Gallup Sees Consumer Confidence Tumbling To December Lows

by Tyler Durden
03/01/2011 15:38 -0500

It was just earlier this week that a bunch of irrelevant confidence trackers said that US consumer confidence had hit 3 year highs. Oddly enough, ground data not only does not confirm this data, but says it is merely more baseless propaganda. According to Gallup, which actually knows how to poll, "Americans have become much less confident in the U.S. economy over the past two weeks, with Gallup's Economic Confidence Index falling from -18 to -30 during that span. The -18 Index score from two weeks ago was the most positive Gallup had measured in the last three years." And as we suspected when we reported the latest confidence data "These results ... indicate the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, released Friday but based mostly on interviewing from early and mid-February, was essentially out of date when it was released. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer confidence to be the highest it has been since January 2008, similar to what Gallup showed two weeks ago. But Gallup's latest weekly update suggests consumer confidence has fallen back to where it was in early December." http://www.gallup.com/poll/122840/Gallu ... dexes.aspx Luckily bad news no longer matters.

From Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/146420/Econo ... Weeks.aspx



More on this index which actually makes sense:

The slump in confidence is likely tied to gas prices, which have risen sharply amid growing political instability in the Middle East, most notably in Libya. The U.S. Department of Energy reported an increase in gas prices from an average $3.14 per gallon nationwide during the week ending Feb. 14 to $3.38 this past week. In addition, news media focus on the challenges governments are having in passing budgets may also affect Americans' perceptions of the economy.

All key demographic and attitudinal subgroups are less confident now than in mid-February. The drop is slightly greater among Democrats, who were in positive territory two weeks ago, than among Republicans. Younger adults, Democrats, and higher socioeconomic status respondents remain relatively more confident than other subgroups.



The implication is that just like the market has an attention span of a few milliseconds, the same goes for the US consumer:

The recent trend in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index shows that consumers' views of the economy can change fairly quickly in response to events. This means consumer confidence measures based on monthly reporting periods, such as those conducted by the Conference Board and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan, may not reflect the current state of consumer attitudes when they are released, because they are based largely on surveys conducted during the first part of a month. Should the current trend continue, other measures of consumer confidence will show declines in their March reports -- which are released near the end of March -- though the decline appears to have begun in late February.

The short-term prospects for a turnaround in consumer confidence do not appear great, with gas prices likely to continue to rise, with state and federal governments facing increasingly difficult budget situations, and unemployment remaining high.

We somehow doubt this latest piece of actual objective data will make its way into the Mainstream Media's news rotation any time soon.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gallup ... ember-lows