The Nexus of the Real Estate Crash is Shifting to Commercial Properties

Housing-Market / US Housing
May 08, 2009 - 02:00 PM

By: Money_and_Markets

If you’ve been reading my stuff for the past few years, then you’ve been ahead of the real estate pack every step of the way.

I warned you well in advance that the housing market would implode … that the mortgage industry would collapse … and that virtually any stock exposed to building, construction, banking, or finance would suffer immense collateral damage.

More than three years ago, in fact, I published a special report called the “Great Real Estate Bust of 2006-2008″. http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/us-housi ... -boom-8400 It explained what the bust would look like, and named specific stocks that were toast — including, but not limited to, Beazer Homes (BZH), Countrywide Financial (CFC), New Century Financial (NEW), PMI Group (PMI), Bear Stearns (BSC), Lehman Brothers (LEH), and Washington Mutual (WM).

Today, you can’t even call up quotes on five of those companies because they’ve gone bust or been acquired in shotgun marriages. Other stocks named in that report … as well as in multiple columns in Safe Money Report and Money and Markets … are trading for mere pennies, nickels, and dimes.

Why do I bring this up? Because I think it shows I have some credibility when it comes to real estate — and because it’s time to signal another important shift in my thoughts on the housing market. Namely, that the nexus of the real estate downturn is shifting and that the residential market is poised to stabilize in the coming quarters.

My Forecast For the Next 12-to-18 Months: A Gradual Easing of the Housing Crisis

Look around and you’ll see evidence pointing to a change in the residential real estate environment. Specifically, home prices have fallen so far, so fast … and sellers have gotten so desperate … that sales volumes are beginning to pick up in select markets.

Aggressively priced foreclosures, short sales, and regular homes are now finding buyers, both first-timers and investors. The outsized price declines have helped restore some semblance of normalcy to several ratios (price-to-rent, affordability, price-to-income, etc.).

This is a huge shift from the situation a few years ago, when all of these indicators were ridiculously out of whack! You can find more details in my July 2007 white paper “How Federal Regulators, Lenders, and Wall Street Created America’s Housing Crisis — Nine Proposals for a Long-Term Recovery.â€