Non-Citizens Are Illegally Registering to Vote Ahead of November Elections, Study Finds

Frank Bergman
May 15, 2024 - 5:35 pm

A new study has found that a shocking number of non-citizens have registered to vote in America’s elections ahead of the critical November presidential race.

The study, published by Just Facts, is based on the latest available data and an enhanced version of a stress-tested methodology from a scholarly journal.

Researchers found that about 10 percent to 27 percent of non-citizen adults living in the U.S. are now illegally registered to vote.

The U.S. Census recorded more than 19 million adult non-citizens living in the U.S. during 2022.

Given their voter registration rates, this means that about two million to five million of them are illegally registered to vote.

These figures are potentially high enough to overturn the will of the American people in major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.

In 2014, the academic journal Electoral Studies published a groundbreaking study by three scholars who estimated how frequently non-citizens were illegally voting.

Based on data from the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, the study found that:

  • “roughly one-quarter of non-citizens” in the U.S. “were likely registered to vote;”
  • “6.4 percent of non-citizens actually voted;”
  • 81.8 percent of them “reported voting for Barack Obama;” and
  • illegal votes cast by non-citizens “likely” changed “important election outcomes” in favor of Democrats, “including Electoral College votes” and a “pivotal” U.S. Senate race that enabled Democrats to pass Obamacare.

The study’s voter registration rate was estimated with data from two key sources:

  1. A national survey in which 14.8 percent of non-citizens admitted that they were registered to vote.
  2. A database of registered voters reveals what portion of the surveyed non-citizens “were in fact registered” even though “they claimed not to be registered.”

By combining these data, the author’s “best” estimate was that 25.1 percent of non-citizens were illegally registered to vote.

The authors calculated voter turnout with the same datasets.

However, their methodology yielded a best estimate that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008.

This figure is lower than the 8.0 percent of non-citizens who stated “I definitely voted” and explicitly named the candidate they voted for.

This and other matters led Just Facts to engage in extensive correspondence with the lead author of the study to verify practically every detail of it.

Just Facts then conducted a comparable study that used the same datasets, a more straightforward methodology, and related studies to constrain assumptions.

This found that roughly 27 percent of non-citizens were registered to vote and about 16 percent of them voted in the 2008 national elections.

As is often the case with studies of illegal actions where enforcement is limited, both Just Facts’ study and the one from Electoral Studies have sizeable margins of uncertainty.

This is due to relatively small sample sizes and other possible sources of error — some that could produce overcounts and others undercounts.

This issue is rasing serious concerns about the impact on the 2024 presidential election.

In presidential elections, roughly half of non-citizens who are registered turn out to vote.

Given that about 10 percent to 27 percent of them are currently registered, this means about 5 percent to 13 percent of them will illegally vote in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections.

The U.S. Census recorded a population of 19.7 million voting-age non-citizens in the U.S. during 2022.

This is an absolute minimum because the Census doesn’t count masses of non-citizens who falsely claim to be citizens or don’t fill out Census surveys.

Also, the figure of 19.7 million doesn’t include multitudes of non-citizens who’ve entered since 2022.

This includes people who legally immigrated, crossed the border illegally, or were allowed into the country under the Biden administration’s parole policies.

Based on the data above, roughly 1.0 million to 2.7 million non-citizens will illegally vote in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections unless stronger election integrity measures are implemented.

To prevent illegal voting by non-citizens, congressional Republicans recently introduced a 22-page bill to “require proof of United States citizenship” to register to vote in federal elections.

While reporting on a press conference announcing the legislation, media outlets like the Associated Press, CNN, NBC News, Rolling Stone, and NPR attacked the bill as unnecessary.

NPR, for instance, reported that “it’s already illegal” for non-citizens to vote in federal elections.

The outlet insists that “there’s never been evidence to support the idea noncitizens are voting at anything other than minuscule numbers.”

Those claims conveniently echo the sentiments of Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration on this matter.

All 50 states require people to be U.S. citizens in order to register to vote in federal elections, and federal law forbids non-citizens from falsely claiming citizenship to register to vote.

However, enforcement mechanisms for such laws are limited, and opportunities to get around them are ample.

For a prime example, federal law requires all states to register voters for federal elections via a form developed by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

The form requires people to declare that they are U.S. citizens, but it doesn’t require them to prove it.
Several states, including Arizona and Georgia, tried to require people who register with the federal form to provide “documentary evidence” of citizenship.

Nevertheless, those efforts were blocked by court rulings supported by the Obama administration.

So instead of proof of citizenship, the federal form allows people to register and vote with assorted forms of “identification” like a “utility bill” or “bank statement.”

The federal form also has state-specific instructions which are rife with loopholes that could allow non-citizens to register.

The instructions for New Jersey are typical of most states:

The last four digits of your Social Security number OR your New Jersey Driver’s License number is required for voter registration.

If you do not possess either of these identifications, please write “NONE” on the form.
The State will assign a number that will serve to identify you for voter registration purposes.

In the 2008 presidential election, 82 percent of non-citizens who admitted that they voted stated that they voted for Democrat Barack Obama.

Just 18 percent said they voted for Republican John McCain.

Showing this was not a fluke, Richman found in multiple surveys conducted from 2006 to 2022.

Those surveys found that between 73 and 82 percent of non-citizens supported Democrat candidates.

Instead of reporting these facts or mitigating this threat to every citizen’s right to vote, “fact checkers,” corporate media outlets, and elected Democrats continue to deny this problem exists.