Thread: Fierce hurricane season predicted

Fierce hurricane season predicted

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Federal forecasters Thursday called for an "active" to "extremely active" hurricane season this year. They predict anywhere from 14 to 23 named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Of those named storms, eight to 14 should become hurricanes, including three to seven "major" hurricanes with wind speeds above 111 mph.

FORECAST Q&A: Rice answered your questions

This prediction is the highest of any that federal forecasters have made since they began issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1998.

Tropical storms are given a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph. They are upgraded to hurricane status when their sustained winds reach 74 mph. An average Atlantic hurricane season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes; two become major hurricanes.

Forecasters do not predict the number of storms that will make landfall.

The forecast was announced Thursday morning by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Forecasters say that some of the factors that support this outlook include a weakening El Nino, record warm Atlantic Ocean water, and the fact that we're in an era of high activity.

Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Nino is dissipating. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

Sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees above average – are now present in this region, NOAA reports.

Also, since 1995, the Atlantic is in an era of increased hurricane activity. There are consistently favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions for storm formation.

At the press conference, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) administrator Craig Fugate stressed preparedness. "The most important thing for people to remember as we head into any hurricane season is to prepare, prepare, prepare," he said. "FEMA is working with all our federal, state and local partners to ensure we?re prepared, but we can only be as prepared as the public. It?s critical that families and businesses take steps now to get ready."

Thursday's NOAA forecast is similar to earlier predictions by researchers at Colorado State University and the AccuWeather commercial weather service. The Colorado State team, led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, forecasts that 15 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin; it says there is a 69% chance of a major hurricane striking land.

AccuWeather predicts that 16-18 named storms will form; six are expected to strike the USA.

The season officially runs June 1 through Nov. 30. However, most hurricanes tend to form from August through October, according to National Hurricane Center records. The first storm of this year in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico will be Alex, followed by Bonnie, Colin and Danielle.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the Eastern Pacific basin, where 9 to 15 named storms are expected. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms. Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the USA, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

NOAA forecasts for named tropical storms and hurricanes have been accurate in five out of the 10 years in this decade, according to a USA TODAY analysis. Their prediction was too low in four years and too high in just one year: 2006. Eight of the 10 years in the decade saw above-average activity for tropical storms and hurricanes.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/ ... tion_N.htm

Isn't it amazing how they know the number. Google "HAARP" and maybe you'll find the answer.

One hurricane in the Gulf could move a lot of oil miles inland.

You think it's a mess now? Wait until it gets spread inland too.

i will believe it when i see it.
the numbers always seem to be high like this and in mid season
they always adjust them DOWN

It only takes ONE hurricane to make a real mess of things.

I wish they would keep their predictions to themselves.Everytime they predict Gloom & Doom our Home Owners Insurance goes up several hundred dollars.

Floridians already pay through the nose for insurance and cannot bear much more.

My insurance has gone up 500% in the last 4 years.

Tropical Storm kills 83 in Central America

Updated 33m ago

GUATEMALA CITY (AP) — The death toll in Central America from landslides and flooding triggered by the year's first tropical storm surged to 83 on Sunday, as authorities struggled to clear roads of debris and reach cut-off communities.

Torrential rains that have pounded an area stretching from southern Mexico nearly to Nicaragua eased somewhat, as rivers continued to rise and word filtered out from isolated areas of more deaths in landslides.

In Guatemala, 73 people were killed as rains unleashed lethal landslides across the country, according to government disaster relief spokesman David de Leon.

Tropical Storm Agatha made landfall near the nation's border with Mexico with winds up to 45 mp on Saturday and was dissipating rapidly Sunday over the mountains of western Guatemala.

In El Salvador, President Mauricio Funes warned that the danger had not yet passed and reported nine deaths.

"Although the storm appears to be diminishing in intensity, the situation across the country remains critical," Funes said.

In Honduras, one death was linked to the weather, and a fishing boat was missing off the Pacific coast with eight aboard.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that remnants of the storm were expected to deliver 10 to 20 inches of rain over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and parts of El Salvador.

As of Sunday afternoon, 75,000 people in Guatemala had been evacuated, many to shelters. At least 3,500 homes sustained major damage.

Thirteen died in one landslide that tore through the community of San Antonio Palopo on the steep banks of Lake Atitlan, a popular tourist attraction 40 miles east of Guatemala City.

Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom said 4.3 inches of rain had fallen in Guatemala City's valley in one 12-hours period.

The rains unleashed chaos in the department of Quetzaltenango, 125 miles west of Guatemala City, where a boulder loosened by rains crushed a house, killing four people including two children. Four children were killed when rain-soaked earth gave way in the town of Santa Catarina Pinula, about six miles outside the capital.

Cesar George of Guatemala's meteorological institute said the coastal community of Champerico had received 11.8 inches of rain in 30 hours.

Rainfall from the Guatemalan interior also flooded rivers coursing away from the storm toward the Atlantic. The Motagua River flooded 19 communities near Guatemala's northeastern border with Honduras.

In El Salvador, there were at least 140 landslides throughout the country.

Civil defense officials said the Acelhuate River that passes through the capital, San Salvador, had risen to dangerous levels and was threatening to overflow into city streets.

Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras all declared emergencies designed to increase immediate government aid and resources.

Guatemala City's La Aurora airport remained closed Sunday because of heavy ash that fell from last week's eruptions of Pacaya volcano. But volcanic activity had tapered off Sunday, allowing helicopters and small planes to deliver aid to communities still unreachable on washed out roads.

The Honduran national emergency agency Copeco reported one man was crushed to death by a wall that collapsed in the town of Santa Ana, near the capital of Tegucigalpa.

Flooding and slides destroyed 45 homes in the Honduras and prompted authorities to evacuate 1,800 people, according to figures released by the agency.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/ ... atha_N.htm