Results 1 to 3 of 3
Like Tree1Likes

Thread: Nervous Democrats ask: Could Election Day disaster strike again?

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

  1. #1
    Senior Member Airbornesapper07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Posts
    65,401

    Nervous Democrats ask: Could Election Day disaster strike again?

    Nervous Democrats ask: Could Election Day disaster strike again?

    By Alex Roarty, McClatchy Washington Bureau
    7 hrs ago

    © Olivier Douliery/Abaca Press/TNS Supporters of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton react as exit poll results arrive during an election night rally on November 8, 2016, in New York.

    WASHINGTON — It was this week two years ago that Hillary Clinton's victory looked assured, when the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape of Donald Trump bragging about sexual assault appeared all but certain to end his campaign.

    Jesse Ferguson remembers it well. The deputy press secretary for Clinton's campaign also remembers what happened a month later.
    It's why this veteran Democratic operative can't shake the feeling that, as promising as the next election looks for his party, it might still all turn out wrong.
    "Election Day will either prove to me I have PTSD or show I've been living deja vu," Ferguson said. "I just don't know which yet."
    Ferguson is one of many Democrats who felt the sting of unexpected defeat in 2016 and are now closely — and nervously — watching the current election near its end, wondering if history will repeat itself. This year, instead of trying to win the presidency, Democrats are trying to gain 23 House seats and win a majority.
    The anxiety isn't universal, with many party leaders professing confidently and repeatedly that this year really is different.
    But even some of them acknowledge the similarities between the current and previous election: President Trump is unpopular and beset by scandal, Democrats hold leads in the polls, and some Republicans are openly pessimistic.
    FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 76.9 percent chance of winning the House one month before Election Day. Its odds for Clinton's victory two years ago was 71.4 percent.
    The abundance of optimism brings back queasy memories for Jesse Lehrich, who worked on the Clinton campaign and remembers watching the returns come in from the Javits Center in New York.
    "I was getting texts after the result was clear — including even from some political reporters and operatives — texting me, you know, 'Are you guys starting to get nervous?' or 'What's her most likely path?'" he said. "I was like, 'What do you mean, starting to get nervous? What path? They just called Wisconsin. We lost.'"
    "People were so slow to process that reality because they just hadn't considered the possibility that Donald Trump was going to be the next president," he continued.
    © Olivier Douliery/Abaca Press/TNS Supporters of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton react as exit poll results arrive during an election night rally on November 8, 2016, in New York.

    Lehrich said he sees similarities between 2016 and 2018. But he said he thought Democrats were cognizant of the parallels and determined not to let up a month before the election, as many voters might have two years ago.
    For the latest updates on the 2018 midterms, sign up for news alerts here. To support more elections coverage like this, click here for a digital-only subscription.
    Other Democratic leaders aren't so sure. Asked if he thought his party was overconfident, Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton responded flatly, "Yes."
    Democrats could win a lot of House seats, he said, or could still fall short of capturing a majority.
    "The point is that we've got to realize that this not just some unstoppable blue wave but rather a lot of tough races that will be hard-fought victories," Moulton said.
    If Democrats are universally nervous about anything after 2016, it's polling. The polls weren't actually as favorable to Clinton and the Democrats as some remember, something FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver and some other journalists pointed out at the time.
    But Clinton's decision not to campaign in a state she'd lose, Wisconsin, and the failure of pollsters everywhere to miss a wave of Trump supporters in red areas are mistakes Democrats are still grappling with today.
    "Clearly last cycle, polling was off," Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters last month. "There were a lot of predictions that were made last cycle that didn't come to fruition."
    Lujan emphasized in particular how pollsters missed the rural vote, calling it a "devastating mistake." He said the DCCC has taken deliberate steps since 2016 to get it right this time around, but underscored a congressional majority still required a tooth-and-nail fight.
    "So I'm confident with the team that's been assembled, but I'm definitely cognizant of the fact we need to understand these models and understand the data for what it is," he said.
    One Democratic pollster said the data he's seen makes plain that the party is favored to win a majority - but that it's still not a sure thing. He said even now it's unclear if the political environment will create an electoral tsunami, or merely a good year where Democrats might still fall short of a House majority.
    "We've all learned a lesson from 2016 that there are multiple possibilities and outcomes," said the pollster, granted anonymity to discuss polling data one month before the election. "And if you haven't learned that lesson, shame on you. That 20 percent outcome can happen. That 30 percent outcome can happen."
    This year, Democrats have history on their side: The incumbent president's party historically struggles during midterm elections. That wasn't the case in 2016, when Democrats were trying to win the presidency for three consecutive terms for the first time in their history since Franklin Delano Roosevelt (The GOP accomplished the feat only once in the same period, with Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.)
    Some Democratic leaders say the reality of Trump's presidency - unlike its hypothetical state in 2016 - changes the dynamic entirely.
    "Democratic energy is at nuclear levels," said Steve Israel, a former DCCC chairman. "Democrats would crawl over broken glass to vote in this election."
    Israel said he still has concerns about November (political operatives always have concerns about the upcoming election). But he waves away the notion that the party might fall short of a House majority.
    "Most Democrats and a heck of a lot of Republicans I speak to believe that Democrats will have the majority," he said. "The real question is, by how much?"
    Ferguson is, of course, of two minds: He thinks the push to repeal the Affordable Care Act and the day-to-day reality of Trump's presidency fundamentally changes how voters will see this election.
    But he's also gun-shy about what could change in the next month, after the multitude of surprises that occurred during the last month of the 2016 race, whether the "Access Hollywood" recording or then-FBI Director James Comey's announcement that the investigation into Clinton's emails was reopened.
    Many Republicans argue the 2018 election has already seen its October surprise, with the confirmation fight over Brett Kavanaugh finally motivating conservative voters to vote.
    "I don't know what the October surprises will be," Ferguson said. "But we make a mistake if we assume that what we're seeing today is what we'll see for the entire month. We lived through it two years ago."
    (Katie Glueck contributed to this report.)
    Visit the McClatchy Washington Bureau at www.mcclatchydc.com


    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...BOe3je?ocid=sf
    If you're gonna fight, fight like you're the third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark... and brother its starting to rain. Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    55,883
    "I was getting texts after the result was clear — including even from some political reporters and operatives — texting me, you know, 'Are you guys starting to get nervous?' or 'What's her most likely path?'" he said. "I was like, 'What do you mean, starting to get nervous? What path? They just called Wisconsin. We lost.'" -- Jesse Lehrich, Clinton Campaign
    LOL!!



    Americans, it's possible to defy history, it's within the grasp of the American People to turn the tide of the way it was, we have the power to make it the way it is, the way we want it to be, we can win these mid-terms, something that's only been done in the first term of new President, once in the last 100 years, and keep our beautiful Trump Train Rollin' Rollin' Rollin' for ourselves, our children, our businesses and future generations with a Republican Congress with enough Republicans to pass all the bills we want and need.

    Tell your friends, your relatives, your co-workers, please VOTE AND VOTE REPUBLICAN ON NOVEMBER 6, support our President, support his Agenda to fix our country, and make American great again, greater than we've ever been before!!

    LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL - VOTE REPUBLICAN ON NOVEMBER 6, 2018!!
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  3. #3
    Senior Member Airbornesapper07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Posts
    65,401
    😋 RED WAVE IS COMING SOON AND FAST!

    If you're gonna fight, fight like you're the third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark... and brother its starting to rain. Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

Similar Threads

  1. No, Election Fraud Is Not as Unlikely as a Lightning Strike
    By lorrie in forum General Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11-03-2016, 05:29 PM
  2. Adrian Wyllie is making Rick Scott Nervous this Election
    By kathyet2 in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-24-2014, 03:47 PM
  3. Nervous Democrats explore their healthcare options
    By AirborneSapper7 in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 01-19-2010, 05:07 PM
  4. GOP Worried, Democrats Nervous About 2010 Senate
    By AirborneSapper7 in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-07-2009, 09:16 PM
  5. New Book Warns 2008 Election Disaster Imminent
    By zeezil in forum General Discussion
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 02-23-2008, 01:21 AM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •