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Thread: Barometer Polling Company: Nationwide Poll of 540 Likely Republican Primary Voters

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    Barometer Polling Company: Nationwide Poll of 540 Likely Republican Primary Voters

    For Immediate Release
    February 5, 2018


    What: Immigration Memo for Americans for Legal Immigration PAC
    From: The Barometer Polling Company

    Who: Nationwide Poll of 540 Likely Republican Primary Voters

    When: 1/30-2/1/2018
    MOE: +/- 4.0

    Likely Republican Primary Voters Reject President Trump and Congressional Republicans Plan for Amnesty 2:1

    By a margin of 2:1, likely 2018 Republican primary voters want President Trump and the Republican controlled House and Senate to focus on enforcing our current immigration laws instead of its current focus to provide mass Amnesty to between 690,000 and 1.8 million illegal aliens.
    The survey asked the pool of 540 nationwide Republicans most likely to vote, not only in the upcoming general election, but also in their state’s primary election, if President Trump should “focus on enforcing our existing immigration laws or ask Congress to change the laws to provide illegal immigrants with DACA Amnesty.” A slightly different variation of the question was then asked if Congress should “focus on enforcing our existing immigration laws or change the laws to provide illegal immigrants with DACA Amnesty.”
    Overwhelmingly, likely Republican primary voters said that the President and Congress should focus on enforcing our current immigration laws over even considering any form of Amnesty.
    Sixty-seven percent of respondents said Congress should focus on enforcing the laws we already have on the books, versus only 33% who said they should focus on providing Amnesty. Similarly, 65.4% of respondents said President Trump should focus the resources of the federal government to uphold national immigration laws already in place.

    Congress
    When asked, “Should Congress focus on enforcing our existing immigration laws or change laws to provide illegal immigrants with DACA Amnesty?” a resounding 67% simply wants Congress to simply enforce the laws they’ve already passed, including 72.6% of men and 60.2% of women (see cross tabs below).
    Furthermore, a majority of responded in the affirmative in their preference to “enforce existing laws” in every single subset category of respondents.

    In addition to the majority of men and women included in the survey, likely Republican primary voters in all four census regions of the country also indicated their preference to enforce existing law, ranging from 61.8% in the Midwest to 76.8% in the South.
    More granular numbers among the Republican Party faithful show an even more intense level of support for enforcing existing laws already passed by Congress.
    Seventy-one point two percent of likely Republican primary voters in states President Trump carried in 2016 wants Congress to enforce, including 79.9% of Southerners, 78.8% of men, and 62.4% of voters in the Midwest. Voters in those states provided Trump with 83.3% of his Electoral College votes in 2016 and sent 72.2% of GOP members in the House of Representatives to Washington.
    These numbers are even more pronounced when you look specifically at respondents in districts located in states Trump carried that are also currently represented by a Republican member of Congress. Seventy-three percent of all respondents in these districts, including 80.5% of men, 81% of Southerners, and 64.6% of likely Republican voters in the Midwest, want their Republican member of Congress to enforce our current laws instead of providing Amnesty.
    Finally, when looking at respondents in districts represented by a GOP member in Congress across all states (red, purple, and blue), 68.5% want their Republican representative and/or Senator to enforce the laws already on the books, which includes 73.6% of men, 80.5% of those below the Mason-Dixon Line, and 76.9% in the Midwest.
    These results should be pretty sobering statistics for Republican members of the House and Senate. Across the board, the voters they must rely upon to get re-elected are dead set in their opposition to Amnesty. In a year that many of the experts are already predicting a drop-off in Republican base enthusiasm, any efforts by the Republican-controlled Congress to pass legislative amnesty would further dampen and depress the party faithful’s motivation to turn out in November.
    In regards to their respective primary elections that they must win before the general, Republican members of Congress would be wise to remember that the pro-enforcement/outsider wave did not start with Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2016, but in 2014, when a little-known college professor named Dave Brat defeated the sitting House Majority Leader at the time, and known Amnesty advocate, Eric Cantor.

    Question: Should Congress focus on enforcing our existing immigration laws or focus on giving illegal immigrants DACA Amnesty?
    All Respondents
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    All Respondents
    67.0
    33.0
    53.7
    Men
    72.6
    27.4
    46.3
    Women
    60.2
    39.8
    36.1
    South
    76.8
    23.2
    19.8
    Northeast
    69.9
    30.1
    26.7
    West
    63.6
    36.4
    21.4
    Midwest
    61.8
    38.2
    Red States
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    Red States (Won by Trump in 2016)
    71.2
    28.8
    56.1
    Men
    78.8
    21.2
    43.9
    Women
    61.7
    38.3
    53.9
    South
    79.9
    20.1
    33.6
    Midwest
    62.4
    37.6
    6.9
    Northeast
    n/a
    n/a
    5.6
    West
    n/a
    n/a
    All GOP House Districts
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    All GOP House Districts
    68.5
    31.5
    56.2
    Men
    73.6
    26.4
    43.8
    Women
    61.2
    38.8
    45.1
    South
    80.5
    19.5
    29.7
    Midwest
    76.9
    23.1
    12.3
    Northeast
    62.6
    37.4
    12.9
    West
    56.1
    43.9
    GOP House Districts - Red States
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    GOP House Districts in Red States
    73.0
    27.0
    56.7
    Men
    80.5
    19.5
    43.3
    Women
    63.0
    37.0
    52.1
    South
    81.0
    19.0
    34.0
    Midwest
    64.6
    35.4
    7.4
    Northeast
    n/a
    n/a
    6.4
    West
    n/a
    n/a


    President Trump
    While many of President Trump’s policies may still be popular with the Republican base, his surprising plan to grant Amnesty to 1.8 million illegal aliens, most decidedly, is not.
    Sixty-five point four percent of Republican primary voters likely to vote in the 2018 midterms said that President Trump should focus on “enforcing our current immigration laws” versus only 34.6% which said he should “ask Congress to change laws to help illegal immigrants with DACA Amnesty.”
    Of note, the poll was taken in the two days following President Trump’s first State of the Union address where he inexplicably broke his campaign pledge of “no amnesty” by asking Congress to provide Amnesty through a pathway to citizenship for the so-called “Dreamers.”
    During the 2016 Presidential Election, then candidate Trump made the enforcement of our long-ignored immigration laws the cornerstone of his Presidential campaign. In his August 2016 speech in Phoenix, Arizona, candidate Trump promised the American people that there would be “no consideration of Amnesty until illegal immigration is a thing of the past.”
    In an acknowledgment of the fact that border crossings have risen back to Obama-era levels, the Republican primary electorate seems to be sending a message to President Trump: Keep Your Promise. Enforce the laws Congress has already passed. No Amnesty.
    In states where the President defeated Hillary Clinton with his pro-enforcement message in 2016, the call for simply enforcing our existing immigration laws instead of granting Amnesty is even more pronounced. Sixty-seven point three percent of Republicans likely to show up to the polls in 2018 agreed that the President should maintain his campaign promise, including 75% of men and 58% of women.
    Again, while the President may still have solid approval ratings amongst the Republican primary electorate, his unnecessary pivot towards Amnesty is very unpopular with the voters he needs most. If the most loyal parts of the Republican Party base feel that he has broken his promise and engaged in a dramatic departure from his signature campaign issue, then it could very well sour the faithful on him and Republican members of Congress, depressing turnout in this year’s midterms and his bid for re-election in 2020. Notably, the President’s main rival for the 2016 GOP nomination, Senator Ted Cruz, has come out strongly opposed to the President’s plan to provide Amnesty to millions in the United States illegally.

    Question: Should President Trump focus on enforcing our existing immigration laws or ask Congress to provide illegal immigrants with DACA Amnesty?
    All Respondents
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    All Respondents
    65.4
    34.6
    53.7
    Men
    70.9
    29.1
    46.3
    Women
    58.8
    41.2
    36.1
    South
    73.3
    26.7
    19.8
    West
    59.8
    40.2
    26.7
    Midwest
    59.2
    40.8
    21.4
    Northeast
    59.0
    41.0
    Red States
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    Red States (Won by Trump in 2016)
    67.3
    32.7
    56.1
    Men
    75.2
    24.8
    43.9
    Women
    58.4
    41.6
    53.9
    South
    74.0
    26.0
    33.6
    Midwest
    62.0
    38.0
    6.9
    Northeast
    n/a
    n/a
    5.6
    West
    n/a
    n/a
    All GOP House Districts
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    All GOP House Districts
    66.6
    33.4
    56.2
    Men
    71.9
    28.1
    43.8
    Women
    59.4
    40.6
    45.1
    South
    74.8
    25.2
    29.7
    Midwest
    62.2
    37.8
    12.3
    Northeast
    61.7
    38.3
    12.9
    West
    53.8
    46.2
    GOP House Districts - Red States
    % of Total
    Group Enforce Current Laws Provide Amnesty
    100
    GOP House Districts in Red States
    69.0
    31.0
    56.7
    Men
    73.6
    26.4
    43.3
    Women
    63.1
    36.9
    52.1
    South
    73.6
    26.4
    34.0
    Midwest
    65.8
    34.2
    7.4
    Northeast
    n/a
    n/a
    6.4
    West
    n/a
    n/a


    Conclusion
    These results should not surprise anyone who witnessed the two “pro-enforcement” candidates in the 2016 GOP Presidential primary, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, finish first and second respectively overall.
    The message remains clear – Republican primary voters do not support Amnesty and want the President and Congress to uphold the Constitution by enforcing the immigration laws already on the books.
    Many believe Donald Trump would have never been elected President had he not assumed the pro-enforcement message he employed throughout the 2016 campaign.
    Despite the fawning, one-sided press coverage by the media in portraying those currently under consideration to receive Amnesty, likely Republican primary voters see things differently and do not want President Trump or their representatives in the House and Senate to be any part of voting for an Amnesty package for illegal aliens – no matter their age or how they came to the United States.
    This nationwide poll, taken in the days immediately following the President’s State of the Union call to give citizenship to millions of illegal aliens, demonstrates that while the pressure from the pro-Amnesty crowd in Washington is exerting substantial influence, the “forgotten men and women” of the United States who value fairness and American tradition of equality, under the law, have not moved an inch on the issue and are still firmly opposed to Amnesty in any form.
    While President Trump’s name won’t be on the ballot in 2018, his Party and slim majority in Congress will. He and Republican Members of Congress should consider how legislation that rewards those who have broken our laws will depress their voter base and use the next nine months to honor their campaign promises and enforce our laws.

    Methodology: The Barometer Polling Company presents these scientific findings based on a nationwide poll of 540 likely 2018 Republican primary voters who have voted in at least three of the last four Republican primary elections in their home state. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area probabilistic sample of registered voters from Aristotle International. The overall sample size was N = 540 with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, state, region, and congressional district carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using live callers calling landlines only and was conducted January 31-February 1, 2018.

    Regions Defined by U.S. Census Bureau
    Midwest: Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Wisconsin, South Dakota.
    Northeast: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.
    South: Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia.
    West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.


    Poll Highlights



    TEXAS


    Group
    Enforce Current Laws (%)
    Red State GOP House Districts in South
    81
    Likely GOP Primary Voters in TX GOP House Districts
    80.6
    GOP House Districts in South
    80.5
    Men in GOP House Districts
    80.5
    Red State GOP House Districts (Men)
    80.5
    Red States (South)
    79.9
    Red States (Men)
    78.8
    TX Statewide Likely GOP Primary Voters
    77.8
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (South)
    76.8
    Red State GOP House Districts (All)
    73
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Men)
    72.6
    Red States (All)
    71.2
    GOP House Districts (All)
    68.5
    Nationwide Likely GOP Primary Voters
    67
    Women in GOP House Districts
    63.1
    Red States (Women)
    61.7
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Women)
    60.2


    FLORIDA

    Group Enforce Current Laws (%)
    Likely Primary GOP Voters in FL GOP House Districts
    90.9
    Florida Likely GOP Primary Voters 87.5
    Red State GOP House Districts in South 81
    GOP House Districts in South 80.5
    Men in GOP House Districts 80.5
    Red State GOP House Districts (Men) 80.5
    Red States (South) 79.9
    Red States (Men) 78.8
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (South) 76.8
    Red State GOP House Districts (All) 73
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Men) 72.6
    Red States (All) 71.2
    GOP House Districts (All) 68.5
    Nationwide Likely GOP Primary Voters 67
    Women in GOP House Districts 63.1
    Red States (Women) 61.7
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Women) 60.2
    Florida Likely General Election Voters 58.6*

    *Taken in separate poll


    NORTH CAROLINA

    Group
    Enforce Current Laws (%)
    Red State GOP House Districts in South
    81
    GOP House Districts in South
    80.5
    Men in GOP House Districts
    80.5
    Red State GOP House Districts (Men)
    80.5
    Red States (South)
    79.9
    Red States (Men)
    78.8
    Likely GOP Primary Voters in NC GOP House Districts
    78.6
    North Carolina Likely GOP Primary Voters
    77.8
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (South)
    76.8
    Red State GOP House Districts (All)
    73
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Men)
    72.6
    Red States (All)
    71.2
    GOP House Districts (All)
    68.5
    Nationwide Likely GOP Primary Voters
    67
    All Likely NC Voters (Statewide)
    66.5*
    Women in GOP House Districts
    63.1
    Red States (Women)
    61.7
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Women)
    60.2

    *Taken in Separate Poll



    ARKANSAS

    Group
    Enforce Current Laws (%)
    Red State GOP House Districts in South
    81
    GOP House Districts in South
    80.5
    Men in GOP House Districts
    80.5
    Red State GOP House Districts (Men)
    80.5
    Arkansas Likely GOP Primary Voters
    80
    Red States (South)
    79.9
    Red States (Men)
    78.8
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (South)
    76.8
    Red State GOP House Districts (All)
    73
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Men)
    72.6
    Red States (All)
    71.2
    GOP House Districts (All)
    68.5
    Nationwide Likely GOP Primary Voters
    67
    Women in GOP House Districts
    63.1
    Red States (Women)
    61.7
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Women)
    60.2

    IOWA

    Group Enforce Current Laws (%)
    Men in GOP House Districts 80.5
    Red State GOP House Districts (Men) 80.5
    Red States (Men) 78.8
    GOP House Districts in Midwest 76.9
    Statewide Iowa Likely GOP Primary Voters 75
    Red State GOP House Districts (All) 73
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Men) 72.6
    Red States (All) 71.2
    GOP House Districts (All) 68.5
    Nationwide Likely GOP Primary Voters 67
    Red State GOP House Districts in Midwest 65.8
    Women in GOP House Districts 63.1
    Red States (Midwest) 62.4
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Midwest) 61.8
    Red States (Women) 61.7
    All Likely GOP Primary Voters (Women) 60.2
    Last edited by ALIPAC; 02-12-2018 at 11:15 AM.
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