Thread: EU officials expect Ireland to hold second Lisbon Treaty ref

EU officials expect Ireland to hold second Lisbon Treaty referendum

European Union officials expect Ireland to cave in and hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Autumn 2009.

By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
Last Updated: 8:51PM BST 10 Sep 2008

An internal EU briefing paper, entitled The Solution to the Irish Problem, predicts that Dublin will accede to the re-run at a meeting of Europe's leaders on October 15.

Ireland has been under French and German pressure to hold a second vote and Autumn 2009 has emerged as the favoured date among officials and diplomats ahead of the European Union summit on the future of the Lisbon Treaty next month.

Ireland has refused to deny that a second referendum could occur, following the 'No' vote in June.

The document has been written by an influential group of French officials, called Le Amis du Traite de Lisbonne or Friends of the Lisbon Treaty.

According to the briefing, a second Irish vote will follow a guarantee that Ireland will not lose its European Commissioner and "declarations" on neutrality, abortion and taxation - all issues that dominated the Irish campaign.

"The second Irish referendum could take place, on this new basis, during Autumn 2009, pushing back the coming into force of the Treaty of Lisbon until 2010," says the document.

The text, by a senior European official called Jean-Guy Giraud, who is based in Paris, is widely regarded as reflecting the view in France, current holder of the EU's rotating presidency.

Other EU officials have confirmed that next year's Autumn referendum fixture is gaining ground in informal and formal talks between diplomats ahead of the summit next month.

"This date is the one being mentioned in discussions," said a source.

Ireland's referendum rejection on June 12 means that the Lisbon Treaty can not enter into force until all the EU's 27 countries have ratified it.

Ireland is looking increasingly isolated as ratification has continued across the EU and, barring technicalities, the Lisbon Treaty has now been approved in 24 countries.

The Lisbon Treaty has a controversial past as the successor to the EU Constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters three years ago.

Like its Constitution forebear, the Lisbon Treaty creates an EU President, a "foreign minister" and establishes an European diplomatic servive.

Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France, met with senior Euro-MPs over lunch in Paris to discuss the Lisbon Treaty and other issues.

President Sarkozy is planning a visit to Dublin in December "with a message for the Irish", by which time the Lisbon Treaty is expected to have been ratified in all EU countries except Ireland.

"It is clear that the only question over a second referendum for Sarkozy is that of timing," said one MEP at the lunch.

Hans-Gert Pottering, President of the European Parliament, is still pushing for the Irish to vote again before euro-elections next year amid fears that the Europe-wide poll will become a referendum on the unpopular EU Treaty.

"The President of the European Parliament has - several times - wished that the Treaty of Lisbon enters into force before June 2009 (in practice, in March 2009 at the latest for the organisation of the poll in the member states)," says the briefing document.

An Irish spokeswoman said: "The government position is no decision has been taken. All options are on the table."

Key to a deal on a second Irish vote will be the issue of the future size of the European Commission, because the Lisbon Treaty envisaged a cut in the number of Commissioners by 2014.

While the current Nice Treaty preserves the one country, one commissioner principle it also states that when the EU consists of 27 countries the "commission shall be less than the number of member states".

The current European Commission's term expires at the end of next October and talks on how to manage the appointment of a new EU executive, whether under Nice or Lisbon rules, are underway.

Diplomats have considered extending the current Commission's mandate into early 2010, clearing the way for a second referendum in October next year.

Also on the table, according to the briefing paper, will be "a political declaration confirming that the Treaty of Lisbon does not jeopardise Irish neutrality, or the rule of unanimity on tax matters and will not oblige Ireland to modify its legislation on abortion".

The same issues were also identified as key to Irish voters in research published by Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin.

"The main issues of concern are the composition of the Commission, the corporate tax base, workers' rights, neutrality and abortion were factors," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ld-second-
Lisbon-Treaty-referendum.html

this is what you can expect with the North American Union

Thanks AS7. And it sounds like we do need a new posting category about this entire mess as I too see it in the future of the US.
Hopefully J. Corsi gets wind of this whole thing and publishes something.

Polls conducted by RTE (Irish news) consistently have shown that the overwhelming majority of Irish voters say that if brought up to a vote again, they would kick out all elected officials lol. Two thirds of the Irish who voted in favor of the treaty would change to a no vote on principal. The biggest problem that they will not be able to fix is the language in the treaty outlawing the votes of the people on treaties. Many Irish have grandparents who lost loved ones in the fight for freedom, and they are not willing to relinquish that much control to the EU. I will call the inlaws in the next day or two to get an update on the current feelings, but as of a month ago, even the thought of the government being condescending enough to put it up for a second vote had tempers flaring. Somewhere on this site (alipac) a few months back I posted the results of one poll asking the Irish if they knew what "no" meant. The results were sent to the Taoiseach's (Irish for prime minister) office just in case he was confused. It is not totally inconceivable if Ireland is continued to be pressured by this that they may just opt to vote themselves out of the EU. In the past few months, there has been talk on the streets anyway.

Thursday, 11 September 2008 16:40

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said there will be another referendum on our relationship with Europe and that the only issue is what question will be put.

Mr Gilmore had earlier said Labour would oppose any attempt to re run the Lisbon referendum.

He was speaking at the end of a special parliamentary party meeting in Clonmel, Co Tipperary.
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With next year's elections in mind, Labour was focussing on party image and organisation today.

Improving on what was a good performance in the last local polls is likely to be a challenge and proposals due soon from a special commission are eagerly awaited.

In the meantime Mr Gilmore was keeping up the pressure on the Government with a call for an early by election in Dublin South to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Séamus Brennan.

The Government is thought unlikely to heed that but may welcome a softening in his line on a second Lisbon poll.

After the failed referendum he had said Labour would oppose any attempt to re run it.

The Labour leader maintained we should now address the general question of our relationship with Europe and where it was going.

He insisted that Labour saw our position as firmly within a social and democratic Europe.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0911/labour.html

I will stop hogging this post, but first, even though the video is about the first vote, the comments are all from within the last week. It is what is on the minds of the Irish youtube bloggers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GnUL69fjNs

go at it cayla99 ... glad to see I am not the only one concerned about the EU bullying small nations

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

go at it cayla99 ... glad to see I am not the only one concerned about the EU bullying small nations

It is a concern close to our family. It is affecting my husbands parents and other relatives. Don't worry, we are not planning on sponsoring any of them lol My brother-in-law is afraid to fly

Actually Sapper, the Irish are getting letters from the common man all over Europe. They are the only nation where the PEOPLE are getting any say. From England, to Germany to France, citizens BEGGED the Irish to say no. After the vote, the number of thank you's in the paper ran four or five pages long for a month. They came from all over Europe. In some way, the Irish feel like they are speaking for all of the common people. I know they will stand strong.

[quote]


Referendum re-run 'not an option'
25/08/2008 - 12:39:14

Minister of State for Europe Dick Roche’s comments that the Government may re-run the Lisbon Treaty referendum, is “another example of a Government without a planâ€