Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling

Unemployment Rate Surges To Highest Since 2011 - Gallup Polling

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 09:16 -0400

With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjustedunemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...208.6%25_0.jpg

Source: Gallup

Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, ages 18 and older, who are unemployed. "Unemployed" respondents are those who are not employed, even for one hour a week, but are available and looking for work. Unemployment is calculated as a percent of the workforce. Monthly results reflect an average of the calendar month, based on telephone interviews with approximately 30,000 adults. Gallup adjusts its unemployment rate using the seasonal adjustment the BLS used in the same month in the prior year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...s-highest-2011

Biggest 2-Week Drop In Initial Claims In 3 Months But Unit Labor Costs Stagnate

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 08:45 -0400

The last 2 weeks have seen the biggest drop in initial jobless claims in 3 months as today's print is within a smidge of six year lows. Continuing claims also fell close to 5.5 year lows. All good healthy "Taper-On" news ahead of the all-important NFP. However, the only fly in the ointment as far as celebrating this 'renaissance' remains productivity gains and the ongoing slump in unit labor costs (which missed expectations of an easy-money earnings-growth generated +0.8% gain and came in at a dismal 0.0%). Simply put, all the hope of wage inflation providing the self-sustaining glue to hold this 'thing' together post-Fed-Taper is fading fast as the liquidity pipeline remains unerringly clogged.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...4_claims_0.png

and unit labor costs have missed expectations for 4 fo te last 5 months...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._claims1_0.png

Charts: Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...costs-stagnate

ADP Payrolls 176K, Small Miss, Pace Of Increase Broken For First Time Since April

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 08:26 -0400


While the ADP private payrolls report is nothing but pompous noise, which despite allegedly relying on actual empirical payrolls data has greater revisions than even the BLS's largely made up number, what it reported today would certainly have implications on expectations for tomorrow' NFP report. Which is why on the surface while the just reported miss to expectations of 176K (Exp. 184K) was not too bad, it was quite bad to those hoping the Friday NFP print would be atrocious and force the Fed to delay tapering. Based on today's data point at least, the Taper is set to proceed in just under two weeks. This was the first miss in three months, and also follows a small revision to the July number from 200K to 198K. Finally, this was the first sequential break in the monthly rate of increase since April.

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...ugust-2013.gif
The breakdown from the ADP report, which is so meaningless, it is just random numbers, but here it is to fill some empty space with 1s and 0s:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...st%20ADP_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...akdown_0_0.jpg
More from the report:

Goods-producing employment rose by 11,000 jobs in August, at roughly half the growth rate of the previous month. Construction payrolls added 4,000 jobs, while manufacturing payrolls increased by 5,000, rebounding from a decline in July.

Service-providing industries added 165,000 jobs in August, down from 176,000 in July. Gains were broad-based across industries. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services added the most jobs with 50,000 over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities services saw an increase of 40,000 jobs, while financial activities showed a modest gain of 1,000 jobs, the category’s smallest monthly increase since June of 2012.

"The U.S. private sector added 176,000 jobs in August, as companies of all sizes expanded their payrolls over the previous month," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The August job gains are in line with the monthly average over the last 12 months.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "It is steady as she goes in the job market. Job gains in August were consistent with increases experienced over the past two-plus years. There is little evidence that fiscal austerity and Health Care Reform have had a significant impact on the job market.”

Some more largely meaningless charts:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...ugust-2013.gif
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...ugust-2013.gif
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...ugust-2013.gif

Finally, where ADP truly excels at: social-network friendly infographics:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2...ugust-2013.gif


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...rst-time-april

PREVIEW: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - 6th Sept 2013

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...cture-9750.png Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 09/06/2013 02:04 -0400


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...;v=gBJEPe0MyR0

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-6th-sept-2013