Thread: Angela Merkel faces possible defeat in German regional poll

Philip Oltermann in Berlin

Sunday 4 September 2016 10.44 BST

Angela Merkel faces possible defeat in German regional poll

CDU lagging behind Social Democrats and anti-immigration AfD in chancellor’s Mecklenburg-Vorpommern constituency

Angela Merkel could face a humiliating defeat in regional elections in her own constituency of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where some polls have put her Christian Democratic Union party third behind the Social Democrats and the rightwing populists Alternative für Deutschland.

Earlier this year, the chancellor’s centre-right CDU looked like the party most likely to be tasked with forming the next government after Sunday’s vote in the eastern state, but in one recent survey its support dropped to 20%, behind the AfD on 23% and the centre-left SPD on 28%.

For the past 10 years, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has been governed in a “grand coalition” between the SPD and CDU, mirroring the current power structure at federal level.

An increasingly divisive debate over the consequences of the German government’s strategy during the refugee crisis has spurred support for the anti-immigration AfD – fronted in the state by Leif-Erik Holm, a radio presenter based in Berlin’s multicultural Prenzlauer Berg district – even though only 3.7% of the state’s population is of non-German background, one of the lowest rates in the country.

Leif-Erik Holm of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) . Photograph: Joachim Herrmann/ReutersIn May, a pig’s head carrying an insulting message was left outside Merkel’s constituency office in the Baltic sea town of Stralsund, where the German chancellor has won a direct mandate since 1990.

The northernmost of the five former East German states that joined with the West German federal republic in 1990, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has in the past been troubled by industrial decline and a dwindling population, but last year registered the lowest unemployment rate and highest GDP since reunification.

In part due to its economic weakness and low population density, the region was assigned fewer refugees than all but two of Germany’s 16 other Länder; 23,080 asylum seekers were registered in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 2015, roughly a quarter of those assigned to similarly sized Hesse.

In the past year, the state has registered no high-profile criminal incidents, such as terrorist attacks or rape, carried out by asylum seekers, and a decline in theft and violent crime. Police in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern recorded seven incidents of attempted arson at refugee shelters in 2015.

A shooting rampage in Munich and two attacks with an Islamist motive in regional towns in Bavaria in July have fostered a national debate about internal security. Lorenz Caffier, the Christian Democrat candidate in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, was one of the politicians behind a call for a ban on the full face veil in Germany last month.

Polls in the region close at 6pm local time (5pm BST) on Sunday, with first exit polls expected to be announced an hour later.

Angela Merkel faces possible defeat in German regional poll | World ...

MERKEL'S JUDGEMENT DAY: Anti-migrant party set for HUGE victory as Germans head to vote

A GERMAN anti-migrant party is set for a staggering victory at the polls amid growing discontent with Chancellor Angela Merkel a year after she announced her open borders policy.

By VICKIIE OLIPHANT
PUBLISHED: 09:45, Sun, Sep 4, 2016 | UPDATED: 10:30, Sun, Sep 4, 2016

REUTERS The election is taking place exactly a year after Mrs Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders

Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland party (AfD) is expected to secure 22 per cent of the vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern today, which will be followed by another key vote in Berlin in two weeks and national elections in September.

Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrat Union (CDU) is expected to win a similar share of votes, but will be facing an uphill struggle after already being rejected in favour of the AfD in THREE state elections already in March.

The election is taking place exactly a year after Mrs Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders to thousands of refugees, which sparked wide spread criticism and calls for her to resign from her opposition.

A win for AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern , a small coastal town in northeastern Germany with just 1.3million eligible voters, could be embarrassing for the CDU leader - whose own electoral district is in the state.

Merkel is attending a G20 summit as voters go to the polls

Party candidate Leif-Erik Holm said: "We hope to become the strongest party in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania."

The anti-immigration party, founded two years after the last election in the state and adopted an anti-Islam policy in May 2016, is also expected to make gains nationwide as Germany goes to the polls today.

A new survey has revealed that if the national election were held next week, the AfD would win 12 per cent of the vote - making it the third largest party in Germany.

Meanwhile Mrs Merkel’s approval ratings have sunk to a five-year low of 45 per cent over the past year.

Making a last minute campaign appearance in the district, she warned voters against the politics of “angst” offered by the AfD and instead look at the current coalition’s policies that have halved unemployment and boosted tourism.

She said: “It’s going to be a tight race, every vote counts. This election is about the future of this state."

But she also defended her decision to welcome so many migrants into Germany - 1.1million last year - while denying that her decision cut funding for the German public.

On Saturday Mrs Merkel told Bild newspaper: "We did not reduce benefits for anyone in Germany as a result of the aid for refugees. In fact, we actually saw social improvements in some areas.

"We took nothing away from people here. We are still achieving our big goal of maintaining and improving the quality of life in Germany.

“On that weekend (in 2015) it was not about opening the border for everyone, it was about not shutting it to those who had made their way to us from Hungary, on foot and in great need of help.”

Only two per cent of migrants arriving in Germany have gone to live in her own district.

MERKEL'S JUDGEMENT DAY: Anti-migrant party set for HUGE victory as Germans head to vote