Thread: Red tide rising, blue wave receding | Dems in for another shock as the old voter turn

Red tide rising, blue wave receding

Dems in for another shock as the old voter turnout models used by pollsters look to be worthless.

October 11, 2018
By Thomas Lifson

Evidence is accumulating that Democrats have seriously overplayed their hands in their treatment of Justice Brett Kavanaugh and their calls for violence. This is the result of the dangerous combination of two factors:
1. Trump Derangement Syndrome has blinded them to the possibility of a significant number of people disagreeing with them.
2. They lack any feedback mechanisms to warn them of the reactions they are provoking, because their allies the mainstream media share their TDS. Moreover, they regard Fox News and the conservative blogosphere as heretics and disregard any feedback from them as unworthy of attention.
In fairness, this situation is quite similar to what prevailed prior to the 2016 election that resulted in massive failure of the polls to predict Trump's victory.
Rasmussen, which did better than anyone else in the polling business in 2016, has captured a key result of the Dems' disgraceful conduct:

Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh controversy than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of all Likely U.S. Voters say they are more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections because of the controversy surrounding President Trump's U.S. Supreme Court nominee. Only nine percent (9%) say they are less likely to vote. Thirty-four percent (34%) say the controversy will have no impact on their vote. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans are more likely to vote because of the Kavanaugh controversy, compared to 54% of Democrats and 46% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters are angry about the U.S. Senate's treatment of Kavanaugh, with 42% who are Very Angry. Fifty-six percent (56%) are angry about how the Senate treated Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault, including 35% who are Very Angry.
Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans are Very Angry about the Senate's treatment of Kavanaugh, a view shared by 30% of Democrats and 34% of unaffiliated voters. By comparison, fewer Democrats (48%) are Very Angry about the Senate's treatment of Ford; 28% of GOP voters and 30% of unaffiliateds agree.
Democrats' five-point lead on the weekly Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot has vanished. The two parties are now tied with less than a month until Election Day. We'll be watching to see if this is the beginning of a post-Kavanaugh trend.

Conrad Black identifies a separate but related reason why polling models may be misleading us:

[A]lmost the entire lower 30% of income-earners now have prospects of employment, rising purchasing power in their pay envelopes, and a greater sense of belonging in the political system since the era of President Clinton, if not President Reagan, or for the more venerable, President Roosevelt.
Now, no one is left behind, and there remains circumstantial evidence that most of the polling organizations still haven't adjusted their echelon of the voting public to reflect the army of this president's supporters among those who had rarely voted since the Reagan years because they didn't identify with any presidential candidate.
The entire "one third of a nation ... at the bottom of the economic pyramid" identified by Franklin D. Roosevelt, parched in austerity and deprivation, is being irrigated with livable wages and real employment. Both the material and psychological consequences will be seen at the voting places next month.
Finally, people are getting used to President Trump. He is the president after all, and no sane person now imagines that he can be successfully impeached or can even claim that he is incompetent, no matter how unorthodox his methods, grating some of his foibles, and uncongenial many find some of his policy positions.

If the Democrats once again wake up the day after votes are tabulated and find themselves shocked, it will push many of them even farther over the edge of the cliff into insanity.

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