Texas grew by more than 1,000 people per day again this year — and half were babies
Texas grew by more than 1,000 people per day again this year — and half were babies
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Written by
Jill Cowan, Economy Writer
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More than 1,000 people a day became Texans over the past year, U.S. Census Bureau data released on Wednesday shows.
And once again, Texas’ population grew by the largest number of any state in the country, as it has for every year this decade.
But beyond those top-line numbers lurk signs that Texas’ dominance as a land of economic opportunity could be waning — if ever so slightly, said state demographer Lloyd Potter.
“In terms of growth this decade,” he said, “this is the lowest growth we’ve experienced so far.”
From July 1, 2016, to July 1 of this year, the Lone Star State grew by 399,734 new residents, pushing Texas past the 28 million mark. That’s down from 432,957 over the previous year, 2015 to 2016, and 490,036 the year before that.
A key factor in the slowing, Potter said, is Texas’ domestic migration (the net number of people moving here from other states), which has lost some steam in the past couple of years.
That, he said, could indicate that Texas is less of a magnet than it once was for job-seekers on the move. “It’ll be interesting to see if this is an anomaly or the beginning of a trend,” Potter said.
Of course, Texas wasn’t exactly a slouch over the past year when it came to attracting newcomers from out of state: It was second only to Florida by that measure.
California, which added 240,177 new residents over the year, actually lost 138,195 people to other states, as costs of living on the nation’s coasts force all but the highest-paid workers out of cities.
And Texas officials have been more than happy to welcome Californians into the fold — especially if they follow high-profile corporate moves, largely to Texas’ fast-developing suburbs.
Still, Florida’s number of domestic migrants was more than twice Texas’ over the past year — 160,854 and 79,163, respectively.
“Florida has been steadily picking up over the decade,” he said.
Potter said that might sound like Florida is gaining on Texas’ business momentum — and that’s probably part of it. But Florida’s growth also reflects national demographic trends.
As a wave of baby boomers ages, migration within the U.S. overall has slowed. Most people who move do so when they’re changing jobs or trying to start a family.
One big exception? Retirement. Hence, Florida’s population boom.
Meanwhile, Texas’ population is, relatively speaking, pretty young — largely because the state has continued to be one of the top landing states for immigrants, who tend to be younger and to have more kids.
And a younger population means Texas’ population is proportionally more driven by natural increase, i.e. babies. Lots of babies.
Over the past year, roughly 52 percent of the Lone Star State’s population increase can be attributed to the fact that 209,690 more babies were born in Texas than people who died here.
As a result, Potter said, Texas is likely to have another 15 years or so in its current position atop the growth rankings — until the state’s younger residents start aging out of their fertile years and more of Texas’ baby boomers start dying.
So what’s the big deal? Texas keeps growing, it’s more traffic, so what?
Demographers say population changes are useful both as indicators of economic conditions and as factors in shaping the economy.
That’s why, at least in theory, Texas officials keep chasing jobs: To give people jobs in growing, vibrant communities, which in turn have to be attractive enough to bring in more people to do more work to keep the economy growing.
The alternative, economists say, is not great.
States without attractive economies have been shrinking, their communities withering, which can, in turn, scare off more investment.
Illinois saw the biggest population decrease for a second year — much of that driven by out-migration to other states.
The census data shows that Western states with lower costs of living are reeling in migrants from other states.
Idaho was the fastest-growing state in the country over the year, followed by Nevada and Utah.
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