"We Will Be At War With China In 15 Years" Predicts Former Commander Of U.S. Army In

"We Will Be At War With China In 15 Years" Predicts Former Commander Of U.S. Army In Europe

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Now a guiding assumption among top US military commanders...

Fri, 10/26/2018 - 05:15
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Days after U.S. warships made a provocative passage through the Taiwan Strait on Monday, further making already strained tensions between the Washington and Beijing — currently in the midst of a trade war — even hotter, the former top commander of the US Army in Europe has predicted the United States and China will likely be at war in 15 years.
Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges made the bombshell and alarming comments at a Warsaw security forum on Wednesday where he urged European allies to do more in preparing their own defenses against Russia while Americans focus more on the Pacific.
Gen. Hodges said, according to the Military Times:

I think in 15 years — it's not inevitable, but it is a very strong likelihood — that we will be at war with China. The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat.

This statement is hugely remarkable in that it signifies the thesis has just left the domain of academic international relations theoreticians and has now become a guiding assumption of military commanders with years of experience on the ground.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...n%20Hodges.jpg General Ben Hodges (ret). commanded the US Army in Europe from 2014-2017. Image source: AP file photoHodges served as US Army commander in Europe during 2014-17, which makes his warning especially noteworthy, and he's now an analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis. He addressed an ongoing policy debate among policy and defense official circles over whether it's a mistake for Washington to focus its defense efforts on "threats" like Russian and Iran.
Meanwhile international relations theorist John Mearsheimer, recently drew controversy by expressing publicly at a policy conference that the United States should cool its rhetoric on Russian and Iran — and even work with the two countries — in order to focus on curtailing the true long-term threat of China.

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https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...5Fi_normal.jpg Eric Jones @E_JonesFi

Video at the tweet

At CSIS, Mearsheimer emphasizes that the US is pursuing counterproductive strategic objectives. He argues the US should embrace #Iran & #Russia to balance the long-term threat of #China's influence in Eurasia & the Gulf. But instead, the US is confronting all 3 simultaneously.
1:37 PM - Oct 24, 2018

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And interestingly, Steve LeVine writing at Axios early this week posed the question long on the Western public's mind: what are the chances of a US-China war?
While both Gen. Hodges and John Mearsheimer shocked audiences by saying war is almost inevitable on the current trajectory of soaring US-China tensions, Harvard professor and author agrees with them, and further explains just how this scenarios would come about.
LeVine recently crossed paths with Graham Allison, who published his explosive "Destined For War: Can America And China Escape Thucydides Trap?" a year ago which detailed the reasons for a coming major war being all but inevitable, sparking a global debate about the Harvard professor's controversial thesis. LeVine followed up with Allison in relation to the recent uptick in tensions in the region of the South China Sea:

He said, if history holds, the U.S. and China appeared headed toward war.
Over the weekend, I asked him for an update — specifically whether the danger of the two going to war seems to have risen.
"Yes," he responded. The chance of war is still less than 50%, but "is real — and much more likely than is generally recognized."

LeVine comments of Graham Allison's central thesis, "Glued to a 2,400-year-old script, the U.S. and China seem to be on the same war-bound path that great powers have taken since Sparta fought upstart Athens."
LeVine summarizes, based on Allison's latest comments, that now more than ever the two great powers are inching toward that trap in their brinkmanship based on an "inexorable, invisible force prodding them to almost inevitable war". Per the Axios report:

The U.S. has slapped increasing tariffs on Beijing, cordoned off U.S. tech, and jailed a Chinese spy, while Beijing has continued to build its military footprint in the disputed South China Sea, demanded tech secrets from Western companies, and more.

But would the current trade war alone or even wide scale tech theft and a few encounters on the open seas be enough to trigger escalation and actual war?

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https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...oFv_normal.jpg Dr. Katarzyna PISARSKA @KPisarska

@AndersFoghR says that NATO after its latest summit is strengthened military but weakened politically while Gen. Ben Hodges predicts war between US and China
All at the #WSF2018
5:19 AM - Oct 24, 2018

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Likely not, says Allison, but instead a WWI type scenario of an unintended domino effect of one-upmanship in which, for example, the simple assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered massive escalation leading to world war. By a similar scenario, writes LeVine of Allison's comments, "the two countries will be pulled into conflict by miscalculation involving a third party, such as Taiwan."
Says Professor Graham Allison:

"What happens is that a third-party provocation, an accident, becomes a trigger to which one of the two feels obliged to respond. and they find themselves in a war that neither wanted."

We saw precisely this almost happen between the US and Russia over Syria on multiple occasions over the past two years — especially with the September accidental downing of the Russian IL-20 surveillance plane with 15 crew members on board after US ally Israel launched a wide scale missile assault on Syrian government facilities.
But with the former commander of US Army forces in Europe now saying "in 15 years we will be at war with China" the thesis has just left the domain of academic international relations theoreticians and has now become a guiding assumption of top military commanders.

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✯ CHINESE Hell March ✯

Top Communist Party Official Threatens Military Intervention Over Pence's Support For Taiwan

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"This confrontational thinking is an important reason for global unrest, and the main source of all international hotspot issues."

Thu, 10/25/2018 - 23:20
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With the on-again-off-again trade war detente back in "off again" mode as China is once again refusing to bow to the US's demands for concessions, and with military tensions simmering in the background as the US seriously considers withdrawing from the INF, the Communist Party's top defense official demanded that the US end its aggressive policy toward China during a speech at the Xiangshan security forum in Beijing in front of a crowd of 500 foreign delegates from 74 countries (including the US).
According to the South China Morning Post, Wei Fenghe, the Chinese defense minister, criticized Washington for "seriously damaging the Sino-US relationship and mutual trust" by accusing China of interfering in the midterm elections and by characterizing China's "debt diplomacy" as a neo-colonialist tool for acquiring foreign resources for its "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
Without referencing Pence by name (the Vice President delivered one of the most sweeping condemnations of China's foreign and economic policies during a speech earlier this month), Wei articulated China's "anger and resolute opposition" and demanded that the Trump Administration drop its aggressive posture toward China. "We strongly call on the US to remedy the mistakes, stop damaging China’s interests and the Sino-US relationship."
The remarks followed similarly hostile remarks directed at Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who became embroiled in a dramatic confrontation with China's foreign minister during a recent trip to Beijing.
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In the latest sign that the Trump Administration's friendly stance toward Taiwan has rattled China, Wei, reiterating a threat made by numerous senior Chinese officials, warned that the mainland wouldn't hesitate to bring the full brunt of is military to bear against Taiwan - and any country aiding the Taiwanese - if its rogue province tries to formally break away from the mainland.
Another senior CCP official, Li Zhanshu, a trusted ally of President Xi Jinping, issued a similar warning during the conference's opening remarks on Wednesday. Li, chairman of the National People’s Congress and the third-highest-ranking official on the Politburo Standing Committee, denounced "confrontational thinking" - a veiled attack on the Trump administration's policy.

He condemned what he implied were recent efforts by world powers to push other nations to form an alliance against China.
"The alignment is a small group that engages in exclusivity, and aimed at third parties," Li told the dinner without naming the US.
"This confrontational thinking is an important reason for global unrest, and the main source of all international hotspot issues."

A "Beijing-based source" (code for a senior Communist Party official) told the SCMP that Li’s aggressive speech represented Xi’s thoughts on the US-China trade war.

"Xi wants the trade row with US to stop as soon as possible, which he believes is also the common hope of some American politicians and entrepreneurs," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity．
Li said China’s adherence to the principle of formal non-alignment with or against any major power bloc was the way to go in international relations.
Dealing only with “the concept of reciprocity and win-win”, China advocated partnerships that sought “common ground” and “not aimed at third parties”, he said.
China “respects the choices of people all over the world for their independent social system and development approaches”, he said.
In the era of the global village, “no country can independently deal with all the challenges that humankind is facing, and no country can return to a self-enclosed system”, Li said.

Li added that cooperation was "the only choice" for the US if it hopes to have cordial relations with China, and that the two sides should try to resolve their issues with "dialogue and consultation."

"Cooperation is the only correct choice for Sino-US relations: both sides will be hurt if they fight each other," he said.
"The two sides should properly resolve problems through dialogue and consultation to ensure that Sino-US relations move along the right track."
On top of the trade war, China-US relations have been hurt by US accusations that Beijing is trying to interfere in the upcoming US midterm elections.
"Some countries have adopted a series of wrong practices on the Taiwan issue, damaging the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait and threatening the region and peace," Li said.
"[Beijing] firmly opposes [those independent moves] and will keep sticking to the principle of ‘peaceful reunification, one country, two systems’."
It would also continue to "strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and best efforts," he said.

The Xiangshan Forum has become a platform for China to try and persuade foreigner officials that its claims on the South China Sea should be respected - and that the US should seriously consider removing its weapons from the South Korean peninsula. Two issues that the US will likely never give up on.

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