CHART SHOCK: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 23%
CHART SHOCK: The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22%
September 3, 2011
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It's now above 23% with the August update. Details from John William's Shadow Stats.
Shadow Stats
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.
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Bill H today:
To all; welcome to September! EVERYTHING is down today versus Gold and Silver, everything. Global stock markets are swooning, European banks are down on inslovency fears while their U.S. counterparts are down because U.S. authorities are in the process of suing them for the MBS market blowing up along with the fact that the global economy is clearly in meltdown phase. The "un" employment number by the way came in at "0" and would have been a negative one were it not for the magical 87,000 jobs fictitiously conjured up by BLS. My guess is that not only were the 87,000 jobs not "created", with all of the regulations on small businesses the BLS should actually be subtracting estimated jobs each month. No matter, the ugly truth is now impossible to hide and investors are finally figuring it out.
So, "how did that work out for you?". I am talking about the top callers and traders here, unless you were VERY nimble you probably got whipsawed trying to trade this bull market in Gold. In fact, I believe you had only a 2-3 day window to make the trade (BOTH sides) if you were using a mutual fund that can only be traded at the end of the day. We have broken out to new all time highs in the HUI index and hopefully we hold these gains for the day and get some chop/follow through next week en route to enormous gains in the Fall season. I would not be surprised to see a 35-50% move higher in the indexes and "doubles +++" on many juniors and explorers over this timeframe.
A very interesting article yesterday saying that mining companies as a whole now have all time record revenues and profits along with all time low debt levels and ratios. (I can't find the link, sorry) In such times as these where everything including sovereign government bonds are suspect, isn't it refreshing to know that there is an industry where cash flows are expanding at the same time debt levels are decreasing? ...And the best thing is that their "product" is money! Real money in a world of fake money! So for equity investors like Warren Buffett who just "don't like Gold" can pinch their noses and invest in a GROWTH INDUSTRY! Yes folks, that is what is unveiling before your eyes, Gold miners are morphing into "growth companies" on their way to becoming BLUE CHIPS!
I have said this many times before, the world is going full circle to where mining concerns will become "widow and orphan" stocks just as they were in the late 1800's and early 1900's. They will be producing a universally sought after product with continuing and growing demand, they will have some of the cleanest balance sheets on the planet and have the ability to pay generous dividends. Sound like a Blue Chip industry to you?
On the other hand we have what used to be "blue chips", the banking industry. Last week, Warren Buffett rode into Charlotte, North Carolina with a $5 Billion check for Bank of America. The stock immediately shot up to $8 and we heard a big sigh of relief. Fast forward a week later and anyone who bought that stock since his "bath tub brainstorm" is now sitting at a loss. The same goes almost universally for the other banks and financials. The point is, last week was merely a "relief rally" which we saw so many times back in 2008-09 (and in 1929-1939 for that matter) and the downtrend began again yesterday.
The banking system debacle (including sovereigns) is coming to a head this fall. This will include a mad rush into the mining sector to get seats on the "revaluation train". This is a very special "train". Similar in fashion to the one in "Back to the Future II and III". If you are aboard before it leaves, you will arrive in the next monetary system with your capital and buying power intact. I continue to believe the authorities will call for a "holiday" when they realize all is lost and too many are asking directions for the "train". The "holiday" will come and no more riders allowed on board. Game over and "you will have what you have and that's all you'll have" will become reality. Make sure you are fully prepared and in your seat ahead of this event.
I had planned to finish here but I just heard one of the anchors on CNBC questioning a guest saying "you mean to say that Keynesian money printing doesn't work?". Ya think? What was your first clue? Yes folks, it is finger pointing season and none of these bone heads have a clue as to "why" it isn't working. Panic is the next phase because to "them" there is no explanation as to why anything and everything that used to work, NO LONGER DOES! Uh oh! Regards, Bill H. P.S. I will try to write something for Monday but will be away the bulk of next week playing Cowboy with my hoss. I plan to bring him here to show early next year but I want to see the progress made over the last 4 months with the trainer. Truth be told I am suffering "withdrawals" and just plain need to ride! Have a nice weekend.
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