviño Morales. The two criminal organizations, who have not been dismantled by the Government of Felipe Calderón, as has happened with other criminal organizations such as the Beltran Leyva cartel, La Familial or Arellano Félix (CAF).
The Struggle undertaken by Calderón is what has led to the upsurge in violence led to the consolidations of criminal organizations which has come to be dominated by the criminal power of the Cartel of Sinaloa and Los Zetas.
The following list state murders and political affiliation:
Nuevo León, 3,894 governed by the PRI.
Durango, 3,213 governed by the PRI.
Jalisco, 3,156 governed by the PAN.
Federal District, 2,837 governed by the PRD.
Michoacán, 2,787 governed by the PRI, earlier by the PRD.
Tamaulipas, 2,733 governed by the PRI.
Sonora, 10,910 governed by the PRI.
Coahuila, 10,595 ruled by the PRI.
The bloodiest States, ZETA also showed the following conclusions:
Of the 71,804 executions, the previous 13 States were where the highest concentration with of 58,840 deaths, reflecting the 81.9 percent of the total dead so far in this conflict.
Also, of the 71,804 executions, 25,947 correspond to the "golden triangle" which includes the states of Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Durango. These three States are responsible for more than one third of executions, 36 percent to be more accurate. Many of the territories are known to be controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel.
Finally, the States of the North West Frontier, North and Northeast which include Chihuahua, Sonora, Baja California, Nuevo Leon, Durango, Tamaulipas and Coahuila, concentrate 40 thousand to 60 executions, in these eight States account for 55 percent of the homicides.
Contempt for the victims of Calderón War
The current six-year federal term has also been characterized by minimizing civilian casualties, what Calderon’s own administration called "collateral damage," which include children, students, entrepreneurs, journalists, social activists to name a few.
The Government of President Calderón first stated that, "90 percent of casualties are related to organized crime. Only 10 percent of those casualties are employed by institutions or were civilian targets," This was announced by the Ministry of the Interior in April 2010. And to this day, this has been the position of the Calderon Government.
In these conditions, ZETA was able to ascertain, there have been at least 71,804 deaths, 10 percent of which would be considered "civilian targets" with a total of at least 7,100 civilian deaths. There is no, nor hasn’t been any State or federal authority that reports on the actual number of civilian casualties in the six-year term that is dying.
The National Commission on human rights (CNDH) Raul Plascencia, reported on 26 January 2011, that in 2010 that just 111 people died amid the war of President Calderón; the CNDH reported that in 2011, 43 civilians were killed during clashes between criminal groups and security forces.
According to the CNDH, 5,397 people have been reported as missing, and there have been 8,898 unidentified bodies.
Also, the State Commission of human rights (ECHR) of Chihuahua documented 12 thousand children have been orphaned by violence in Ciudad Juarez, 120 thousand people have been displaced by the violence according to information from the Committee of public safety of the Chamber of Deputies, and more than 40 thousand Mexicans have asked for political asylum, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
109,000 corpses "Without data" and "Other"
As the Government of President Felipe Calderón ends its six-year federal term ends, the government not only minimized and slowed the process of quantitative records of executions that occurred but also in the identification of corpses.
Of the 71,804 executions recorded by ZETA for five years and a half, Zeta used the classification by the national system of information as intentional homicides "By gun fire", "With weapon", "Without data" and "Others", 30,957 correspond to the headings "Without data" and "Other". I.e. no one knows the identity of 43 percent of the dead.
Killings identified "Without data" and "Others", are classified by the national information system, as not only those that belong to the category of malicious acts, but the Calderón Government also adds those who die of tortuous killings.
It is that in the current federal government, 78,185 corpses were thrown into the category of tortuous killings "Without data" and "Other".
In a nutshell, 109,142 negligence and intentional homicides have been classified by the federal Government as "Without data" and "Other".
Given the seriousness of the Government to classify 109,142 corpses as "Without data" and "Other", the sister Consuelo Morales explains to ZETA:
"It is a very painful situation. We are experiencing a severe setback to our constitutionally, which was approved last year, the constitutional reform on human rights in June 2011; the truth is that in practice this reform hasn’t had slightest effect. When we are talking about 109 thousand killings this leaves us perplexed, but on the other hand, also leaves us in a situation in which there are probably many more, because we have many people missing that we do not know where they are, we don't know if they have already been killed or not, if it was organized crime or with the complicity of the authorities themselves.
"The decision Mr. Calderón made to changed his strategy in its campaign, saying that he would be 'the President of employment' but also a President who wanted us to give security, because we had to reverse the trend of quickly falling situations of greater insecurity. There is a real setback in carrying this out, while at the same time respecting the human rights of citizenship."
Also, Edgardo Buscaglia, a Professor and researcher at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico (ITAM) and also of Columbia University, also concurred with ZETA on including the 109,142 murders with malicious intent or those of negligence that the Calderon Government has classified as "Without data" or "Other":
"It is a symptom of weakness of State;" It is a sign that the State has no ability to investigate, indict, or prosecute murders. It is the kind of indicators that I see in Afghanistan, or see in Northern Pakistan; it is also seen sometimes in Sudan. It is a symbol of weak State. Killings which are labeled as 'No data' also point to a weak state, this is also seen in States the Sub-Saharan, in the poorer countries of Asia; "it's really a shame."
Cockroach effect
Certainly in States like Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Baja California have dropped in the criminal index related to intentional homicides linked to organized crime in 2011 compared with 2010.
Specifically, in Chihuahua we have seen a decease, with 4,375 executions recorded in 2010, the following year 4,014. But in Sinaloa the death rate had rose slightly from 1,204 in 2010, to 1,913 the next year; and Baja California, 992 executions were recorded by Zeta in 2010, and 673 in 2011.
But while in some States decreased executions, in others they increased dramatically, including Nuevo León, Guerrero, State of Mexico, Jalisco, Coahuila, Tamaulipas and Veracruz.
The "cockroach effect" was recorded in Nuevo León, a State where more increased from 770 executions in 2010, to 2,003 in 2011. There was an increase of 1,233 executions, which corresponds to 160 percent increase.
In Guerrero, 1,376 executions occurred during 2010, the following year 2,158; a 56 percent increase over 2011.
In the State of Mexico, 954 executions recorded in 2010, 1,512 occurred in 2011; the increase was 58 percent rise in homicides.
In Jalisco, there were 793 executions in 2010, in 2011 were 1222, which represents 54 percent increase.
In Coahuila, of 398 recorded murders in 2010, the following year 735 occurred, which is an increase of 84 percent.
And finally, in Tamaulipas, 780 executions were recorded in 2010, followed by 1108 in 2011. There was an increase of 42 percent. In Veracruz, there were 345 executions documented in 2010, the next year there were 654; the increase was 89 per cent.
The violence will go down, but that does not mean that Mexico is not invaded by criminal groups:
According to the agency drug of the United States (DEA), in States like Nuevo León, where executions soared from 56 murders in 2009, to 770 in 2010; to 2003 in 2011. There have been 650 deaths in the first four months of 2012 alone, due to the struggle between the Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas and Sinaloa Cartel, will leave one criminal organization alive.
"Los Zetas are either attacking, defending what they consider their area of operations known as the Plaza; this year the level of confrontation between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Zetas has increased, tot he point of no return: only one group shall be left alive," said a DEA agent.
For his part, Edgardo Buscaglia, who is also a consultant for the Institute of training for the maintenance of peace in the Organization of United Nations (UN), explains to ZETA the eventual phenomenon of decrease killings, as already happened in Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Baja California:
"The killings could have downward shift to levels consistent with historically norms and as was the case in Russia where the organized homicides fell through out much the Yeltsin era, and yet the country has more Mafioso with President Putin than before. Do not fall for the idea that because there are less organized killings, that the policy is a success. We all obviously want to see fewer killings, but organized murder is not a good indicator of failure or success of a policy in general.
"When this country has criminal groups either in alliance with one another or consolidating, as Sinaloa Cartel, which consolidated with several additional groups, we're going to find that the violence will go down, but that does not mean that Mexico has not been invaded by more criminal groups, for example, economic crimes such as, extortion, kidnapping, piracy, smuggling or fraud, will continue to increase, despite the fact that the killings go down".
The investigator concludes: "What we are unfortunately seeing is that any measure that at the moment we are being implemented, or that have been suggested in the platforms of the candidates, does not lend any kind of light at the end of the tunnel."
From Chivis:
This is an important article, focusing on the woeful misreporting of drugwar death numbers. Though now widely reported as being greatly under reported, Zeta presents the numbers with supporting fact. In my opinion, the numbers remain far from accuracy. If one concentrates on "migrants" alone, the fact is that another 40k plus are "missing", and remains there categorically, unless in the rare event they are found dead or alive. Additionally, there are the many undiscovered narco-fosas that pepper the vast no mans land of states such as Coahuila, Durango, Zacatecas and Chihuahua.
I respect Zeta, however I do not always agree with all they publish. Nothing more so than their assessment of the killings being brought on by "Calderon's" drugwar. One needs to only peruse the states with the most killings and you will find only one is governed by the Calderon PAN party. The majority is governed by the PRI party. It is the state and municipalities that are the biggest factor of corruption and collusion that results in violence. Organized Criminal Groups are a different animal than those of a decade ago, or even six years ago. Big money brings big contention for a piece of the pie. An influx of smaller gangs, allied groups and enforcer gangs fighting for territory has created in of itself unimaginable violence, in unimaginable "plazas" such as Monterrey. This would have happened with or without "Calderon's" war, in all probability greater violence.
Calderon has not been a perfect president, but I respect what he has done, and what he has attempted to do, far greater than any other Mexican president. He freely admits his error in focusing on defensive military presence, without other elements to support these deployments, e.g. offensive deployments, federal take over of corrupt municipalities and restructure of same. I was very critical of his sticking to failed concepts, rather than quickly moving on to plan B.
I fear PRI regaining power will return to the days of making deals with the devil, which is what brought us where we are today, this time with far greater consequences. Paz, Chivis
Note: My apologies for the charts being less than clear. I tried every which way, even a slide show, you can the charts HERE at the Zeta website
To read about other types of killings, see my article "Bodies of Innocents Used as Props in Mexico's Drug War" on the INSIGHT CRIME website. Source: ZETA Magazine
borderlandbeat source: http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2012/0...war-death.html
