Thread: Eye on the Senate: Latest Round-up of Polls

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Eye on the Senate: Latest Round-up of Polls
July 24, 2008 1:41 PM

We're updating our round-up with two hot races today: Colorado and Minnesota.

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is tied with former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer at 44 percent each with 11 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Udall had a 10 point lead in Quinnipiac's previous survey. Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 21 had Udall ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. That was within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Rasmussen had Udall ahead by 9 a month ago, and its new numbers suggest a closer race than the results from a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-10 which had Udall ahead 47 percent to 38 percent with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error in that poll was 3 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted June 17-24 which had him ahead 48 percent to 38 percent. Udall and Schaffer are vying to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Minnesota: The most recent two polls paint very different pictures. Republican first-termer Norm Coleman has pulled away from Democrat Al Franken with a 53 percent to 38 percent lead and 8 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/ Wall Street Journal poll conducted July 14-22. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Quinnipiac's Peter Brown says, "Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent." Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Coleman leading 44 percent to 43 percent with eight percent preferring another candidate, 5 percent undecided and a margin of error is 4.5 percent. Franken leads 49 percent to 46 percent if "leaners" are counted. Coleman is seen favorably by 57 percent of voters and Franken by 60 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 11-13 had Coleman ahead by 52 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Check out our story, "Franken Stumbling in Minnesota Senate Race." CQ Politics changed the rating on this the race from "No Clear Favorite to "Leans Republican."

New Hampshire: A new poll is out today that is substantially different than the one released yesterday by American Research Group which showed a big lead for Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, over Republican incumbent John Sununu. The University of New Hampshire's Granite State poll, conducted July 11-20, has Shaheen's lead shrinking from 17 points in February and 8 points in April to a 46 percent to 42 percent margin with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The poll says 72 percent of likely voters are still mulling who their definite final choice might be. Shaheen's favorability ratings have been falling and Sununu's rising, with her favorability-to-unfavorability ratio now at 53 percent to 31 percent and Sununu's at 52 percent to 33 percent. The American Research Group survey conducted July 17-19 had Shaheen ahead 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. According to this poll, Shaheen has increased her overall lead since ARG's June poll and also has made further inroads into Sununu's Republican base. Shaheen has 94 percent support among Democrats and attracts 26 percent of Republicans while Sununu has only 70 percent support among fellow Republicans and no traction with Democrats. Asked about the difference between the polls, ARG's Dick Bennett said: "We found that Shaheen captures over 90% of the Obama vote while Sununu captures just over two-thirds of the McCain vote. Undeclared (independent) women over 50 prefer McCain over Obama, but they did not stick with Sununu...Our interviewers report that voters angry at Congress and Sununu, without much of any visible campaign, is being punished at the moment." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss holds big leads over either of the two Democrats still in the race to challenge him, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. DeKalb County chief executive officer Vernon Jones and Atlanta attorney, former legislator Jim Martin were the two top finishers in a five-man Democratic field this month and will compete in a runoff Aug. 5. Chambliss leads Jones 59 percent to 29 percent and Martin by 51 percent to 40 percent. Chambliss is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters compared to 30 percent for Jones and 37 percent for Martin. CQ Politics rates this race Republican Favored.

Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has pulled ahead of Stevens with a 50 percent to 41 percent lead in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17. Four percent chose "other," 4 percent were undecided and the margin of error was 4.5 percent. Stevens had a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent lead over, the mayor of Anchorage, in Rasmussen's June 16 poll. Voters who view Begich favorably increased from 55 percent to 63 percentwhile Stevens' favorable-to-unfavorable ratio in June of 51 percent to 44 percent is now 50 percent to 48 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Leans Republican."

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, which is the same as the pair polled last month, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 17. Six percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 65 percent of voters compared to 32 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 57 percent compared to 37 percent. Collins has the support of 82 percent of her fellow Republicans and draws 19 percent of Democrats. Unaffiliated voters back her 58 percent to 32 percent. Allen is backed by 74 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, leading him 57 percent to 32 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16 had Warner ahead 57 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. What seems somewhat odd in this survey is that Rasmussen says Warner's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 28 percent while Gilmore's is 47 percent to 44 percent. While Warner has 95 percent Democratic support and attracts 17 percent of Republicans, Gilmore's backing among Republicans is only 74 percent and he draws only 2 percent of Democrats. Warner's edge among unaffiliated voters is 52 percent to 27 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 16 and 18 had Warner ahead 59 percent to 28 percent with a margin of error of 3.3 percent. This is the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner. CQ Politics rates the race "Democrat Favored."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republic Rep. Dick Zimmer 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13. Perhaps one factor in the large number of undecideds is that voters considered the 84-year old Lautenberg too old to effectively represent the state by a 57 percent to 39 percent margin. Lautenberg's job approval rating was 48 percent favorable to 40 percent unfavorable with 12 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had Lautenberg ahead 49 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 41 percent while the lesser-known Zimmer's is 45 percent to 35 percent with 20 percent undecided. In its June 9 poll, Rasmussen had Lautenberg only 1 point ahead of Zimmer. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 17-22 said 44 percent of voters say they never heard of Zimmer and 29 percent of those who heard of him had no opinion about him. Earlier polls had Lautenberg ahead but not quite by as much. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Oregon: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, has pulled out in front of two-term Republican Smith by 43 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That makes the race pretty a statistical tie after Smith led by 47 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 11. If "leaners" are counted in, the race is a numerical tie at 46 percent each. Smith's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 45 percent while Merkley's is 51 percent to 34 percent with 15 percent "not sure." For more background on the race, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Kansas: Two-term Republican Roberts is pulling away from his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery after two months of polls in which Slattery appeared competitive and one month in which Roberts' support dropped below 50 percent. A new Rasmussen reports poll conducted July 14 has Roberts ahead 57 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A June 11 survey by Rasmussen Reports had Roberts ahead 48 percent to 39 percent. Roberts is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters while Slattery's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 40 percent to 39 percent. But perhaps the more challenging numbers for Slattery is that only 8 percent view him very favorably and 21 percent don't know him well enough to say. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

North Carolina: Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole leads Democratic challenger Kay Hagan 54 percent to 42 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted July 12-14. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. While the two run evenly among women, Dole has a 25 point lead among men. She has a 34 point advantage among whites who make up 74 percent of the sample while Hagan has a 62 point lead among blacks who make up 19 percent. One of Hagan's problems is that her support among Democrats is only 72 percent while Dole has 90 percent backing from her own party and 25 percent support among Democrats. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 26-29 had Dole ahead 51 percent to 37 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. This poll had pretty much the same finding as SurveyUSA about Hagan's weakness with Democrats. A mid-June poll by the Civitas Institute had Dole ahead 48 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Civitas says Dole has a 63 percent to 20 percent lead among voters concerned about illegal immigration. Dole has also wiped out leads Hagan had among unaffiliated voters and women. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as "Republican Favored."

South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, holds a modest but steady 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than half of voters. This seat has been considered one of the few Democratic ones to be vulnerable. A Southern Media & Opinion Research survey conducted June 26-28. Undecideds are 13.9 percent and the margin of error is 4 percent. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Kennedy is also viewed favorably by 61 percent, unfavorably by 10.5 percent while 28.5 percent did not know or were unfamiliar with him. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

South Carolina: First term Republican Lindsey Graham appears to have an easy ride to re-election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. Graham leads Democrat Bob Conley, a commercial pilot, by 54 percent to 32 percent. Former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride had mounted a petition drive to get on the ballot as a more conservative alternative to Graham, but he dropped that effort July 15. However, Graham led him, too, by 52 percent to 21 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."

Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 55 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen reports poll conducted July 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Harkin is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters compared to 41 percent for the lesser known Reed about whom 31 percent were "not sure." These numbers are little changed from last month. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 61 percent to 27 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Durbin is viewed favorably by 63 percent of voters while Sauerberg's problem is that 36 percent described themselves as "not sure," meaning they don't know much about him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Alabama:Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures by 58 percent to 34 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 26. He had led by 33 points in May. Sessions is viewed favorably by 68 percent of voters compared to 27 percent who see him in a negative light, while Figures has a 37 percent positive rating compared to 42 percent who see her unfavorably. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, has a lead over Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega in one recent poll and finds himself with an uncomfortably small edge in another. Cornyn is head of Noriega 48 percent to 35 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 9 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Report survey conducted June 25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In an early June poll, Cornyn had been at 52 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable view of Cornyn compared to 28 percent who do not, while Noriega is viewed favorably by 38 percent and negatively by 38 percent. But in a Texas Lyceum poll conducted June 12-20, Cornyn and Noriega were within the 3.1 percent margin of error, with Cornyn ahead 38 percent to 36 percent with a large undecided figure of 24 percent. CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 48 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a June 25 Rasmussen Reports survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 43 percent of voters compared to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a turnaround from Rasmussen's last poll. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted June 13-16, McConnell had a smaller 50 percent to 46 percent lead - right on the 4 point margin of error - with 4 percent undecided. McConnell benefited from much stronger Republican support than Lunsford has among Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Mississippi: Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, is way out in front, but Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, faces a tough race to keep his seat, according to Rasmussen Reports surveys conducted June 24. Cochran leads former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent. Fleming lost to Lott in 2006 by 64 percent to 35 percent. However, Wicker is in a dead heat with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Wicker leads 48 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent professing other and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent . Last month, Musgrove had the 1 point edge. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 60 percent to 33 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 23. Johanns is regarded favorably by 73 percent of voters compared to 50 percent for Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 54 percent to 32 percent with 14 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 13 had Levin ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.".

New Mexico: If the sentiment of New Mexico voters today holds up until November, the Democratic party may pick up another Senate seat. In a SurveyUSA poll) of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat Rep. Steven Pearce (60-36 percent) for the seat held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll was conducted May 12-14 before Pearce defetaed Rep. Heather Wilson in a primary (Udall had also led Wilson by a wide margin). CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democratic."

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker ... und-1.html

On the House side: www.thenewamerican.com/node/8648

Although this piece doesn't contain polling data, it profiles some races, where voters will have a very clear choice.

Originally Posted by populist

Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 61 percent to 27 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. Durbin is viewed favorably by 63 percent of voters while Sauerberg's problem is that 36 percent described themselves as "not sure," meaning they don't know much about him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

so discouraging! there is no helping illinois.

It looks like Senator Sununu (New Hampshire) is in trouble, so we should help him. He has recent and career grades of A- from ABI.

While I'm pleased that Senator Dole (North Carolina) has a lead now, the Dems are targeting her seat and her opponent is well funded. So please also support her if you can.