2012 election map precarious for Senate Democrats


Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D.

By Charles Babington
January 20, 2011 10:24 am

WASHINGTON (AP) – Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., is retiring and his party has a big problem in 2012 — and beyond.

Farm Belt and Southern voters who prefer a Republican president but have often backed moderate Democrats for Congress seem increasingly inclined to vote GOP in all federal races.

Republicans rejoiced at Conrad’s announcement Tuesday. They’re convinced that they can win the open seat in 2012 and hold it for years to come. They see it as a replay of last fall’s election in the state, when Republican John Hoeven easily won the seat held by 18 years by Democrat Byron Dorgan.

They also point to neighboring South Dakota. After Republican John Thune narrowly defeated Democratic Sen. Tom Daschle in 2004, Democrats didn’t even bother last year to oppose Thune’s re-election. Republicans feel they can hold the seat for many years, and they are eyeing the state’s other seat: Democrat Tim Johnson is up for re-election in 2014.

Democrats say the GOP celebration is premature. They hope to find a strong candidate to run for Conrad’s seat. They also say 2012 may be a much tougher year for Republicans than was 2010, especially if President Barack Obama regains his former popularity and Republicans nominate a flawed challenger.

Republicans see several Southern and border states as harbingers of where they hope the Dakotas are heading, with long-term implications for U.S. In the mid-1990s, there were Democratic senators from Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas and Oklahoma. Both Georgia senators were Democrats 10 years ago. Now, all those states’ senators are Republicans, and they rarely break a sweat when seeking re-election.

The same is true in Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and Kansas.

Like the Dakotas, those states are so solidly Republican at the presidential level that Democratic nominees mostly ignore them. Some Republicans believe that every time a veteran Democrat such as Conrad, Dorgan or Daschle leaves office, there’s a good chance the GOP can make a long-term claim to the seat, as they have in much of the South and Mountain West.

“The Dakotas are long gone in terms of states that Democrats can expect to win,â€