Auto sales up nearly 20% locally, statewide

Sales of big-ticket items seen as good omen for economy

By Dean Calbreath
Originally published April 25, 2011 at 12:01 p.m., updated April 25, 2011 at 1:48 p.m.

New vehicle sales in the first quarter rose by 19.7 percent in California and 19.2 percent in San Diego County, driven by pent-up demand that has been building throughout the Great Recession, according to a report released last week by the New Car Dealers Association of California.

Auto sales are often viewed as a yardstick for the retail market, signaling whether consumers are comfortable enough to commit themselves to large outlays of cash.

In San Diego County, drivers bought 13,959 new cars and 9,529 new light trucks in the first quarter, compared to 11,695 cars and 8.007 trucks in the same period of last year.

"Although the rate of increase is predicted to ease somewhat as the year progresses, the market’s upward track should be sustained for the foreseeable future," said a report prepared for the association by Auto Outlook, a Pennsylvania firm that tracks new car sales.

Auto Outlook predicts sales will rise by 13.6 percent in California this year, with the total exceeding 1.3 million units. That compares to 1.0 million at the depth of the recession in 2009, but is still far below the sales levels before the recession, when Californians regularly bought more than 2 million vehicles per year.

Auto Outlook said that even though pent-up demand is providing a boost to the market, it does not forecast a quick return to higher sales level because of shaky consumer confidence, high household debt, elevated fuel prices and the continuing impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

In the meantime, the slowdown in Japanese auto production caused by the earthquake has provided a slight boost for Detroit. The Big Three domestic car companies increased their market share in California by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, after a similar increase last year due to a recall at Toyota, but Japanese brands still dominate nearly half the marketplace.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011 ... statewide/