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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    The top 10 primaries of 2014

    The top 10 primaries of 2014



    One down, many more to go.

    From left, Reps. Paul Broun and P.J. Gingrey, Minister Derrick Grayson, Rep. Jack Kingston, Arthur Gardner, Karen Handel, and David Perdue stand at their podiums to deliver opening remarks during the Georgia Republican Party U.S. Senate Debate at the Columbia County Exhibition Center in Grovetown, Ga. on April 19. (Sara Caldwell/The Augusta Chronicle via AP)

    This week's primaries in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio marked the first in a steady stream of big decisions voters across the country will be making this spring and summer.

    In some races, the tea party and GOP establishment will square off — and Republicans could help or hurt themselves in the general election depending on who wins. In others, Democrats will race to the left and even embrace the health-care law that figures to be politically toxic in many other campaigns.


    Circle May 20 on your calendar. That will be a huge day for the Republican Party. In addition to a U.S. Senate primary in Georgia — one of the key states in the battle for the majority — the Senate's top Republican, Mitch McConnell, will be on the ballot in Kentucky.

    In Idaho's 2nd district, a major business vs. tea party battle will also be settled that day. Oh, and Democrats, there is something for you, too. The one-of-a-kind primary to decide who faces Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in Pennsylvania could go down to the wire.


    Below is our rundown of the top 10 primaries. As a reminder, these races stand out because of deep rivalries or because the outcome will say something larger about the Democratic or Republican parties.

    Others matter because the outcome could increase or decrease a party’s odds of winning in the general election.


    To the Line!


    10. Kansas Republicans Senate primary:
    The GOP establishment is pretty confident about this one right now. Some residency issues seemed to open the door to challenger Milton Wolf, and Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) isn't exactly raising money like he should be. But the GOP landed a pretty serious attack on Wolf early on, pointing to graphic X-rays that Wolf joked about on his Facebook page. We're still waiting for a poll to show Wolf with a real shot here. (Date: Aug. 5)


    9. Kentucky Republican Senate primary:
    It’s pretty much the same situation here, with the national GOP convinced that businessman Matt Bevin is basically sunk. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has spent plenty of money to make sure of that – as much as $10 million already. From here, the question is whether the primary will have wounded McConnell at all for the general election against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D). (Date: May 20)


    8. Louisiana open Senate primary:
    This is a nonpartisan primary that will take place on Election Day, so it’s a little different situation. It seems quite likely that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) will face a runoff; the real question is how close she is to 50 percent – the number she needs to hit either on Election Day or in a runoff — and how much the GOP can rally around one candidate before or after the November election. Rep. Bill Cassidy is the clear GOP establishment favorite. (Date: Nov. 4)


    7. Iowa Republican Senate primary:
    State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) appears ascendant in this race and has locked down both establishment (Mitt Romney, for example) and tea party support (Sarah Palin). The big question is whether she can compete with businessman Mark Jacobs and his self-funding. Indications are that she has upped her fundraising pace significantly in recent weeks. The winner gets Rep. Bruce Braley (D), who polls show with a slight lead. If Republicans can get a good nominee and put this in play, they'll significantly up their chances of winning back the Senate. (Date: June 3)


    6. Idaho's 2nd district Republican primary:
    Business vs. tea party. The Club for Growth vs. the Chamber of Commerce. Rep. Mike Simpson vs. attorney Bryan Smith. In the ongoing battle between competing wings of the Republican Party, this is a clear focal point. Smith's fundraising has not been great, and Simpson has Mitt Romney in his corner — an important endorsement in an area with a large Mormon population. This race is far from settled, but heading into the stretch run, Simpson doesn't appear to be in major trouble. (Date: May 20)


    5. Mississippi's Republican Senate primary:
    State Sen. Chris McDaniel has been hamstrung by widespread attention paid to controversial comments he made over the years as a talk-radio host. But he still has the Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund in his corner — which he will need, since Sen. Thad Cochran has a super PAC backing him. Of all senators facing primary challengers, Cochran still looks like he has the toughest fight on his hands. But everything is relative, and Cochran, like several of his colleagues, is looking in better shape than he was last year. (Date: June 3)


    4. Hawaii's Democratic Senate primary:
    The primary is not until August, but this race has been tense since day one. In March, President Obama endorsed Sen. Brian Schatz, an early backer of his 2008 White House campaign. The endorsement means a lot in Hawaii, the state where the president grew up and is very popular. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, the preferred choice of the late senator Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), is trying to unseat Schatz less than two years after he was appointed to replace Inouye. (Date: Aug. 9)


    3. Pennsylvania's Democratic gubernatorial primary:
    Rep. Allyson Schwartz has been emphasizing her vote for Obamacare, a tactic we don't see every day at a time when the law looks to be an electoral albatross for so many others. But in this race to the left, it could be the key for Schwartz, who is trying to catch businessman Tom Wolf. She has less than two weeks left, and Wolf built a huge lead. In the general election, Corbett is probably the most vulnerable governor in the country. (Date: May 20)


    2. Nebraska's Republican Senate primary:
    National tea party groups like the Club for Growth and leading conservative figures like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) have gone all in for Midland University President Ben Sasse. If he loses, it will be an embarrassment for them. In the final week, wealthy bank executive Sid Dinsdale has become a threat as establishment favorite Shane Osborn has faded. Suddenly, the tea party has directed its attacks at Dinsdale ahead of Tuesday's primary rather than Osborn. Sasse's final ad, notably, is all about his support within Nebraska. (Date: May 13)


    1. Georgia Republican Senate primary:
    The most crowded and arguably the most important GOP Senate primary of all, this one appears to finally be taking shape. Rep. Paul Broun (R), whom the GOP establishment feared most as its nominee, hasn't caught fire or raised much money. The frontrunners to make the runoff appear to be Rep. Jack Kingston and businessman David Perdue, with former secretary of state Karen Handel grabbing some key support but still underfunded. Rep. Phil Gingrey, meanwhile, is behind but has a bunch of money he can dump on this race in the final weeks. The big question will be how he uses it, and whether he targets anyone in particular with attack ads. Democrats contend this one's in play regardless of who wins. Republicans think it's off the table if anyone not named Broun or Gingrey wins. (Date: May 20. Likely runoff: Aug. 5)


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...aries-of-2014/
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    How a lot of money helped vault Pennsylvania primary candidate to top




    ALANA SEMUELS contact the reporter

    Tom Wolf, Democratic front-runner in Pennsylvania primary, jumped from 5% to 40% in polls after TV ad blitz
    4 Pennsylvania Democrats vie to run against Gov. Tom Corbett, seen as the most vulnerable governor in nation
    Candidate Tom Wolf donates $10 million of his own money to his race for Pennsylvania governor


    There are a host of primaries on Tuesday in states across the country, but for one that shows just how effective money can be in politics, look no further than Pennsylvania.

    Four Democrats are competing to run against Republican Gov.Tom Corbett, widely thought to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country this election year. Voters are unhappy with Corbett because of cuts to education funding, and because of the state’s moribund economy.


    If voters don't like how Corbett has handled the state, Democrats have an answer for how they would change things. Trouble is, most of the positions of the four Democratic candidates on the issues are the same. They all want more education spending, they all want a severance tax on the natural gas industry, they all want more environmental regulations on the industry.

    How to differentiate between them, then? The answer, of course, is money.


    Candidate Tom Wolf, a virtual unknown in the race, has given himself $10 million to spend on the race, in addition to raising $4.5 million more. He did an initial TV buy in late January and early February, airing 1,800 TV commercials in four markets. He was initially the only candidate on the air.

    “They were maybe the best introductory commercials of a candidate in modern Pennsylvania history,” said G.Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania. “They were very, very well done, and they shocked the political world because they were so effective.”


    Wolf's ads highlighted his personal biography: He has a PhD from MIT, served in the Peace Corps and ran his family's large business.


    Wolf’s polling numbers skyrocketed after the initial ads, as the chart above illustrates. Two surveys by Republican firm Harper Polling firm show the jump – a November 2013 poll had Wolf at 5%, putting him in fourth place among Democrats. After Wolf’s ads began to hit the airwaves, that equation changed completely. In February, Wolf was at 40%, running far above three other candidates.

    Little has changed since then, though the Democratic challengers have tried to differentiate themselves and bring down Wolf at the same time. Wolf has spent an estimated $1 million a week on television ads.


    “He built this huge lead and he’s maintained it despite repeated efforts to bring him down,” Madonna said.


    Wolf is up against state treasurer Rob McCord, who spent nearly $8 million on his campaign; U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who has spent $7.5 million of the $8.8 million she's raised; and former state environmental protection secretary Katie McGinty, who has spent about $500,000.


    Of course, money doesn’t always work.Linda McMahon, a Connecticut Republican, spent about $100 million of her own money in 2010 and 2012 trying to win a race for U.S. Senate. She was not elected either time, giving her a kinship with California's Republican Meg Whitman, who spent $144 million of her own money--and $33 million raised from others--in her unsuccessful bid for governor in 2010.

    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...519-story.html
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


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