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  1. #1
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    Buy Feed Corn: They’re about to stop making it…’

    I do not have a link to this as it was sent to me in an email, however, it makes perfect sense! With the shift to growing corn for ethanol, which as I understand it actually REDUCES milage, is just another way to make more money for the elites and starve out the American people! Think what you will, but tell me this is Not a possibility!

    ‘Buy Feed Corn: They’re about to stop making it…’

    © F. William Engdahl * July 21 2007

    That bowl of Kellogg’s Cornflakes on the breakfast table, or the portion of pasta or corn tortillas, cheese or meat on the table is going to rise in price over the coming months as sure as the sun rises in the East. Welcome ladies and gentlemen to the new world food price shock, conveniently timed to accompany our current world oil price shock.

    Curiously it’s ominously similar in many respects to the early 1970’s when prices for oil and food both exploded by several hundred percent in a matter of months. That mid-1970’s price explosion led President Nixon to ask his old pal, Arthur Burns, then Chairman of the Fed, to find a way to alter the CPI inflation data to take attention away from the rising prices. The result then was the now-commonplace publication of the absurd “core inflationâ€
    Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God

  2. #2
    Senior Member buffalododger's Avatar
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    Right now the US grain reserves are the lowest they have been in 40 years and possibly 100 years according to the USDA.

    Then again , since the French introduced genetically altered corn into the US there may be a possibility that after all of the cross pollination that is taking place in our major grain producing regions , corn of all kinds will become toxic for human consumption anyway.

    It kills bees and many other types of life , why not us to? The French do not eat corn. They consider it to be animal feed and the idea of eating it turns their noses up.

    Problems in the field ? More then you as a non-farming citizen could even start to imagine. The cost of producing bio fuel still exceeds the energy costs of mass producing it.

    The whole deal falls into the black hole of political and industrial corruption at the highest levels as has become the standard in this country.

  3. #3
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    Yep, it is political BS and it is designed to profit the politicians and the big business that is in bed with them. We are left up to defend ourselves. I think we need to learn to be more self sufficient FAST!
    Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God

  4. #4
    Senior Member buffalododger's Avatar
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    Kinda hard for folks to be self sufficient in the food department when they are living in the heart of cities with populations exceeding a million. They are at the unforgiving end of the humanly manipulated food chain.

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    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  6. #6
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    WRONG:
    this is one place I feel i can add a few Good points to help out your understanding as i am about to finish in the master's degree in Agriculture by the spring of next year and as I have been farming my whole life I have learned a few more things about this and other farming economic issue as well as farming and fiancé issue then the common man would need to know.
    I got to say you write one best seller that no body reads and all the sudden you have your stuff posted every where the man is a fool...

    the link to the article is http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0725.html and storey is by by F. William Engdahl And it is a storey
    Frederick William Engdahl, has written on issues of energy, politics and economics for more than 30 years, beginning with the first oil shock in the early 1970s. He has written articles many time for Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Foresight magazine, Grant's Investor.com European Banker and Business Banker International. He has also spoken at numerous international conferences on geopolitical, economic and energy subjects, and is active as a consulting economist. SOUNDS GOOD well its not he has to be on the corn silk to think any one would believe the changes he looks foward to
    I cant even get half way through any of the mans stuff before i have to walk away and read something else just to feel safe again in my own home .


    As sure a the sun sets in the west corn is going to grow and get cheaper so will milk I have a few articles I will post on Monday to show you excitedly how I know these things

    Relax ohflyingone its all not as the man says

  7. #7
    Senior Member BetsyRoss's Avatar
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    I'm glad to hear from a farmer! It bothers me that we have paved over so much fine farmland. My mother is in a nursing home out in a small town in farm/ranch country and the people there are so much nicer than in big city institutions.
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  8. #8
    Senior Member buffalododger's Avatar
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    Well say great one , that's just good to hear.

    I was afraid my livestock would starve to death for lack of corn.

    My chickens, ducks , geese , sheep, cattle and horses would blame me if the food dish ran dry. Then again , standing out in my back yard looking out over the alfalfa , pastures and corn fields I reflect that My critters are most likely gonna be OK regardless of prices , supply and demand.


  9. #9
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    The following reports are all from the USDA and its resources



    FACTS for 2007- 08 :



    June 1 stocks of U.S. corn were estimated at 3.534 billion bushels, 828 million less than the inventory of a year earlier, but about 75 million more than expected by the market. The stocks figure implies a slow down in domestic corn feeding during the third quarter of the marketing year, even though livestock numbers remained large. Year ending stocks will not be as tight as projected before the June stocks estimate was released.

    The USDA’s June Acreage report indicated that U.S. producers planted 92.888 million acres of corn in 2007, 2.434 million more than intentions reported in March and 14.561 million more than planted in 2006. The USDA projects acreage harvested for grain at 85.418 million acres and calculates the trend yield at 150.3 bushels, pointing to a 2007 harvest of 12.838 billion bushels, 2.3 billion larger than the 2006 crop and 1.031 billion larger than the previous record crop of 2004. Our expectation is very near that, at 12.81 billion. A crop at that level would result in some build-up in stocks during the 2007-08 marketing year. However, with the rapid expansion in use of corn for ethanol production, U.S. corn acreage will likely have to increase again in 2008 to maintain supplies at a level to accommodate all users at reasonable prices.

    Corn prices, and particularly the new crop basis, will remain weak into harvest if the final two months of the growing season point to an average yield above 150 bushels per acre. Basis and cash prices are expected to rebound after harvest in order to ensure large corn acreage in 2008. Based on conditions in mid-July, a 2007-08 marketing year average farm price of $3.30 is expected. At the close of trade on July 17, the futures market reflected a 2007-08 average farm price near $3.35.

    Stocks Larger Than Expected

    The USDA’s June Grain Stocks report showed June 1, 2007 corn inventories of 3.534 billion bushels, 828 million less than inventories of a year earlier and the smallest inventory for that date in three years (Table 1). The stocks estimate implies that 2.538 billion bushels of U.S. corn were used during the third quarter of the 2006-07 marketing year. That is 91 million less than the record consumption for the quarter established last year. Census Bureau estimates show that U.S. corn exports totaled 479 million bushels during the quarter, 86 million less than exported in the same quarter last year. Based on USDA export estimates for June and the first half of July, cumulative export shipments reached 1.79 billion bushels, through the first 45 weeks of the year. To reach the USDA projection of 2.1 billion bushels for the year, shipments during the final 7 weeks of the marketing year need to total 310 million bushels, or about 44 million per week. It appears that exports may fall a little short of the USDA forecast. Exports for the year are projected at 2.075 billion bushels.

    Use fo corn for food and industrial purposes during the third quarter of the year is estimated at 922 million bushels, 148 million more than during the same quarter a year ago. The increase reflected the rapid expansion in ethanol production that is still underway. The USDA projects corn use for ethanol for the entire marketing year at 2.15 billion bushels, and corn use for all food and industrial purposes at 3.525 billion bushels.

    Feed and residual use of corn during the third quarter is calculated at a 7 year low of 1.137 billion bushels, 153 million less than use in the previous year. The slow down in feed and residual use of corn in the face of expanding broiler and livestock numbers suggests that other feed ingredients were substituted for high-priced corn. Increased production of distillers dried grain and relatively low priced soybean meal apparently replaced some corn in livestock rations. For the year, feed and residual use of corn appears likely to reach only 5.775 billion bushels, the lowest level in four years. Use could even be less if substantial quantities of low quality hard red winter wheat are fed this summer. The USDA projects feed and residual use of corn at only 5.75 billion bushels.

    Based on current forecasts of marketing year consumption of corn, stocks of old-crop corn on September 1, 2007 are forecast at 1.137 billion bushels (Table 2). That projection is 830 million below the level of stocks at the beginning of the marketing year, but well above earlier forecasts.

    New Crop Prospects

    The USDA’s June Acreage report estimated planted acreage of corn in the U.S. in 2007 at 92.888 million acres, 2.434 million more than indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report and 14.561 million more than planted in 2006 (Table 3). All areas of the country experienced large year-over-year increases in corn acreage. Plantings increased by 1.9 million acres in Illinois, 1.7 million in Iowa, 1.1 million in Indiana, and 1.0 million in Nebraska. Acreage exceeded March intentions by 400,000 in Iowa and Indiana, 350,000 in Ohio, and 300,000 in Illinois and Minnesota. There is no particular factor that explains the large increase from intentions. Planting progress was generally timely and corn prices actually moved lowered following the release of the Prospective Plantings report. The USDA’s June report projected corn acreage harvested for grain in 2007 at 85.418 million acres, 14.77 million more than harvested in 2006. Harvested acreage will be influenced by late season growing conditions.

    The primary focus in the corn market is now on weather, crop conditions, and expected yield for 2007. There is some debate about the magnitude of the trend increase in the U.S. average yield. Since 1960, the U.S. average yield has increased about 1.85 bushels per acre per year. Based on a continuation of that trend, the trend yield in 2007 is 148.7 bushels per acre. Using an econometric model fit over 1990-2006 using trend, July weather, and planting progress, the USDA calculates the likely yield for 2007 at 150.3 bushels per acre. Observing the more rapid rate of increase in yields since 1996, others calculate the 2007 trend yield at higher values. Many attribute the recent, more rapid increase in yields to expanded adoption of biotechnology varieties. The USDA estimates that biotech varieties were planted in 61 percent of the acres in 2006 and 73 percent in 2007. In addition, more widespread application of fungicides may contribute to expectations for an increase in the trend yield. However, it appears that the more rapid rate of increase in yields over the past 10 years or so is more related to generally favorable weather than to more rapid development and adoption of yield-enhancing technology. Yield-enhancing technology may be developed and adopted at a more rapid pace in the future, but through 2006 there was no evidence of a more rapid increase in trend yields, after adjusting for weather conditions.

    Prior to the USDA’s August Crop Production report, yield expectations are based primarily on trend calculations adjusted for the condition of the crop. The USDA reports crop condition for the 18 major corn producing states each Monday afternoon. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between the U.S. average trend-adjusted yield and the percent of the crop rated in good or excellent condition in the last report of the season. The linear trend from 1960 through 2006 is used in this model. The relationship is as follows:

    U.S. average yield = 108.25 + .6327 x percent of the crop rated good or excellent

    Using this model, crop ratings explain about 81 percent of the annual variation in the trend adjusted yield. That relationship can be used to project the U.S. average yield, but requires the anticipation of the final crop ratings. Since there is some debate about trend values, there is uncertainty about final crop ratings, and there is not perfect correlation between crop condition and yield, the model is only useful as a guide. For example, 64 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition as of July 15. If ratings were maintained at this level through the season, the model would project an average yield of 148.7 bushels. Assuming that crop conditions will improve somewhat following mid-July rainfall and that August weather is normal a yield forecast of about 150 bushels seems reasonable at this point, but actual yield could deviate substantially; depending on growing conditions into early September. Yield forecasts from others are currently in the range of 147 to 160 bushels.

    An average yield of 150 bushels with harvested acreage at 85.4 million would result in a crop of 12.81 billion bushels. With carryover supplies of 1.137 billion, and imports of 15 million, total available supplies for the 2007-08 marketing year would be 13.962 billion bushels, 1.45 billion more than last year’s supply, but only 725 million more than the record supply of 2005-06 (Table 2).

    Consumption of U.S. corn is expected to increase substantially during the 2007-08 marketing year if supplies are adequate and prices are at reasonable levels. The increase will once again be led by expanding ethanol production. As of July 12, 2007, the Renewable Fuels Association indicated that 122 ethanol plants are currently in operation with total production capacity of 6.39 billion gallons. Seven of those plants were expanding capacity and an additional 74 plants were under construction. The completion of these projects would add 6.19 billion bushels of ethanol production capacity, roughly doubling the amount of corn consumed for ethanol production. Not all of those projects will be completed in the 2007-08 marketing year. The USDA projects corn use for ethanol during the 2007-08 marketing year at 3.4 billion bushels, 58 percent more than used during the 2006-07 marketing year. Given the large profit incentive, it is likely that use will exceed that projection. We are using a forecast of 3.5 billion bushels of corn for ethanol production. Use for all domestic food and industrial purposes may be near 4.9 billion bushels.

    Export demand for U.S. corn is difficult to forecast. The 2007 corn crops in Brazil and Argentina totaled 2.854 billion bushels, 590 million larger than the 2006 crops. The USDA expects Brazilian production to repeat the record 2007 production of 1.97 billion bushels again in 2008 and that Argentine production will increase by about 60 million bushels. The USDA also projects that the 2007 South African corn crop will be 157 million bushels larger than the 2006 harvest, but that exports will only grow by 10 million bushels. The large South American crops will provide competition for U.S. exports during the 2007-08 marketing year. However, the USDA projects an increase of only 20 million bushels in Argentine exports and no increase in Brazilian shipments. The most uncertainty centers around China. The 2006 harvest was a record 5.63 billion bushels and the 2007 crop is expected to be even larger at 5.83 billion bushels. Even so, Chinese corn exports are expected to decline from 177 million bushels in 2006-07 to 118 million bushels in 2007-08, as domestic use increases by nearly 200 million bushels to supply the rapidly expanding pork industry. It appears that U.S. exports during the 2007-08 marketing year could be near the 2.1 billion bushels. The USDA projects exports at 2 billion bushels. Sales of the 2007 crop have started briskly, with sales standing at 202 million bushels as of July 5, more than double the level of new crop sales a year earlier. In addition, it appears that unusually large quantities of sales for the 2006-07 marketing year will be rolled into the 2007-08 marketing year.

    Feed and residual use of corn will be influenced by the rate of expansion of broiler and livestock production and the relative price of feed ingredients. An additional 1.25 billion bushels used for ethanol production could replace about 140 million bushels of corn in domestic livestock rations. Even with some continued expansion in livestock production, feed use of corn could decline to about 5.7 billion bushels during the 2007-08 marketing year.

    At this juncture, it appears that corn consumption during the 2007-08 marketing year could by only slightly less than the size of the crop, resulting in very little build-up in stocks. This expectation differs from that of the USDA. In the report of July 12, 2007, the USDA forecast September 1, 2007 stocks at 1.137 billion bushels and September 1, 2008 stocks at 1.502 billion bushels.

    Price Prospects

    Our projections of likely production, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2007-08 marketing year result in a year ending stocks-to-use ratio of 9.9 percent, about equal the 10 percent we expect for the current marketing year. For the current marketing year, the average farm price will be near $3.05 per bushel. That price was significantly influenced by the large level of early sales at what turned out to be low prices. The average farm price received in September 2006 was only $2.20 and the price in October was only $2.54. Easily 40 percent of the 2006 crop was sold in the first four months of the marketing year at an average price of only about $2.70. Most early sales of the 2007 crop have been made at much higher prices than the sales of a year ago. In addition, given that early sales were a “mistakeâ€

  10. #10
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    Corn Coproduct Cuts Ethanol Production Costs


    The United States is the world's leading corn-growing country, with more than 40 percent of global production. More than 9 billion bushels were produced in 2001—the third highest yield on record, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.


    Where does all this corn end up? Most is used in livestock feed, but it is also processed into many food and industrial products. These include starch, sweeteners, corn oil, beverage and industrial alcohol, and ethanol fuel.


    Corn is an abundant and renewable resource, and the search for energy alternatives makes it a natural choice as a fuel source. The high starch content of corn can be converted to sugar and then fermented to ethanol fuel by brewer's yeast.




    Combining ethanol with gasoline lifts the octane level and makes a cleaner-burning fuel. In the 2000-2001 season, about 620 million bushels of corn were used in ethanol production, according to figures from USDA's Economic Research Service. This number could increase 10 percent in the 2001-2002 season. A federal tax exemption keeps ethanol economically competitive with petroleum fuel products but is due to expire in 2007.

    Cheaper Zein Means Cheaper Ethanol


    Ethanol production from corn creates a surplus of byproducts that are increasingly difficult to sell. Engineers at the Eastern Regional Research Center in Wyndmoor, Pennsylvania, saw the potential to lower production costs of ethanol by making these byproducts more valuable, which could create new markets. The researchers believed one approach was to develop a less expensive process to separate a valuable protein—zein—from corn.


    Zein is the main storage protein in the corn endosperm and makes up more than half the total mass of the seed protein. It is currently extracted from corn gluten. It is used mostly as an edible, water-resistant coating for nuts, confectionery products, or pharmaceutical tablets. Little zein is sold because it sells for about $10 a pound.

    "In the dry-milling ethanol process, zein is found in dried distillers grain—or DDG—which is mostly sold as a protein supplement in livestock feed," says James C. Craig, the recently retired former head of the Engineering Science Research Unit, where the project originated. But as ethanol production expands, the supply of DDG is expected to far exceed demand. "We believed we could develop a process to extract the zein at a cost that makes it attractive as a commodity."


    The researchers engineered and built a pilot ethanol plant at ERRC to find ways to improve the economic return of commercial corn-fermentation plants. The team broke the cost barrier for affordable zein with a system for bulk extraction. Their approach was to use the ethanol as a solvent to extract zein from dry-milled corn.


    "A key cost-savings in this process is that the solvent, ethanol, is already present, since it's the primary product," Craig says. "After fermentation, part of the ethanol produced can be recycled to the extraction step, used, and then returned downstream for separation."


    This method gives corn-ethanol plant owners an option of producing a value-added coproduct, zein, which would provide more revenue and reduce the overall cost of ethanol production. Efforts are now under way to determine the maximum concentration of zein that can be directly extracted from corn.


    The pilot plant work was carried out under the supervision of chemical engineer Leland C. Dickey. Pilot plants model commercial processes so that innovations can be evaluated in a realistic setting.

    Finding Added Value in Corn Kernels


    Traditionally, films made from commercial zein are too brittle and their tensile strength too low for most applications. Chemist Nicholas Parris is finding ways to improve the properties of zein isolated from ground corn.


    Recently, ERRC scientists isolated a zein-and-lipid mixture from dry-milled corn that costs about $1 a pound to produce. While not as pure as the zein currently on the market, it is still well suited for many applications. The lipid in the mixture replaces refined petroleum-based products that are used to make wax paper and wax-coated packaging. The mixture is an excellent material for coatings, according to Parris, because the zein portion resists grease, and the fatty acids repel water. Because lipids eliminate use of paraffin wax, the paper can be recycled. Unlike petroleum-derived waxes, the zein-lipid mixture is biodegradable.


    In the past, synthetic plasticizers have been used to improve the mechanical properties of films made from commercial zein. But Parris found that the presence of free fatty acids in the zein-lipid complex could have the same effect.


    A computer simulation model was designed to make cost estimates for production from commercial plants. The models are based on data from ethanol producers, engineering firms, equipment manufacturers, and other sources. ARS cost engineer Andy McAloon provides support to scientists and engineers to determine research direction and the costs of possible alternatives to standard industry practices. He uses the program to predict the economic impact of the research.

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