Thread: Diplomat Says Pakistan Will Retaliate if Israel Attacks Iran

Diplomat Says Pakistan Will Retaliate if Israel Attacks Iran

Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
February 5, 2012

A diplomat based in Islamabad said on Sunday that an Israeli attack on Iran would force Pakistan to support a Iranian response, according to the Israeli website Ynetnews.com.

The diplomat did not say if the Pakistani retaliation would be diplomatic or involve a conventional military or nuclear response.

Although estimates of Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile vary, it is believed the Islamic country has between 70 and 90 warheads. In 2000, U.S. military and intelligence sources put the number at 100. In 2007, retired Pakistani Brigadier-General Feroz Khan told a Pakistani newspaper that his country has “about 80 to 120 genuine warheads.”

Pakistan also has a number of delivery system for its nuclear weapons, including thermonuclear MIRV-equipped medium range ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2500 kilometers. It also has cruise missiles and is believed to be working on tactical nuclear weapons.

In August of 2011, it was reported that the United States considers Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal a threat and it has a “snatch-and-grab” plan for a worse case scenario.
Both Russia and China have said that an attack on Iran would be an attack on their national security.

“Iran is our close neighbor, just south of the Caucasus. Should anything happen to Iran, should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security,” Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s deputy prime minister and former envoy to NATO, said in mid-January.

“China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a third world war,” said Major General Zhang Zhaozhong in December.

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Iran raid likely to drag in U.S. and hurt global economy
By William Maclean
MUNICH | Sun Feb 5, 2012 4:43am EST


MUNICH (Reuters) - An Israeli raid on Iran's nuclear facilities would deliver a painful shock to the global economy, revive flagging Islamist militancy and possibly drag the United States into a regional war whether it backed its ally's attack or not.
As if that prospect was not alarming enough, any doubts Tehran entertained about the wisdom of building a nuclear weapon would vanish the moment the strike occurred.
These longstanding U.S. and European assumptions about the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran are being re-examined with greater urgency in Western capitals after repeated warnings by Israel that the chance of a peaceful resolution may be closing.
There is concern that Israel may attack in coming months to disrupt the transfer of parts of Iran's nuclear development work to an underground site south of Tehran that may be invulnerable to conventional bombing.
Western experts want Israel to think long and hard before embarking on a raid many suspect would spark a broader conflict.
"Whoever attacks Iran's nuclear infrastructure is really making the decision to go to war with Iran," Richard Burt, a former chief U.S. negotiator at strategic arms reduction talks, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
"We are talking about a range of great uncertainties, all of them basically negative, so this is one reason why consistently the joint chiefs of staff of the uniformed military in the U.S. do not like the idea of attacking Iran."
Analysts detect a growing gap between Israeli and Western views on using force against Tehran's nuclear program, which Tehran says is purely for peaceful purposes but the West suspects is aimed at acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.
The New York Times recently reported that Israeli leaders, based on intelligence estimates and academic studies, had taken the view that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear installations would not produce such catastrophic events as regional war, widespread attacks by militants and massive oil price rises.
The newspaper said that Israeli leaders and agencies believe that Iran's threats to retaliate against Israeli and Western targets if attacked were "overblown" and partly bluff.
Asked to spell out the consequences of a strike, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said that he not want to explore a hypothetical question, arguing any risks "would be dwarfed in comparison to the danger of a nuclear Iran."
"One thing is clear," he told Reuters. "If Iran becomes nuclear then it's the end of world order as we know it ... This is what we have to think about, and not about what will happen in case some action is being taken.
U.S. newspaper The Washington Post reported last week that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believed Israel was likely to bomb Iran within months to stop it building a nuclear bomb.
Panetta declined to comment. But his alleged remarks and other Obama administration statements indicate the White House is focused on dissuading Israel from taking action - and distancing itself from an Israeli strike if persuasion fails.
The consequences of an Israeli attack would be wide-ranging and destabilizing.
IRAN EXPELS NUCLEAR INSPECTORS, QUITS TREATY
Iran would expel International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, ending any possibility of a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue.
"There is not a country on Earth that is going to blame them for doing that, they are all going to blame Israel. Once Iran is out of the NPT, the sanctions are gone," Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, told Reuters.
Leaving the NPT would disrupt the sanctions regime since its measures are predicated upon enforcing treaty compliance.
IRAN DECIDES TO GO FOR THE BOMB
Experts say a raid would only delay, not destroy Iran's program. And once it had recovered, Iran would probably seek to develop nuclear weapons. Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for International and Strategic Studies, told Reuters Iran would redouble "efforts to develop a deterrent so it never happens again."
OIL PRICES SOAR, JOLT FINANCIAL MARKETS
A strike on Iran and Iran's response, including attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for oil shipments, or an attack on Saudi oilfields, would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices that could seriously harm the U.S. economy, jeopardizing President Barack Obama's chances for re-election.
Saudi Arabia would be forced to use all its spare output capacity, a crucial safety cushion for oil markets.
But the most serious fears debated at oil trading desks include the possibility of Iran mining the straits, attacking ships as it did during the Iran-Iraq war, or challenging the legality of the passage of some vessels through its territorial waters.
In the event of a big stoppage the consuming nations' International Energy Agency would very likely release emergency government stocks to tame prices, as it did in June last year when Libyan output was lost.
Israel's Ayalon argues that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a greater threat to the oil market as it could dictate prices. "It will be the end of the free flow of oil from the Gulf."
IRAN HITS BACK IN THE GULF, LEVANT, POSSIBLY ASIA
Tehran has warned several times it may seal off the Strait of Hormuz, choking the supply of Gulf crude and gas, if attacked or if sanctions mean it cannot export its oil.
But many experts say Iran's leaders will be looking for ways to harass enemies and cause disruption while falling short of triggering massive U.S.-led retaliation.
Possible Iranian actions could include harrying tanker traffic in the Gulf with fast attack boats, seizing uninhabited Gulf islands claimed by other states or grabbing hostages from passing civilian or military ships, stoking trouble in Sunni Muslim-ruled Arab states with restive Shi'ite Muslim communities and orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan or elsewhere using militant "proxies" such as Hezbollah.
If the Iranian government interprets the strike as a fully-fledged attempt at regime change, it might adopt a more muscular response could include ballistic-missile salvos on civilian and military targets in the Gulf.
US GETS SUCKED IN, MAY ITSELF BECOME TARGET
Obama also would likely come under intense domestic pressure to back Israel's actions and come to Israel's defense if Iran succeeds in landing missile attacks on Israel's territory.
In a 2009 study for the Council on Foreign Relations, Middle East analyst Steve Simon, who is now Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the U.S. National Security Council, says that the United States would probably become embroiled militarily in any Iranian retaliation against Israel or other countries in the region.
Experts say Israel alone does not have the firepower to kill off Iran's nuclear program and any U.S. help in that effort would therefore be very welcome. A study by former senior British intelligence official said the "The US would be assumed complicit, and would become embroiled in defending Israel against a counter-attack. This would stretch the U.S. military."
STRAIN IN ISRAELI-WESTERN TIES
In November, the top U.S. military officer told Reuters he did not know whether Israel would alert the United States ahead of time if it decided to take military action against Iran.
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also acknowledged differences in perspective between the United States and Israel over the best way to handle Iran.
In an indication of a divergence in Israeli and Western views, a senior former British intelligence official wrote in a private analysis in 2011 that the West had two objectives: prevent the Iranian bomb, and also "prevent Iran being bombed."
"Both outcomes would be potentially disastrous for our national security," he wrote.
Referring to a strike, he went on, "the likely damage (to Iran's program) would outweigh the benefits."
"There would be problems between the U.S. and Israel, .and probably tensions between the U.S. and European allies as well."
U.S. POSITION IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONSTRAINED
Simon's CFR study states that since the United States would be viewed as having assisted Israel, U.S. efforts to foster better relations with Muslims would almost certainly suffer.
Anti-U.S. sentiment would be inflamed in Muslim countries, especially Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories. Hamas and Hezbollah would be likely to intensify attacks making a Middle East settlement even more unlikely.
"If the Israelis think they can attack Iran and remain immune they are living in a fools' paradise," said Farhang Jahanpour of the Oxford University Faculty of Oriental Studies.
He said a raid would create "huge anti-Israeli feeling" and an "Islamic backlash" in the region.
Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said in a January interview with The Real News website a strike would be a "disaster for us more than for Israel in the short run, and a fundamental disaster for Israel in the long run."
Neither the Russians or Europeans would side with America in any resulting conflict. He said that the United States could be "forced out of the region," a development he suggested would imperil Israel's existence.
WILL IRANIANS RALLY TO THEIR GOVERNMENT?
A RAND Corporation report in 2011 noted that the use or threat of force to compel Iran to halt its nuclear program would probably strengthen domestic support for the government.
But an analyst in Iran who asked not to be identified as the subject was sensitive said he doubted whether there would be an uptick in popularity for the government, as there was during the country's war with Iraq in the 1980s.
"The Iran-Iraq wartime public allegiance to the regime has diminished because of various factors. Public dissatisfaction is on increase over failing economy, hostile foreign policy and political infighting among the elites," said the analyst.
Michael Axworthy, director of the Centre for Persian and Iranian Studies at Britain's Exeter University, told Reuters that while Iranians might not rally to their rulers, they would tend to "go along with the statements that are produced."
"This is a regime that expects to be isolated and to some extent thrives on isolation," he said.
POSSIBLE SPUR TO PROLIFERATION BY OTHERS
Former U.S. negotiator Burt said some aspirant nuclear weapons powers might respond to a strike on Iran by redoubling efforts to get the bomb as a deterrent. But it was difficult to generalize and not all countries would take that view.
Ayalon said it would be the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran that would be the real spur to proliferation. (Additional reporting by Peter Apps in London, Andrew Quinn, Mark Hosenball, Tabassum Zakaria in Washington)

(Reporting by William Maclean)
Iran raid likely to drag in U.S. and hurt global economy | Reuters

Turkey says Attack on Iran will be disastrous

Press TV
February 5, 2012

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has urged diplomacy to resolve Western concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, warning that a military strike will result in a “disaster.”
“A military option will create a disaster in our region. So before that disaster, everybody must be serious in negotiations. We hope soon both sides will meet again but this time there will be a complete result,” Davutoglu said during a speech at the Munich Security Conference, a gathering of security officials and diplomats.
“If there is strong political will and mutual confidence being established, this issue could be resolved in a few days,” he said. “The technical disputes are not so big. The problem is mutual confidence and strong political will.”
The United States, Israel and accuse Tehran of pursuing military objectives in its nuclear program and used this pretext to push for international and unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic as well as calls for a military attack on the country.
On Thursday, a Washington Post article revealed US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June” and that the Obama administration is “conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States.”
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that if Western sanctions against Iran fail to stop its nuclear program, military action against the country must be an option.
“Should sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program, there will be a need to consider taking action,” Barak said.
Iran has refuted the allegations over its nuclear program, arguing that as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is entitled to use nuclear technology for peaceful use.
Iranian officials have also promised a crushing response to any military strike against the country, warning that any such measure could result in a war that would spread beyond the Middle East.

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US Warns Iran Not To Fight Back Against Israeli Attack

US warship remains in Strait Of Hormuz amidst simmering tensions

Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
Friday, February 3, 2012

The USS Abraham Lincoln warship has remained stationed in the Strait of Hormuz despite an Iranian threat that no more aircraft carriers should transit the sensitive oil choke point as tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to simmer with Washington warning Tehran it will join an Israeli attack if Iran dares to fight back in any way.Stratfor’s latest naval update map shows that the USS Lincoln has not moved from its position having transited the Strait almost two weeks ago. Similarly, the USS Carl Vinson has also remained in its position, suggesting US Naval officials are satisfied with the strategic position of the two warships as Israel prepares to launch an attack on Iran in which the US could quickly become embroiled.
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta “believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June,” reports the Washington Post, adding that Panetta was likely told of the timing when Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak postponed a a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that had been scheduled for May.It now appears that the United States has almost finalized getting all its ducks in a row in preparation for Israel’s assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Washington Post article makes it clear that the Obama administration will stand by while Tel Aviv leads the attack. The US will only become overtly involved if “Iran hits U.S. assets” or if “Israel’s population centers were hit”.
In other words, if Iran attempts to fight back in any way, which is all but inevitable, the US will join the attack. The Obama administration will then think itself justified in telling the American people that the US acted in self-defense, when in reality such a series of coordinated events is absurdly obvious.
“I can’t say clearly enough that what the U.S. has signaled in Ignatius’ report is that if Iran is attacked, it may not strike back against its attacker,” writes Richard Silverstein. “If it does, the U.S. will rain down hellfire and damnation on it. This is frightening beyond measure. I’ve never known the U.S. to lay down such a principle which virtually assures our joining in a war against Iran. Israeli policymakers will be delighted to read these words.”
Both Washington and Tel Aviv are hoping for a repeat of Operation Orchard, Israel’s attack on a Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007 that prompted no significant retaliation from Assad’s regime. However, Iran’s Air Force is second only to Israel’s in the region and Tehran’s surface to air missile capability is far superior.
A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise, is set to add even more firepower in the 5th Fleet region after it completes a training exercise in the Atlantic Ocean. British and French warships are also in place to provide further back-up.
It has also been revealed that the nuclear submarine USS Annapolis and the destroyer USS Momsen are likely to heading towards the Persian Gulf in the build up to a possible attack on Iran.
The United States has sent both the Lincoln and the Vinson sailing through the Strait in recent weeks despite Iran’s warning that any more US warships transiting the narrow passageway would not be tolerated. Tehran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, an act that would cause chaos on global oil markets, has been described as a “red line” by the United States.
The US is currently conducting its biggest naval exercises in over a decade. The Bold Alligator joint Navy and Marine Corps exercise, taking place off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina, is clearly geared towards simulating a naval conflict with Iranian forces despite official claims to the contrary.
According to Israeli intelligence outfit Debka File, the United States has placed 50,000 troops to be ready for “any contingency” by March, with another 50,000 on the way, on two two strategic islands at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, 15,000 troops are also on standby in Kuwait.
Tehran is set to conduct more naval exercises in the Strait later this month. Experts estimate that around 1,000 mines would be required to block the 55km wide passage and that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have already stockpiled 2,000 mines for that very purpose.




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Iran Air Force ready to counter threats

Press TV
February 5, 2012
Top Iranian military commander Brigadier General Abdolrahim Mousavi says Iran’s Army Air Force (IRAF) is fully prepared to counter any potential threats against the country.

“[Iran’s] Army Air Force is ready to identify any [kind of] aggression and counter them,” the deputy Chief of Staff of Iran’s Army said on Saturday.

The Iranian commander said during recent years the IRAF has identified and landed unknown aircrafts which entered Iran’s airspace.

On December 4, the Iranian military’s electronic warfare unit announced that Iran had downed with minimal damage the US RQ-170 Sentinel stealth reconnaissance aircraft, while it was in violation of the Iranian airspace.

The aircraft, designed and developed by the American company Lockheed Martin, had crossed Iran’s border with Afghanistan and was brought down as it was flying above the northeastern city of Kashmar.

Mousavi added that with its tactical competence and state-of-the-art equipment, the IRAF is fully prepared to defend the country’s aerial borders.

In recent years, Iran has made major breakthroughs in its defense sector and attained self-sufficiency in producing important military equipment and systems.

However, the Islamic Republic has repeatedly assured that its military might poses no threat to other countries, saying the country’s defense doctrine is based on deterrence.

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Iran Air Force ready to counter threats

Press TV
February 5, 2012
Top Iranian military commander Brigadier General Abdolrahim Mousavi says Iran’s Army Air Force (IRAF) is fully prepared to counter any potential threats against the country.

“[Iran’s] Army Air Force is ready to identify any [kind of] aggression and counter them,” the deputy Chief of Staff of Iran’s Army said on Saturday.

The Iranian commander said during recent years the IRAF has identified and landed unknown aircrafts which entered Iran’s airspace.

On December 4, the Iranian military’s electronic warfare unit announced that Iran had downed with minimal damage the US RQ-170 Sentinel stealth reconnaissance aircraft, while it was in violation of the Iranian airspace.

The aircraft, designed and developed by the American company Lockheed Martin, had crossed Iran’s border with Afghanistan and was brought down as it was flying above the northeastern city of Kashmar.

Mousavi added that with its tactical competence and state-of-the-art equipment, the IRAF is fully prepared to defend the country’s aerial borders.

In recent years, Iran has made major breakthroughs in its defense sector and attained self-sufficiency in producing important military equipment and systems.

However, the Islamic Republic has repeatedly assured that its military might poses no threat to other countries, saying the country’s defense doctrine is based on deterrence.

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