New Lisbon vote would be suicide for Cowen Public would puni

New Lisbon vote would be suicide for Cowen Public would punish party, says poll

Henry McDonald, Ireland editor
The Observer,
Sunday July 27 2008

Brian Cowen and his Fianna Fáil-led government will suffer a Gordon Brown-style electoral meltdown if they hold a second referendum on the EU's Lisbon reform treaty, a poll warns today.

More than half of those asked said they would be less likely to vote for Cowen and his party in an Irish general election if he decided to re-run the referendum, which resulted in the plans for Europe being decisively rejected by the Irish last month.

The news will come as a major blow to ministers. Senior Irish government sources have been hinting, both before and after French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Dublin last week, that a new referendum could be held in March next year. According to today's survey, which was carried out by the established polling organisation Red C poll, 71 per cent of voters are opposed to holding a second vote. Moreover, 62 per cent said they would vote 'no' in a second referendum compared to only 24 per cent who are in favour. Back in June, 38 per cent of the Irish electorate backed the treaty.

Neil O'Brien, director of Open Europe, which commissioned the research, said the results would give the 'no' side a massive lead in any fresh campaign on Lisbon. The EU reform programme was plunged into chaos last month after Ireland rejected the Lisbon blueprint on EU reform by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. The result caused panic among EU leaders because the treaty can only be implemented if it is approved by all 27 member states. Only the Irish have held a referendum.

Sarkozy, who is the current EU Council president, was forced last week to deny he was bullying Irish voters into holding a second vote.

The poll of 1,000 Irish voters was carried out between 21 and 23 July - shortly after Sarkozy's visit to the country last Monday. It found 17 per cent of those who voted 'yes' in the recent referendum would vote 'no' in a second referendum, while only six per cent of those who voted 'no' would now vote 'yes'. More significantly it revealed that those who did not vote last time would vote more than two-to-one against in a second referendum: 57 per cent would vote 'no' and 26 per cent would vote 'yes'.

It also reported that 67 per cent agreed with the statement that 'politicians in Europe do not respect Ireland's no vote'. O'Brien said the response to the referendum result from other EU heads of states has obviously appeared arrogant to some voters. 'By appearing to bully the voters, EU politicians are actually driving lots more people into the no camp,' he said. 'EU leaders who are trying to force Ireland to vote again are playing a very dangerous game, and it looks like Brian Cowen could be putting his political life on the line by calling a second vote.'

This week it was revealed that the Dail will be recalled early from its summer recess to establish an all-party body on the Lisbon Treaty. The Irish government hopes a parliamentary committee can plot a way forward following the voters' rejection of the deal in June. The Dail is expected to be recalled in early September to elect members to the new body.

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