Thread: Americans Now Favor GOP on Immigration — WSJ/NBC Poll

Sept. 9, 2014
By
Laura Meckler
The Wall Street Journal



WASHINGTON—Americans are now more likely to trust Republicans to handle immigration, and less likely to support legislation backed by most Democrats giving illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

These shifts in public opinion come in the wake of a spring and summer surge in Central American children illegally crossing the southwest border.

Republicans seized on the influx to argue that U.S. borders are too porous, and they blamed what they consider to be Democratic leniency toward illegal immigration for persuading children to make the journey.

The result: voters’ trust in Democrats has fallen, as has their willingness to consider legalization for undocumented.

The new survey finds that 35% of people saying the Republican Party would do a better job on immigration, vs. 27% for Democrats. That represents a big swing from December, when 31% favored Democrats and 26%, Republicans.

The poll also finds support for immigration legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship way down since spring. In April, 64% favored such a proposal, with 35% opposed. This month, support dropped to 53% and opposition rose to 45%–a swing of more than 20 percentage points.

Immigration supporters may take some solace that when given more details about the proposal, support remains high. But the Democratic and Republican pollsters who run the poll agreed that most voters make political judgments off just a bit of information.

The survey underscores President Barack Obama’s decision to put off his plans to unilaterally ease deportations of illegal immigrants. He had promised to act this month, but the White House grew concerned that voters are so angered by the border crisis that any further easing of immigration policy would be damaging to Democratic candidates in key Senate races. He’s now promising to act by the end of the year.

“The Central American kids totally reopened the dialogue about whether our borders were secure,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican who co-directs the Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll.

Most experts believe that the surge stemmed at least in part from a perception that kids who make it to the U.S. will be allowed to stay. That reality has less to do with porous borders and more to do with a bipartisan 2008 law that lets unaccompanied minors from Central America stay in the U.S. while their deportation cases are processed slowly through backlogged immigration courts.

Further, the huge surge in migration dropped dramatically in June and August. But perceptions, fueled by GOP political attacks, had already taken hold.

The crisis may have inflicted lasting damage on the years-long drive to overhaul the immigration system, which Democrats and some Republicans say must include legalization for many of the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. now.

Since spring, support for the pathway to citizenship fell across demographic groups, dropping sharply among African-Americans (from 75% support to 59%) and among those with less education—for instance, those with some college went from 65% support to 42%.

“I’m just not sure how much bounce back there will be with some of these groups,” he said Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who also works on the poll.

There was some good news for immigration advocates. In a separate question, voters were given details about a legalization program—including that participants would have to pay a fine, any back taxes and pass a security background check—and asked if they support the plan.

In this case, support remained high—with 73% supporting the plan and 26% opposed. That’s just a little worse than when the same question was asked in April, when 76% supported it and 23% opposed.

But that sort of nuance is typically lost in the midst of political campaigns, said Mr. McInturff.

He said the immigration debate “has devolved down to one word, ‘amnesty,’ ” adding that the while the survey “can be useful in understanding attitudes, it may not replicate what will happen in the rough-and-tumble world of American campaigns.”

The new survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Sept. 3-7. It has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the full sample.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/0...n-wsjnbc-poll/

by Caroline May 10 Sep 2014, 9:50 AM PDT
breitbart



Registered voters are more likely to support Republican immigration plans over Democratic ones, representing a shift in support from last year, according to a new poll.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll released Tuesday found that 35 percent of registered voters think Republicans would do better with immigration, while 27 percent said Democrats would do a better job.

Compare this week's numbers to December’s, when 31 percent said they favored Democrats on the issue and 26 percent said Republicans would do better.

The same poll also found a decline in the percentage of voters who favored a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. While April saw 64 percent in favor with 35 percent opposed, September’s poll found a massive drop in favorable opinion with 53 percent saying they support a pathway to citizenship and and 45 percent opposed.

The pollsters who conducted the survey pointed to the massive influx of unaccompanied minors illegally entering the United States in recent months as a large factor in the shift in opinion.

“The Central American kids totally reopened the dialogue about whether our borders were secure,” Bill McInturff, a Republican co-director of poll, told the Journal.

The Journal pointed out all demographics have shown a marked decline in support for a pathway to citizenship compared to before the surge in unaccompanied illegal immigrant minors became major news — including support among African Americans, which declined from 75 percent in the spring to 59 percent now, and those with “some college” declined form 65 percent supporting such a pathway to 42 percent support.

“I’m just not sure how much bounce back there will be with some of these groups,” Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who helped conduct the poll, told the Journal.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 3-7 among 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...On-Immigration

by Tony Lee 11 Sep 2014, 8:11 AM PDT
breitbart

There has been a 20-point swing against providing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants since last year.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 64% favored a pathway to citizenship last spring while 35% opposed. In September, 53% support and 45% oppose, which is "a swing of more than 20 percentage points."

The poll also found that a plurality of Americans believe Republicans would do a better job handling immigration issues.

After Breitbart Texas broke the story of illegal immigrants that were being warehoused in detention centers in Texas, the mainstream media were forced to cover the issue, and public opinion soon shifted. President Barack Obama conceded over the weekend that he was delaying his executive amnesty because the politics changed during the summer. And Bill McInturff, the Republican co-director of the poll, acknowledged that "the Central American kids totally reopened the dialogue about whether our borders were secure."

Though 63% of Americans in another national poll oppose illegal immigrants receiving work permits, the poll did not simply ask, "do you favor giving citizenship to illegal immigrants?" Instead, the poll, which was conducted by two outlets that have been relentless in pushing a pathway to citizenship, asked respondents a more roundabout question: "As you may know, there is a proposal to create a pathway to citizenship that would allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens?"

The poll was conducted Sept. 3-7 and has a margin of error of /- 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...to-Citizenship