Thread: The New Pause lengthens: 100 Months with No Warming At All – Since 2014 – 8 years & 4

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Great Reset By Marc Morano – Chapter 12 Excerpt: ‘COVID Lockdowns Morph to Climate Lockdowns’



The New Pause lengthens: 100 Months with No Warming At All – Since 2014 – 8 years & 4 months…despite 14% of manmade CO2

Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilization, Says Top Scientist

German climate researcher Schellnhuber proposes limiting amount of CO2 to 3 tons a person per year & enabling private emissions trading

CCP Proves ‘Climate’ Fight Not Really About Climate


‘Classic Junk Science’ Biden admin seeks ban on gas stoves based on single meta-analysis co-authored by WEF partnered climate activist group seeking ‘carbon free buildings’WaPo claim: "Scientists say a growing body of research shows that gas stoves pose a threat to the planet and public health.”
Steve Milloy of JunkScience.com: The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations. Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.
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Climate Depot: "The meta-analysis the Biden admin wants to ban -- without a vote -- has a huge undeclared conflict of interest by conflict. The climate activist group 'carbon free buildings' RMI or Rocky Mountain Institute is listed as one of the lead authors on the new study."

No "conflict of interest" is not true. RMI's (Rocky Mountain Institute) of Boulder, Colorado Board of Trustees features former Obama Climate Envoy Todd Stern on its board of trustees. RMI's (Rocky Mountain Institute) of Boulder, Colorado Board of Trustees features former Obama Climate Envoy Todd Stern on its board of trustees.
RMI's website explains, "Todd Stern was 'a leading architect of the Obama administration’s international climate change strategy,' according to Politico. Stern was appointed to the position of US Special Envoy on Climate Change on January 26, 2009, by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He was the chief US negotiator of the successful Paris Agreement." RMI is also a World Economic Forum partner.
The RMI website details how the group has been "Calling out gas stoves" and notes that they are "contributing to global warming."
RMI's video details their climate activist agenda: "We have less than 10 years to act to avert the disastrous effects of climate change." RMI envisions a "carbon-free grid" and seeks "to take urgent and impactful action now."

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Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. rips gas stove fears as ‘loathing of modern society’: ‘If you really care about emissions & not politics, then focus on cooking with oils’ or using ‘candles & incense’
Professor Roger Pielke Jr.: "Cooking indoors = emissions. The type of stove matters to emissions rates If you really care about emissions and not politics, then focus on cooking with oils = emissions ~10x of gas stoves. Want to regulate something to reduce indoor emissions? Cooking oil! Olive, corn etc. And ~10x cooking oils? Candles and incense."
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Update: More Bans! NY Gov. Hochul seeks gas heating ban in new homes, buildings ‘because climate change remains the greatest threat to our planet’- Climate Depot's Marc Morano: "We have reached peak insantiy. Americans wake up every day to find some unexpected executive order or a bureaucratic edict that has once again bypassed democracy, taking away their freedoms or choices. NY Gov. Hochul is the latest example as she has just announced that she plans to ban gas heating in new homes and buildings construction to stop 'climate change' which she claims is the 'greatest threat to our planet.' Just a few days earlier, we found out that an unelected bureaucrat at the Consumer Product Safety Commission? has decided to ban gas stoves. More mandates with no vote of democracy.

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Sadly, the new ‘normal’ in science is negotiating a consensus, & then attacking anyone that disagrees’

Serially Wrong Paul Ehrlich Is Wrong, Again. We Are Not on The Brink of a 6th Mass Extinction Event

Top Ten Climate Fact Check, 2022 in Review

Live Science Misleads on Extreme Weather, Tipping Points, & Polar Bears, Among Other Topics

RIP Apollo VII astronaut Walt Cunningham – Hero of space & science – Slammed UN climate summit for perpetrating the ‘one of the biggest frauds in the field of science’



On January 3, 2023, America lost a hero and CFACT lost a friend. Colonel Walter Cunningham was 90. "Walt" is best known for flying in space as lunar module pilot on Apollo VII, the first manned space mission after a tragic fire on the ground killed the crew of Apollo I. Walt worked closely with CFACT and joined our delegations to COP 19, the UN climate conference in Warsaw, and COP 20 in Lima, Peru.
Flashback: Apollo Astronaut Cunningham Slams UN for perpetrating the ‘one of the biggest frauds in the field of science’
CNN: Last surviving Apollo 7 astronaut has died
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Marc Morano Statement: "The world has lost a great man. Walt was a hero of space, science, and life. I got the opportunity to travel globally with Walt to Europe and South America and be at his side at UN climate debates. Walt was also featured in Climate Hustle 1 & 2. Walt loved his country, loved science and could not sit quietly while the UN bastardized climate science for political power. My prayers go out to his family and friends."

Watch: Paul Ehrlich in 1970 urging the govt should use FCC to force negative depictions of large families & ‘throw you in jail if you have too many’ children

‘Is CBS really this stupid???’ Features failed doomsday preacher Paul Ehrlich making more dire predictions

Watch: Morano on OAN TV: Talks about Paul Ehrlich’s claim ‘If I’m always wrong, so is science’ claim – & the NYT seeking shorter people and racist science

Watch: Morano on Newsmax about California’s ban on big rigs & buses made before 2010 – ‘California is vandalizing not only the energy grid but our transportation as well’

Broadcast January 8, 2023 - Wake Up America - Newsmax TV


Morano: "This is literally the Great Reset in action in California. ... "This is California trying to dictate to the rest of the country. This is 10% of the commercial motor vehicles in the state of California. Keep in mind this is not democracy in action. This was passed in 2008 by a regulatory board and California's unelected bureaucrats. The same exact board -- California Air Resources Board -- that passed the gas car ban by 2035, the gas-powered car ban, they are intentionally creating more havoc and chaos in California. This is literally the Great Reset in action in California. We have inflation, supply chains, and what better way to ramp it up than by getting 10% of the commercial trucks off the roads, creating more inflation, and higher price hikes, hurting the poor and middle class even harder."

Can Republican Power in the House Make a Difference on Energy? Morano’s advice to GOP: “Relabel solar & wind as: Not green. Not clean. & as empowering China’Epoch Times: “The incoming House GOP needs to lay out a vibrant, pro-energy, America-first energy policy largely modeled after former President Trump’s energy policies,” said Morano, another veteran of Congressional staff roles...“Even though their proposals will be DOA [dead on arrival] in a Democrat Senate, the GOP needs to lay out its vision and policy priorities for the next presidential cycle in 2024,” said Marc Morano, the proprietor of the website Climate Depot, in a Dec. 21 email interview with The Epoch Times. ...
Morano, of Climate Depot, told The Epoch Times that McConnell—and especially McCarthy—fall short “when it comes to reframing the climate narrative.” “The GOP needs to lead the way in labeling solar and wind as: 'Not green. Not clean. And they serve as China’s empowerment policy for the West,'” he said. ... Morano, of Climate Depot, had a creative suggestion. “Just like we name hurricanes, energy blackouts should be named—for anti-energy policies, politicians, and ideas that encourage and enable blackouts,” he said.

Watch: Morano on The First TV talks Paul Ehrlich’s lifetime of scientific failure

Watch: Morano on Newsmax with Steve Milloy talk how climate issue being used as a ploy for power

Watch: Morano on Tucker Carlson talking the ‘intended consequences’ of skyrocketing electricity prices & proposes naming blackouts after politicians pushing ‘green’ energy



Fox News Channel - Tucker Carlson Tonight - Broadcast January 4, 2023
Morano: "These are the intended consequences of these policies...We ought to start naming energy blackouts after the politicians' who push these green policies."
"The United States has had electrical grids for over 100 years -- over a century, we know how to provide power. There is no excuse for having energy shortages, blackouts, and high skyrocketing prices. The only excuse is politics, and a net zero Green New Deal climate agenda has crept into our policies. You have solar and wind being subsidized, and there's no penalty for their unreliability, their lack of battery storage, or the lack of energy they produce. They're treated equally, which then forces grids to incorporate them -- solar, and wind mandates -- into the grid, and then you end up with either shortages or, consequently, skyrocketing prices. We ought to start naming energy blackouts after the politicians' who push these green policies."

New York Times: ‘There Has Never Been a Better Time to Be Short’ – ‘Mate with shorter people’ for ‘a greener planet’ & to save ‘the planet by shrinking the needs of subsequent generations’
NY Times Guest Essay By Mara Altman: "Short people don’t just save resources, but as resources become scarcer because of the earth’s growing population and global warming, they may also be best suited for long-term survival (and not just because more of us will be able to jam into spaceships when we are forced off this planet we wrecked)."
"When you mate with shorter people, you’re potentially saving the planet by shrinking the needs of subsequent generations. Lowering the height minimum for prospective partners on your dating profile is a step toward a greener planet."
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Flashback: Hollywood film promotes shrinking humans to fight climate change – Echoes other calls to reduce size of people
This sounds eerily similar to other calls to reduce the size of people.
Flashback: NYU Professor: To Stop Climate Change, We Must Genetically Engineer Humans – Make Shorter, Induce Allergies to Meat & Medicate to Create ‘Empathy’


Morano: ’60 Minutes could not have found a more thoroughly discredited doomsday preacher than Paul Ehrlich’
WATCH: ‘60 Minutes’ Gives Airtime to ‘Population Bomb’ Fanatic to Prophesy Mass Extinction

Morano puts eco-terrorists suspected of vandalizing power stations into perspective: ‘The real terrorism to the grid is the Green New Deal proposals & the Inflation Reduction Act’Eco-Terrorists suspected of vandalizing power stations, thousands without power
Morano on Joe Piscopo Show: But here's the here's the big -- the bigger picture. Yeah, this is kind of like the guy holding up at gunpoint and taking your wallet on the street. But the real terrorism to the grid isn't coming from the people attacking this grid. It's coming from people like [former California Governor] Arnold Schwarzenegger, who 15 years ago signed the 'historic' California climate legislation, which led to California facing blackouts and the highest electricity prices in the country.
The real terrorists to our grid are the Green New Deal proposals and the Inflation Reduction Act, and solar and wind mandates. There is no reason why any modern grid should have energy shortages. The only reason they have shortages is because of the green agenda that's infiltrated itself into our energy policy due to due to politics based on wacky ideological science. So we can be mad at these activists for actually torching and destroying the grid or going after SUVs. But the real culprit is green energy policies.

Climate change affecting Christmas tree farms across Canada, expert says – ‘Experienced prolonged drought & extreme heat over the last two summers’Flashback: Greens Stump for a Treeless Christmas – Recommend ‘a storm-felled branch’ instead

Great News! ‘Climate misinformation’ spreads on Musk’s Twitter – Twitter boosts ‘accounts of serial climate misinformers’ including ‘Morano, who runs a climate denial blog’Politico's E&E: Since Musk’s purchase of Twitter two months ago, some prominent climate deniers have returned to the platform after being banned for pushing misinformation about the Covid-19 pandemic. There also are signs that scientists have left Twitter after their posts depicting global warming research were swarmed by critics. ...
Marc Morano, who runs a blog that routinely attacks climate science, said that since Musk bought Twitter the appearance of his name in climate search results “appear to be juiced by the new algorithms.” “My Twitter account and many others opposing the ‘consensus’ climate view have all increased visibility dramatically since Musk took over Twitter,” he said in an interview. “Whatever Musk is altering, I hope he keeps it up.” Indeed, the number of tweets rejecting climate science have never been higher than in 2022, according to research by the University of London conducted on behalf of The Times newspaper. There have been more than 850,000 climate denial tweets or retweets so far this year. There were 650,000 such messages in 2021 and 220,000 in 2020, the analysis found. ...
Twitter appears to now boost the accounts of serial climate misinformers, including Steve Milloy, a former Trump EPA transition official; Patrick Moore, former head of the CO2 Coalition; and Morano, who runs a climate denial blog. In recent Twitter searches, their accounts appeared in top results with climate scientists, media outlets and NOAA.

Sen Jim Inhofe’s legacy: A vast alumni network on climate, energy


Marc Morano, another former Inhofe staffer, has dedicated his career to denying climate change as founder and executive director of Climate Depot. Morano, the Climate Depot executive director, said that Inhofe “helped me immensely to understand how to oppose bad ideas in Washington, and he aided me in launching my climate opposition career,” said Morano.
“He attracted high-level talented staff, and the proof of that is how his former staff members turned into a ‘Who’s Who’ of those running official Washington’s environmental policies many years later.”

Cli-Fi: The Net Zero Sub-Genre

UN Biodiversity Summit COP15 Agreement: Redistribute Billions From Rich To Poor Nations To Achieve ‘Conserve’ 30% of Land & Water

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. rips gas stove fears as ‘loathing of modern society’: ‘If you really care about emissions & not politics, then focus on cooking with oils’ or using ‘candles & incense’Professor Roger Pielke Jr.: "Cooking indoors = emissions. The type of stove matters to emissions rates If you really care about emissions and not politics, then focus on cooking with oils = emissions ~10x of gas stoves. Want to regulate something to reduce indoor emissions? Cooking oil! Olive, corn etc. And ~10x cooking oils? Candles and incense."

"So my current view is that the brief excitement about gas stoves is part of the cultural movement against fossil fuels & is not in fact about indoor air pollution. More generally, there is a phenomenon at work here I can’t quite articulate. Some combination of loathing of modern society, anti-humanity & quasi-religiosity. Fossil fuels make modern life possible. Yes, they have downsides," Pielke Jr. wrote.
WaPo claim: "Scientists say a growing body of research shows that gas stoves pose a threat to the planet.” Pielke Jr. mocks: "And here I always thought it’d be an asteroid or something."

Watch: CNN’s climate reporter Bill Weir: ‘The science is showing us having a gas stove, in a small apartment especially with bad ventilation, is like having a car idling there’CNN’s climate correspondent Bill Weir: "The science is showing us having a gas stove, in a small apartment especially with bad ventilation, is like having a car idling there. If you have young kids, it can affect cognitive abilities, as well as asthma."

Ellen DeGeneres on heavy rain in Calif: ‘We need to be nicer to Mother Nature because Mother Nature is not happy with us.’

More Bans! NY Gov. Hochul seeks gas heating ban in new homes & buildings ‘because climate change remains the greatest threat to our planet’New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, during her state of the state address Monday, announced plans to ban gas heating on the construction of new buildings over the next several years. ... "I’m proposing a plan to end the sale of new fossil powered heating equipment by 2030 by calling for construction of – all new construction needs to be zero emission – starting in 2025 for small buildings and 2028 for large buildings," Hochul said. "And we’re taking these steps now because climate change remains the greatest threat to our planet but also to our children and our grandchildren." ..
The zero-emission new construction and the phase out of the sale of new fossil fuel heating equipment are part of the governor’s ambitious new package of building decarbonization initiatives. ... Hochul’s proposal will create the Energy Affordability Guarantee to ensure participating New Yorkers never pay more than 6% of their incomes on electricity. She announced $200 million in relief for utility bills for up to 800,000 New York households earning under $75,000 a year that are not currently eligible for the state’s utility discount program.
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Climate Depot's Marc Morano: "We have reached peak insantiy. Americans wake up every day to find some unexpected executive order or a bureaucratic edict that has once again bypassed democracy, taking away their freedoms or choices. NY Gov. Hochul is the latest example as she has just announced that she plans to ban gas heating in new homes and building construction to stop 'climate change' which she claims is the 'greatest threat to our planet.' Just a few days earlier, we found out that an unelected bureaucrat at the Consumer Product Safety Commission decided to ban gas stoves. More mandates with no vote of democracy. See: Biden admin seeks ban on gas stoves based on single meta-analysis co-authored by climate activist group seeking ‘carbon free buildings’
Just like gas-powered car bans, restrictions on meat eating, and restrictions on high-yield agriculture to meet Net Zero goals, the climate agenda is following the COVID template by mandating consequential decisions on our lives without the consent of the governed. No one voted for gas car bans. No one voted for meat restrictions. No one voted for lockdowns or mask mandates or vax mandates Our ruling class's new message to the public -- who they view derisively as the masses -- is simple: 'We don't need no stinkin legislating.
All of these climate-inspired bans are nothing more than climate virtue signaling. All of these government gas bans -- which no one voted for -- will do nothing but increase energy costs, especially for the poorest in the U.S. Natural gas has been the reason the USA has led the world in reducing CO2 emissions. New Yorkers will suffer with more government mandates, and the climate (& global CO2 emissions) will not be impacted one ounce.
Gov. Hochul can shore up her political power base by forcing more low-income residents onto government assistance with her proposed "Energy Affordability Guarantee" to ensure more and more voters are dependent on her government's benevolence as she ratchets up energy costs. Anyone can pretty much try to justify government action if they somehow claim that climate change is ‘greatest threat to our planet’ and their bans will save us. Humans inhale oxygen and exhale CO2. Is human breath next to be banned?!"

Analysis: No, new study does not link gas stoves with asthma in children – ‘Classic Junk Science’Steve Milloy of JunkScience.com: "It’s not actual research. It is a meta-analysis of previously published (and ignored) studies. The authors did a literature search for previous epidemiologic studies on gas stoves and asthma in kids and then just mixed those results together. This is a bogus technique for a number of reasons including publications bias in the component studies — i.e., studies with null results aren’t published.
The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations.
Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.

Biden Admin Considers Banning Gas Stoves over Health Concerns – Used in about 40% of homes in the U.S.

Podesta-linked energy executive positioned to benefit from Biden’s latest climate agendaBlocPower could experience major boost from Biden electrification efforts

Bloomberg Green Gives Voice to Climate Terrorist Andreas Malm

SEC Fakes Approval For New Climate Regulations From Activists, Foreign Investors While Ignoring American Companies’ Mass OppositionThe SEC is relying on foreign investors to present an illusion of broad support for the agency’s proposed climate disclosure rules.

Who will save the whales — From Offshore Wind!? New NOAA map shows North Atlantic Right Whales in very same areas targeted for offshore wind development

Mysterious eco group is funding local climate journalism: ‘Advocacy dressed up as news reporting’Environmental fund targeted newspapers in swing districts, aimed to raise 'public mandate for climate action'

The Public Transit Debacle: Billions More Dollars To Fund Fewer & Fewer Riders

Monckton rips UK’s ‘extraordinary failure to understand even the most elementary arithmetic’ as it is ‘flinging industry after industry into bankruptcy…enriching…China, India & Russia by its climate policies’

Wash Post: ‘Climate change puts more women at risk for domestic violence’


WaPo: "From Kenya to India and the Philippines, more frequent and intense extreme weather events have led to escalating threats against women and girls" - For these and many other women around the world, the threat of violence could become more common as climate change makes extreme weather events more intense and frequent. ... A 2021 study of extreme weather events in Kenya by researchers at St. Catherine University in Minnesota found the economic stresses caused by flooding and drought or extreme heat exacerbated violence against women in their homes. The research, which used satellite and national health survey data, showed that domestic violence rose by 60 percent in areas that experienced extreme weather. That analysis, and 40 others published this year as part of a global review in the journal The Lancet, found a rise in gender-based violence during or after extreme weather events. ...
“Heat waves, floods, climate-induced disasters increase sexual harassment, mental and physical abuse, femicide, reduce economic and educational opportunity and increase the risk of trafficking due to forced migration,” said McGovern, who added that the data remains limited on some fronts, including on psychological and emotional violence and attacks against minority groups. ... ‘The violence peaks during the floods’ ... Scientists emphasize that extreme weather events do not cause domestic or gender-based violence, but instead exacerbate existing pressures or make it easier for perpetrators to carry out such violence.
Flashback 2005: Men Warm Globe, Women Feel the Heat, Group Claims – The solution?! ‘Climate gender justice’
Flashback; Aussie ‘Ambassador for Women’ claims ‘climate change’ causes rape! ‘Exacerbates the risks of sexual & gender-based violence’
Flashback: STUDY: ‘Toxic Masculinity’ May Be The Reason For ‘Climate Change’ – Research delves into ‘Green-Feminine Stereotype’ & ‘Gender incongruence’
Flashback: ‘The Sexism of Climate Change’: ‘Women tend to bear the brunt of climate change’ – But ‘few women make decisions about climate change’

Flashback: Watch: ‘Climate change is going to affect your sex life’ – ‘Penises will be smaller’ – ‘Most men will be infertile by 2045’ – ‘Our sex drives drop when it’s hot’

Flashback: Identity politics invades the climate change debate

Watch: Dairy farmer issues warning about US food supply


Climate Depot | A project of CFACT

Someone needs to tell the Global Warming Nut Cases

The New Pause lengthens: 100 Months with No Warming At All

2 weeks ago
Guest Blogger
397 Comments

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The cold weather on both sides of the Atlantic last month seems to have had its effect on temperature, which fell sharply compared with November, lengthening the New Pause to 8 years 4 months, as measured by the satellites designed, built and operated by Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville:

The graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the monthly global mean lower-troposphere anomalies. The least-squares method was recommended by Professor Jones of the University of East Anglia as a reasonable method of showing the trend on stochastic temperature data.
Recall that the Pause graph does not constitute a prediction: it simply reports the longest period, working back from the present, during which the temperature trend is not positive.
As always, here is the full 45-year UAH dataset from December 1978 to December 2022, showing a far from dramatic global warming trend equivalent to just 0.134 C/decade:

One of the virtues of the long Pauses that have characterized the global-temperature anomaly record even in recent decades is that they provide a simple and instantly comprehensible demonstration that the global-warming rate is proving to be less than half the original midrange prediction in IPCC (1990), which presented four emissions scenarios, of which the business-as-usual scenario A has proven closest to reality. For instance, Scenario B was based on the assumption that emissions would remain constant at the 1990 annual level until 2025. That didn’t happen. Emissions have risen by enough to increase the anthropogenic forcing by more than 1 W m–2 since 1990.
Though emissions have thus proven close to scenario A, that scenario’s 0.3 K/decade midrange medium-term prediction was more than twice outturn: observed warming since 1990 has been only 0.13 K/decade. Since scenario A predicted 3 K ECS, the corrected ECS based on outturn since 1990 is thus just 1.3 K: a beautifully simple argument.
A similar result is obtainable by another simple method: energy-budget analysis. In a recent column I demonstrated that analysis, prompting some commenters to ask for an explanation of the energy-budget equation. So here goes.

The energy-budget equation says that equilibrium doubled-CO2-equivalent sensitivity (ECS), the standard metric, is the product of the anthropogenic fraction M of observed industrial-era warming ΔTobs and the ratio of the doubled-CO2 forcing ΔQ1 to the difference between observed industrial-era forcing ΔQobs and the satellite-observed radiative imbalance ΔNobs.
At a thermal equilibrium (such as the period from 1850-1930 when the trend in global mean surface temperature was zero) the solar radiative energy absorbed in the Earth’s atmosphere and the thermal infrared radiation emitted from Earth to space are about equal.
The positive energy imbalance ΔNobs that has since been measured, however, indicates that the Earth-atmosphere system is gaining energy, which is why it is warming.
The denominator ΔQobs – ΔNobs in the equation is the component in period forcing ΔQobs realized to date in period observed warming ΔTobs. The ratio of doubled-CO2 forcing to that realized component in period forcing converts the anthropogenic fraction of ΔTobs to ECS.
In the equation, if one increases the estimate of any of the four terms shown in red one increases ECS. If, however, one increases the estimate of observed period forcing ΔQobs, shown in green, one reduces ECS.
In short, the energy-budget equation is an excellent way to see what is going on under the hood. One can watch as the usual suspects wrench and torture the data so as to shore up the high-ECS narrative on which the tottering, shoddy edifice of international wreck-the-hated-West policy is unsoundly founded.
Take the anthropogenic fraction Mof industrial-era warming.One may deduce from Table 2 of Wu et al. (2019), giving anthropogenic and natural components in warming over eight periods covering 114 years to 2013 that about 74% of warming to date was anthropogenic. Yet climatology tends to push Mup to 100%, and extremists will try to maintain that Mis about 110%- i.e., the Earth would be cooling were it not for our influence on the climate.
Observed industrial-era temperature ΔTobs is also being pushed upward. HadCRUT4 said warming to early 2022 was 0.93 K – call that 0.95 K to date. But HadCRUT5 pushes that up to about 1.05 K, and IPCC (2021) jumps it up startlingly to 1.27 K.
It is the same sad story with the doubled-CO2 forcing ΔQ1. As far back as the 1980s, we were told that the uncertainty in ΔQ1 was ±10%. However, though the CMIP5 models (Andrews 2012) gave ΔQ1 as a mean 3.45 W m–2, and CMIP6 gave 3.52 W m–2 (Zelinka et al. 2020), IPCC (2021) hikes it by 14% to 3.93 W m–2.
Likewise, the official narrative has for decades tried to minimize the value of observed industrial-era forcing ΔQobs so as to maximize ECS. As Professor Lindzen has long pointed out, a number of dodges are used, not the least of which is the notion that our particulate emissions had caused a large negative aerosol forcing, which the Professor bluntly describes as a “fudge-factor”. The actual aerosol forcing is likely to be vanishingly different from zero. NOAA shows 3.2 W m–2 forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emission alone, before allowing for ozone forcing of another 0.4 W m–2. However, IPCC (2021), afer deploying the aerosol fudge-factor, gives just 2.8 W m–2 all in.
Hitherto, though, the net radiative imbalace ΔNobs had been left alone. It was generally given as around 0.79 W m–2. However, the increasingly desperate revisionists have been at that one, too, suggesting last year that ΔNobs is more like 1.1 W m–2.
Sure enough, if one plugs all these altered but allegedly “midrange” estimates into the energy-budget equation ECS comes out at 3.2 K, in line with the long-running official narrative. Now you know how the trick is done: change all five variables so as to maximize midrange ECS and thereby purport to justify the otherwise obviously excessive official figure.
Taking the more reasonable and more mainstream values shown in my earlier piece on the energy-budget method gives 1.3 K midrange ECS, in line with the observationally-derived 1.3 K described earlier herein.
Another virtue of the energy-budget method is that it requires absolutely no knowledge of the amplitudes of temperature feedbacks. Which is just as well, because IPCC’s current estimate that ECS is between 2 K and 5 K implies a total absolute feedback strength of between 0.22 and 0.27 W m–2 K–1. The breadth of that interval, just 0.05 W m–2 K–1, is so narrow that any attempt to derive ECS by feedback analysis, whether directly or via diagnosis of feedback strengths from models’ outputs, is, statistically speaking, no better than guesswork. The uncertainties in feedback strength are far too great to give any credence to any prediction from any general-circulation model, since the feedbacks diagnosed from those models exceed the absolute feedback strength by an order of magnitude.
How long will the current Pause last? The UN, getting desperate now that this second Pause is beginning to look rather serious, is saying – probably rightly – that the next el Niño will bring the Pause to an end, just as the last big one ended the previous 19-year Pause. But the fact of these frequent and prolonged Pauses provides a striking visual demonstration of the fact that the world is simply not warming at anything like the originally-predicted 0.3 K/decade.
The profiteers of doom, of course, are presenting the Pause in a quite different light. They say that the eight years of the current Pause showed the warmest temperatures on record. Except that it was a whole lot warmer in the medieval, Roman, Minoan and Egyptian Old Kingdom warm periods, which somehow never get mentioned as part of the record.
Some commenters here have speculated that the Sun can be expected to go through 60 quiet years, leading gradually to global cooling. However, it is not yet clear that reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity can be made. A striking example of the difficulties is the current sunspot record:

The predicted sunspot number is the red curve. Actual data is the black spline curve, with the six-month running mean in blue. The departure from the prediction – on the high side – is worth keeping an eye on. It may be that the Sun’s quiet period is already over. Who can say?
What we can say is this. Even if the whole of the West actually attained net zero emissions by 2050, the world would be just one-seventeenth of a degree cooler than if the current and continuing uptrend in global emissions were to continue. And each $1 billion we spend on destroying the Western economies would prevent between one four-millionth and one thirty-millionth of a degree of future warming. And we can’t even achieve that much, because the necessary techno-metals to attain net zero are just not available.

The New Pause lengthens: 100 Months with No Warming At All - Watts Up With That?