Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

  1. #1
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    PARADISE (San Diego)
    Posts
    99,040

    Throwing In The Tea Towel: Government Shutdown Averted?

    Throwing In The Tea Towel: Government Shutdown Averted?

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2011 17:53 -0400

    A late afternoon update from Stone McCarthy's Nancy Vanden Houten provides some much needed clarity on the topic that will be next week's number one topic (absent another colored swan joining the clusterflock): the threat of a government shutdown. It appears that Obama's warning that it would be the "height of irresponsibility" to shut down the government over a spending battle may have pushed republicans to come to an compromise. From SMR: "Increasingly, it looks as though Congress will be able to pass legislation funding the government for the rest of fiscal 2011, which is now half over and ends on September 30." And naturally this is merely one more of those strawmen whose inevitable resolution will be seen as an upside catalyst even if the probability of a downside outcome is impossible: after all the US government can not afford a shutdown period. So the only natural outcome will serve as the latest piece of news to get the momentum algos ramping the market into overdrive even though there is nothing notably catalytic about this development.

    From Stone McCarthy:
    Despite pronouncements by Congressional leaders to the contrary, it appears as though the key parties involved have reached a tentative compromise on a deal to cut $33 billion in discretionary budget authority for fiscal 2011. That $33 billion would include the relatively painless $10 billion of cuts that were already passed as part of the last two continuing resolutions.

    A final deal is by no means certain. The details of a compromise still have to be fleshed out. We've seen reports that Congressional staffers will be working through the weekend to iron out the specifics. Also, it's still up in the air whether a final bill will include any of the so-called policy riders that were part of HR1, the bill that cleared the House in February and that would reduce fiscal 2011 budget authority by more than $60 billion. Senate Democrats and White House officials involved in the budget negotiations have indicated they might be able to accept some "non-controversial" policy riders. Frankly, we've only seen Democrats identify those policy riders that would be off the table, including those that would eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood, NPR, and implementation of the 2010 health care law. We've seen conflicting reports about riders that would limit some of the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency. If Democrats refuse to accept any policy riders, it might give GOP leaders some leverage to push for spending cuts that are slightly larger than $33 billion.

    The more conservative members of the Republican Party, including many in the freshman class, won't be happy with a deal that cuts 2011 spending by $33 billion. So the House Leadership will need a sizable number of the House's 192 Democrats to support a compromise. It appears, though, that House Speaker Boehner has decided that supporting a compromise that can pass the Senate is preferable to siding with the more conservative members of his party and provoking a government shutdown.

    Will this create a lasting rupture within the GOP? At this point, we don't think so, but it might make it trickier for Speaker Boehner to get support for compromises on some of the bigger budget battles that lie ahead.

    The positive outcome of this issue then opens the door to the next strawman catalyst: the proposed increase of the US debt ceiling, which also has no chance of not passing (the alternative is a default of the US), yet a favorable resolution will once again be spun as a market moving event adding another 10-20 points to the S&P.

    We still project that Treasury will hit the debt limit on May 16, if it doesn't resort to the tools at its disposal to create room under the debt ceiling. Of course, we expect Treasury will use all means available to avoid breaching the debt limit. We still expect that Treasury will have exhausted those tools and hit the debt limit on June 30. The forecast is subject to more than the usual amount of uncertainty, as we head into the all-important April 15 tax date (April 18 this year.) We expect Treasury to provide an update to its own forecast for hitting the debt ceiling sometime next week.

    As we indicated earlier, on a purely technical basis, the US total debt already surpassed the ceiling, although loopholes such as incremental maturities of debt, bill redemptions, the "debt subject to ceiling" definition and other semantics will likely push D-Day until mid-April, ultimately depending on the dynamics of tax refunds and revenues over the next two weeks.

    That said, look for both of these events to be consistently spun as key positive outcomes, even though the chance of these things actually not transpiring in a non-favorable light is non-existent.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/throwi ... wn-averted
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  2. #2
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    PARADISE (San Diego)
    Posts
    99,040
    RELATED

    Boehner says Democratic and Republican reached a deal

    http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-234101.html
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  3. #3
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    PARADISE (San Diego)
    Posts
    99,040
    Budget Deal Reached to Avert Shutdown; Vote Set Next Week After 6-Day ‘Bridge’

    By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
    Published: April 8, 2011

    WASHINGTON — The nation's lawmakers reached a last-minute budget deal Friday night, averting a government shutdown just minutes before crossing a deadline that would have shuttered federal facilities and forced hundreds of thousands of workers to be furloughed without pay, House Speaker John A. Boehner said.

    In a brief statement to reporters, Mr. Boehner said he was pleased that Republicans and Democrats have "come to an agreement that will in fact cut spending and keep our government open."

    He added: "This has been a lot of discussion and a long fight. We fought to keep government spending down."

    A Democratic source said negotiators had agreed to spending cuts totaling $38.5 billion and had resolved differences in funding for groups like Planned Parenthood that had been holding up a deal for days.

    Mr. Boehner said the two sides had agreed to a six-day "bridge" extension of the government's spending authority in order to turn the agreement's framework into legislation that will fund federal operations through the end of the 2011 fiscal year in September. He said the final vote on the package would take place in the middle of next week.

    The agreement was reached after a flurry of negotiations throughout Friday evening that led to a nail-biting final hours while the shutdown clocked ticked down perilously close to the midnight deadline. It was reached in principle Friday evening and Mr. Reid and Mr. Boehner then had to sell the agreement to their members.

    Mr. Boehner spent almost an hour meeting with his caucus, getting their input and approval. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, was expected to speak later Friday evening. And White House officials said Mr. Obama would also make remarks from the White House about the last-minute budget deal.

    The developments came after Republicans and Democrats spent the day blaming one another for what would be the first lapse in government services brought on by Congress in 15 years. Senior Congressional and White House aides exchanged offers on remaining sticking points.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/09/us/po ... .html?_r=1
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •