Cheryl Hall
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11:35 PM CDT on Saturday, May 17, 2008
By CHERYL HALL / The Dallas Morning News
cherylhall@dallasnews.com

In the last eight years, Dallas-Fort Worth has experienced enviable population gains. It added more people than any other metropolitan area in the nation – with the exception of Atlanta, which had a slight edge.

The gains can largely be attributed to two "H" factors: Hispanics and housing.

A total of 6.32 million people call the 12-county D-FW metro area home, an increase of 1.16 million since 2000. It added more residents than the Chicago, New York or Los Angeles areas.

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Illustration: How D-FW measures up in 2008
Besides Hispanic population growth and affordable housing, D-FW is bolstered by a still-robust economy, a healthy job market and urban vitality.

So says a study prepared for The Dallas Morning News by ESRI, a Redlands, Calif., demographic and geographic systems company that crunched data from April 1, 2000, through a projected July 1.

ESRI predicts a slight uptick in the D-FW metro area's growth rate through 2013. If these calculations pan out, it will have 7.2 million residents five years from now. Hispanics, who accounted for nearly half of the net population gain since 2000, will be nearly 2 million strong.

"But D-FW isn't just drawing Hispanics," said Edmond Ting, ESRI's manager of data development. "The growth is highly diverse in ethnicity and income. And while D-FW may not be drawing many retirees – as Florida does – it's attracting vibrant age diversity. It is increasingly attractive to young professionals looking for a better lifestyle."

Dana Johnson, the chief economist for Comerica Inc., helped make the decision to move the bank here from Detroit last year.

"This is widely perceived as a great place to have a career," Dr. Johnson said. "As people come in, they create new demand as well as a new supply of labor. It has supercharged the growth of the local economy."

Dr. Johnson also has a warning: If Dallas-Fort Worth is to become a pre-eminent economy, it needs to invest more in first-rate educational institutions – from preschools to universities.

"Given the size of the population increase, we're not expanding the educational infrastructure proportionally," he said.


Profound influence

There is no doubt about the power of the Hispanic numbers and their demographics.

D-FW's Hispanics are young – 69 percent are under 35, and half are under 25.

Domestic immigrants – people moving from other parts of the U.S. – accounted for the largest portion of North Texas' Hispanic growth, Mr. Ting said. But babies born here also played a substantial role. Foreign immigrants made up the smallest segment.

When you zero in on Dallas County, the influence is more profound. New Hispanics, primarily babies and foreign immigrants, accounted for 99 percent of its net population gain.

"That number is astounding," Mr. Ting said.

If you factor out all births in Dallas – Hispanic and non-Hispanic – and all foreign immigrants, this region's biggest county lost population in the last eight years.

"Presumably, people are moving to the surrounding suburbs to be first-time homebuyers or for larger homes or more space," said Mr. Ting, who has been following U.S. population trends for two decades.

ESRI, which provided the study to The News for free, starts with U.S. Census data and combines it with information from other polls and marketing surveys. The company is one of the oldest geographic information systems firms in the U.S.


Big deals in Big D

ESRI says that many people decide to relocate because they want to own a better home in a vibrant environment. D-FW gives more housing bang for the buck than many major metropolitan areas.

The median income here is $64,300, while a typical house costs $133,000. In Los Angeles, the typical worker makes $3,000 a year less but has to pay four times as much for a median-income home.

"If your job situation is mobile, why not sell that house, move to metro Dallas and buy a dream home?" Mr. Ting said.

Hispanic growth and affordable housing were the most critical elements for net population gains in Houston, Phoenix and Riverside, Calif., which ranked third, fourth and fifth.

Houston added 1.13 million residents – more than half of them Hispanics. Its housing affordability matches that of D-FW.

Atlanta, the only top-five metropolitan area not propelled by Hispanics, was greatly influenced by people trying to escape high housing prices in the Northeast and Florida, Mr. Ting said.


New York, Miami

Population growth in metro New York (including northern New Jersey and Long Island) slowed by about 40 percent in the last eight years. And in sheer numbers, metro Miami (including Fort Lauderdale and Pompano Beach) gained half as many people as D-FW since 2000.

Metro Los Angeles, which gained just under a million people, saw its non-Hispanic population drop by 168,481. People moved to California's "Inland Empire," which includes Riverside, where a typical house is $200,000 cheaper than it is in L.A.

"You can't really call housing affordable in Riverside," Mr. Ting said. "It's expensive compared to Dallas and Atlanta. But it's all relative.



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