US Needs To Generate 262K Jobs Each Month To Get Back To Breakeven - 58 Months

US Needs To Generate 262K Jobs Each Month To Get Back To Breakeven

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2012 10:11 -0400

• BLS
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• fixed
• Great Depression
• Unemployment

This is the latest tally: since the start of the Second Great Depression, the US has lost a total of 5.2 million nonfarm payroll jobs, beginning with 138 million jobs in December 2007, and printing at 132.8 million as of 90 minutes ago. So far so good.

The problem, however is that the denominator in the equation is not fixed, and as everyone knows the US labor force, despite the ridiculous BLS data fudging, is growing in line with population, albeit at a slower pace. According to all non-partisan budget forecasters, each month the labor force should be adding 90,000 people. Which in turn means that since December 2007, the labor force has really grown by 4.6 million. Adding these two together leads to a 10 million job deficit. So what has to happen for these 10 million to get promptly put back into jobs, and for America to get back to the ~5% unemployment rate it boasted just as the credit bubble peaked?

Nothing too crazy: the country just has to create 262,000 jobs every month for the remainder of Obama's first, and now, by the looks of it, second term too. We are quite confident he can handle it.

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US Needs To Generate 262K Jobs Each Month To Get Back To Breakeven | ZeroHedge

Four Weeks Of Deja Vu Propaganda

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2012 10:32 -0400
For everyone who wants to see a simple yet explicit example of how the BLS' relentless propaganda courtesy of perpetual prior "adjustments" trickles down in terms of media propaganda, here it is.
From March 15:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...claims%201.jpg

From March 22:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...claims%202.jpg

From March 29:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...claims%203.jpg

From April 5:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...claims%204.jpg

All of this would be great... if only the March 15th original number of 351,000 wasn't lower than the April 5th pre-revision number of 357,000, and which next week will be revised to 361,000!

In the meantime, everyone gets that warm and fuzzy feel: after all Bloomberg itself, which prepared the above reports, just told us its consumer comfort index just soard from -34.7 to -31.4, the highest since 2008. And nobody would ever think of manipulating public opinion now would they?

Four Weeks Of Deja Vu Propaganda | ZeroHedge

Nonfarm Payroll +120,000, Unemployment Rate Fell .1 to 8.2%, Record 87,897,000 "Not in Labor Force"

Friday, April 06, 2012 11:51 AM

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

• US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.2%
• In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,604,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,315,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000.
• The Civilian Labor Force fell by 164,000.
• Those "Not in Labor Force" increased by 310,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
• Those "Not in Labor Force" is at a new record high of 87,897,000.
• By the Household Survey, the number of people employed fell by 31,000.
• By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,270,000.
• Participation Rate fell .1 to 63.8%
• Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today's release.

• US Payrolls +120,000 - Establishment Survey
• US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.2% - Household Survey
• Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell .1 to 34.5 hours
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 5 cents.
  

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

March 2012 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) March 2012 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing, food services and drinking places, and health care, but was down in retail trade.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-b7mPtqAR8X...te-2012-03.png

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-amNvFYrKvX...l-2012-03A.png

Actual employment is about where it was just prior to the 2001 recession.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KwSP10jfas...l-2012-03B.png

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Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.

Since a recent employment low in February 2010, nonfarm payrolls have expanded by 3.6 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, 41 percent have been recovered.

Statistically, 125,000+- jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. For a discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?

The average employment gain over the last 25 months has been 143,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fell from 9.8% to 8.3%

Current Report Jobs

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q07gpCkWzX...l-2012-03C.png

Average Weekly Hours

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PMynpTYq56...l-2012-03D.png

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w7DjCOtCSw...l-2012-03E.png

Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B353eKAOFe...l-2012-03F.png

"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist

• Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 2.1 percent.
  In February, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had an
  over-the-year increase of 2.9 percent; growth in prices has recently been
  outpacing growth in earnings.
• Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zzo-1OwkBl...death-2011.png

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

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Birth-Death Note

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

Household Survey Data

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CWa4-MPLaY...ta-2012-03.png

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In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,604,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,315,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000.

That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes.

Decline in Labor Force Factors

1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Part Time Status

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0KNOjMt8gu...%2B2012-03.png

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There are 7,672,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Table A-15

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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 8.2%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.


Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Note the drop in U-6 unemployment this month as the Civilian Labor Force fell by 164,000. This is beyond statistical noise, to the point of pure statistical bullsheet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Nonfarm Payroll +120,000, Unemployment Rate Fell .1 to 8.2%, Record 87,897,000 "Not in Labor Force"