China Leads the Way to Strong Economic Growth 2010 and beyon

China Leads the Way to Strong Global Economic Growth 2010 and Beyond

Economics / China Economy
Dec 30, 2009 - 01:41 AM
By: Nadeem_Walayat

China is leading the way to the return of global growth with expectations for GDP growth for 2010 of as much as 10%, which further confirms expectations for the potential of a global growth story surprise to the upside for 2010. Whilst at the present time many analysts / commentators worry about China market bubbles, much as they worried about the "stocks bear market rally" that was always destined for an imminent demise during 2009 which instead was one of the greatest bull markets in history.

I don't see why China is not going to keep growing strongly for 2010, 2011 and beyond especially as domestic consumption becomes an ever larger part of China's growth story with other emerging markets not far behind. Having originally called the China stock market as a Great Buy at SSEC 2,000, with the index now at 3,200 up 92% from its bear market low just continues to prove how wrong the China doom mongers have been found out to be as the continue harping on about how China has to at some point withdraw the huge economic stimulus of 2009, though without understanding that with growing reserves of $2 trillion they do not have to as I pointed out back in June 2009. China Mega-trend Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update, SSEC Up 47%. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11644.html Many of the comments I made at the time of China boosting World trade and commerce is coming to pass and will increasingly do so during 2010.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...-market-28.gif

So regardless of volatility during 2010, China will continue to notch up a further gains during 2010 AND 2011, We could easily see the Chinese stock market end 2010 above SSEC 4,200 which 'should' help elevate all major stock markets higher, just as the Chinese economy helps elevate the major economies higher.

China's thirst for resources and energy also sets the scene for the continuing commodities bull markets right across the board as part of the inflation mega-trend scenario, which ensures mineral producing countries such as Australia and Canada and oil exporting countries will see China lift their economies higher as prices are driven higher.

This article is part of in-depth analysis that will conclude in a forecast for the UK economy for 2010 and 2011 and which follows the completion of the forecast for UK CPI inflation 2010 , which will be followed by the UK interest rate forecast for 2010 later this week.

Debt Fuelled Economic Recovery

UK GDP for the 3rd Quarter was revised marginally higher to minus 0.2% from the earlier ONS estimate of minus 0.3%. The GDP trend for the UK economy for 2009 has been accurately mapped out in the in depth analysis and forecast of 17th February 2009 (UK Recession Watch- Britain's Great Depression?), http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8926.html that both called for severe peak to trough economic contraction of -6.3% at a time when the likes of the UK Treasury were forecasting contraction of less than half at -3%. The analysis also concluded in a strong debt fuelled economic recovery during 2010 to coincide with a summer 2010 General Election. As of the revised ONS GDP data (ABMI Chain linked at Market Prices) total peak to trough contraction is now 6.23% virtually exactly inline with the forecast for -6.3%. Annualised contraction for the third quarter is at -4.56% with trend on target for -4.75% for the fourth quarter.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...dp-2009-q3.gif

The UK economy remains on track to bounce back strongly during 2010, as indicated by June's in depth analysis, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11088.html however this economic recovery is based largely on debt, as the Labour government's strategy is to deliver the next Conservative government a scorched earth economy. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10990.html

The UK GDP in-depth analysis will seek to update and forecast the UK economy at least 2 years forward.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16133.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16133.html