100,000,000+ Americans Out of Work: Jobs Report a Warning Sign of Stealth Depression

100,000,000+ Americans Out of Work: Jobs Report is an Ignored Warning Sign of a Stealth Depression

Posted on July 7, 2013 by BMartin1776

Since 1948 no other POTUS has had a run of unemployment for 54 straight months at 7.5% or higher! From the lack of outrage this is the new normal! How can I say that? Well Obama blasted his predecessor when unemployment was at 5.6% in 2004…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...;v=6Ae2Anha7ig

So the president, then senate candidate, criticized 316,000 jobs being created and an unemployment rate at 5.6% but is silent about 54 consecutive mos of unemployment over 7.5%? This must mean the administration is okay with high unemployment! The 7.5% isn’t the real number either! No it’s much higher actually for quite some time holding around 23%!

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-...d&t=1373030154 I wrote a few months ago that 100 million Americans unemployed is a conservative number because it only factors in those unemployed that are on the books. I stand by that figure as the BLS continues to report there are 11.77 million unemployed, these are the people “on the books”. What is left out of this number are those people no longer acknowledged, the forgotten Americans that are out of the labor workforce which holdssteady just under 90 million reported a few mos ago. This gets us to 101.494 million Americans out of work or underemployed.

Wait it gets better! The number out of work is even higher than 101.494mil as many Americans still unemployed, who no longer qualify for UE benefits, work the system jumping on disability at a record 10.9 million! “The 10,978,040 disability beneficiaries in the United States now exceed the population of all but seven states. For example, there are more Americans collecting disability today than there are people living in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey or Virginia.” Many on disability have legitimate claims but this rate has been steadily climbing since 0bama took office with unemployment stats.

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/i3oHkOsmf.kI.jpg Since April the total number of Americans unemployed, out of the work force and on disability has grown by 1.97 million to 112.4+ million from 110.5+ million!! Folks thats over one third of the US population, of 313.9 million (per the US Census Bureau)!

This figure will continue to rise as Obamacare is implemented, and is one of the many reasons the employer mandate has been put on hold. If we continue this current course as originally planned the number of unemployed woud only climb, being higher during the 2014 election cycle! That would not go over well for anyone running for re-election who voted for the bill, thus the delay.

Now if that wasn’t bad enough consider the future effects should the immigration reform bill make it through the House! We have been warned of the negative economic side effects amnesty will have on our work force, but those in power will do everything possible to push it through anyway! This is one more reason our “elected” leaders remain silent and choose not to tell Americans the truth. Instead they argue granting amnesty to 11 million which will balloon to 30-40 million will “stimulate the economy”! We can’t take care of our own but supposedly granting amnesty will give the nation an influx of money and boost the economy?!! Those 11 million here ILLEGALLY aren’t doing much to stimulate the economy as it is! They do need somewhere to sleep, food to eat, clothing to wear etc so their money is already in the economy (minus the little they send home)!

http://faculty.polytechnic.org/gfeldmeth/yonge.jpg I have been saying it and I will continue to rant on that this nation is in a stealth depression. Do not take my word for it do your homework you will see that facts and figures of today are worse than they were during the Great Depression! I’ll help you out with one to prove my point of a stealth depression. The food lines synonymous with the 1930′s have been replaced with EBT cards/ food stamps! Which by the way are at record levels! That imagery of people waiting for food has been removed to keep people but really the markets at bay! So consider entitlement programs in place today that didn’t exist back then in your research! Programs which replace the lines of Americans looking for help be it jobs, food, housing etc. You don’t see it so you think the problem isn’t so bad or even there!

Ask yourself a few of these questions about the Great Depression:

How many Americans had a 2nd mortgage on their home? Heck how many people could even afford a home let alone carry another mortgage?

How many Americans had car loans/ leases of $20,000+?

How many Americans had credit debt of $15,000?

How many carried $50,000-$100,000 in student loan debt?

What were the interest rates on all this debt people carried compared to today? More money loaned out today vs the 30′s and they went under!

How much money was the Federal Reserve pumping into the system every month?

What nation was the industrial hub for manufacturing for the entire world?

Do you see where I am going with this! We are in more trouble than anyone, democrat or republican, will admit. These jobs reports are just a hint at a bigger problem that isn’t going away if you just ignore it…. like our “elected” leaders are doing!

None of our elected leaders, let alone Obama, have taken any steps to slow any of this down. This country is in a massive unspoken free-fall, the job numbers prove that! If the economy was recovering why are so many still out of work!? If manufacturing in the US is up then why aren’t more people working associated to the entire “food-chain” of making a widget? From getting the raw materials down to the sales person?

How many times have you heard someone say “this is the worst ____ since the Great Depression!”? Pundits will compare us to it but never admit we are in fact in a depression!!

So one is left wondering why don’t “they” just come out and say we are in a depression”? Answer to that is quite simple, for anyone to officially say the US is in a depression will result in a massive global economic collapse. Yes, to just say we are in a depression, will tank everything! Pretty much everything people have been warning about will happen very quickly where images of the uprisings taking place in Greece or in the middle east will be not only on US soil but everywhere!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=o399x3YsUtw

The powers that be stay silent, come up with one unsustainable entitlement program after another while the Fed continues to pump money into the system! They devalue the dollar getting us closer to repeating what the Germans saw in the Weimar Republic. We are in a nasty repetitive disastrous economic cycle that sooner or later will implode! You can only run a motor at high RPM’s for prolonged amount of time until it finally blows!

Ehh but what do I know I’m just some crazy, tinfoil hat, racist, bigot, right-winger right leftists!

http://savingtherepublic.com/blog/20...oyment-at-7-5/

Friday, July 05, 2013 11:27 AM

Establishment Survey Jobs +195K; Household Survey +160K; Part-Time Jobs +486,000; 326,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 195,000 and that is a very respectable number. However, the household survey shows a more modest gain of 160,000 jobs.

The civilian labor force rose by 177,000 thus the unemployment rate was steady at 7.6%. Digging beneath the surface, the numbers do not look so good.

326,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost

Involuntary part-time jobs increased by 322,000 while voluntary part-time jobs increased by another 110,000. Thus, of the 160,000 household survey gain, 486,000 of them were part-time jobs, a loss of 326,000 full-time jobs. This caused a spike of 0.5 percentage points in U6 (alternative unemployment) to 14.3%.

The Participation Rate rose 0.1 to 63.5%, 0.2 higher than the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

Obamacare Effect

Last month there was no jump in part-time employment which had me wondering if the the bulk of the Obamacare effect (employers reducing hours from 32 to 25 and hiring hundreds of thousands of new employees to make up the hours) had mostly played out.

This month, the trend of huge part-time employment resumed, and in a major way.

June BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

• Payrolls +195,000 - Establishment Survey
  
• US Employment +160,000 - Household Survey
  
• US Unemployment +17,000 - Household Survey
  
• Involuntary Part-Time Work +322,000 - Household Survey
  
• Voluntary Part-Time Work +110,000 - Household Survey
  
• Baseline Unemployment Rate +0.0 - Household Survey
  
• U-6 unemployment +0.5 to 14.3% - Household Survey
  
• Civilian Labor Force +177,000 - Household Survey
  
• Not in Labor Force +12,000 - Household Survey
  
• Participation Rate +0.1 at 63.5 - Household Survey

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

• The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  
• In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,711,000
  
• Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,610,000 (an average of 134,000 a month)
  
• In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,695,000 to 11,760,000 (a drop of 924,000)
  
• Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 36.7%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
  
• 8,226,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,210,000. There has been little improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

June 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DHnCYjqHJY...l-2013-07A.png

Month to Month Changes

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-A7dG4wFItQ...l-2013-07B.png

click on chart for sharper image

Hours and Wages

Private average weekly hours of production and non-supervisory workers were flat at 33.7 hours. Average weekly hours of all employees was flat at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers rose $0.10 to $24.01. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and non-supervisory employees was up $0.05 to $20.14.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kylB_AOWIJ...ath%2B2012.png

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hwdSedXJrR...l-2013-07C.png

Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DbjJ2mt2TB...l-2013-07D.png

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.6%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.3%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
   
2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
   
3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
   
4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 10%. In addition, there are 8,226,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...jobs-195k.html

BUSINESS

WHY UNDEREMPLOYMENT MAY BE EVEN WORSE THAN IT LOOKS

Jul. 8, 2013 8:30pm Guest Post

[Editor’s note: the following is a cross post by Jeff Cox that originally appeared on CNBC.com]:

The level of underemployed workers looks bad on its face but even worse when it’s not the government doing the counting.

When the Labor Department released its monthly non-farm jobs report Friday, it was all sunshine and roses except for one glaring weakness: A big jump in the unemployment rate that includes those who have quit working as well as those who have had to take part-time jobs even though they’d rather work full-time.

http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/u...iness_desk.jpg

Getty images.

That rate, which economists call the U-6, jumped from 13.8 percent in May to 14.3 percent in June — a 3.6 percent increase and indicative that the 195,000 new jobs created in the month weren’t exactly of the highest caliber.

But what often doesn’t get as much attention is the monthly labor count that the experts at Gallup conduct.

According to the pollster’s results, the underemployment situation is even worse.

Gallup reports that 17.2 percent of the workforce is underemployed, a startling number compounded by its divergence from the government’s count. While the rate is down from the 20.3 percent peak in March 2010, it has remained maddeningly high over the past three years even as economists tout the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

From a broader perspective, the Gallup measure actually has increased from its 15.9 percent multi-year low in October 2012.

The potential significance of the recent trough is that it came a month before the Federal Reservelaunched the third round of quantitative easing, the $85 billion a month bond-buying program that is supposed to help the central bank achieve its dual objectives of price stability — and full employment.

Amid questions of whether QE3 is about to come to end, and if it has been as effective as its predecessors, the underemployment rate will be one important metric to watch.

Aside from the Gallup numbers, the government’s report was discouraging in its own right: A jump from 28.5 percent to 29.3 percent for the percentage of those working part-time for economic reasons in the labor force, and a year-over-year surge of 25.1 percent—1.027 million total—for those “discouraged workers” who have quit searching for jobs.

“It’s a big deal. The labor market is far from healthy, so I don’t want to minimize the fact” that underemployment is on the rise, said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

“To me, it’s something that bears watching,” he added. “Given the month it occurred, we have tremendous exit and entry into the workforce—teachers and students. You really need to reserve judgment. You need another month or two to see if it’s a new trend.”

Indeed, some of the other Gallup metrics point to a bit brighter labor picture.

The firm’s adjusted unemployment rate, which in the past has diverged substantially from the BLS count, stood at 7.6 percent in June, directly in line with the government’s numbers and down substantially from May’s 8.2 percent reading.

Also, its payroll-to-population gage was at 44.8 percent, a 2013 high though below the 45.7 percent in late 2012.

But the labor market faces clear pressure ahead, particularly from government sequestration spending cuts and uncertainty over the looming Obamacare implementation.

http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/u...ph-620x372.png

“We expect labor market pressure from the spending sequester in Washington to spread from reduced hours to job cuts,” Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report for clients.

For now, though, LaVorgna said he is attributing the data point discrepancies to an unusual jobs climate that will out the kinks in the months ahead.

“The labor market is so far from normal that it wouldn’t surprise me that all these metrics are not necessarily moving in the same direction,” he said. “There’s going to be some incongruity between these two series. When things normalize, you would expect these things to rectify themselves.”

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013...than-it-looks/

http://www.alipac.us/f9/101-million-...3/#post1354740

Socialism is the Early - Mid Stages of Communism; AmeriKa is picking up speed and the Progressives in the Republican Party are pushing the Train from behind. There is NO difference between the 2 Major Parties; the Elite from both sides want a 2 Party country. The Elite & the Poor

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...34001279_n.jpg

Meet America's Second Largest Employer: A Temp Agency

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/09/2013 11:10 -0400


Despite the mainstream media's inability to see things as they are - as opposed to how they hope them to be for fear of exposing the status quo for the illusion that it really is - the subject of 'job quality' in this recovery-less recovery has never been far from our thoughts since 2010. David Stockman has often discussed the loss of 'bread-winner' jobs and in fact not only are there a record number of Americans with temporary jobs (28 million or one-in-ten non-farm workers) but behind Wal-Mart (itself arguably a somewhat part-time employer), the Washington Examiner reports, that the second largest employer in America is Kelly Services - a temporary work provider. The company, started in 1946, serves 99% of the Fortune 100 and had revenues of $5.5bn in 2012 (though even this burgeoning growth area is struggling in the last quarter).

This is Kelly Services...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...8_kelly1_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...elly%202_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...8_kelly4_0.jpg
And while fees collected are soaring, meaning more and more workers are part-time...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...y%20Fees_0.jpg
It's been a good run but even Kelly Services is seeing growth slow...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...8_kelly2_0.jpg
Don't worry though as modest job gaines are expected to continue in the US (and Asia-Pac will lead the growth apparently - even as China steps on the brake and the RBA fears recession)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...8_kelly3_0.jpg

As The Examiner concludes, echoing our and Mr. Stockman's previous thoughts, it's a sad state of affairs for our country that the recovery, or lack thereof, is being fueled by a shift from full-time to part-time work.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...er-temp-agency

Exposing The Lie Behind The Nonfarm Payroll Numbers

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/09/2013 12:05 -0400

• BLS
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• fixed
• Lehman
• Reality

While we have already extensively deconstructed the quality components of jobs in the US, showing first that in June 240K full time jobs were lost, even as 360K part-time jobs were "gained", and second that so far in 2013 only 130K full time jobs have been added offset by 557K part-time jobs, we had sinking suspicions that there was something off with the quantity component as well: after all, at an average monthly gain of precisely 201.8K jobs in the past six months (or in 2013), this number seemed just a little too perfect considering the Fed's implicit target of generating just over 200K jobs in a half year period before it begins tapering, which in light of declining gross issuance and less monetizable instruments, has been the Fed's goal all along. Today, courtesy of the monthly JOLTS survey we got just the confirmation we needed that, indeed, the official non-farm payroll number as per the Establishment Survey has been substantially off to the tune of a whopping 40% above what is quantitatively happening in reality.
The JOLTS, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, gets little respect for the main reason that it is one month delayed. Indeed, moments ago it just reported data referencing the month of May. Considering last week we got June's NFP data, this is largely irrelevant. Furthermore, since most people simply look at the survey for the simple "Job Openings" update and compare it to estimates, it provides little actionable data to the HFTs and algos that are all that's left of market traders these days.
However, what also hides inside the JOLTS survey are two other data sets: Hires and Separations. As the name implies, these show how many new hires and how many workers left (either quit or were terminated) businesses. The delta between the Hires and the Separations foots with the actual reported number of job additions, which intuitively makes sense - the net number of added jobs per month is the Hires over the Separations. No rocket surgery there.
So how does the chart look when comparing NFP monthly data with JOLTS Hires less Separations?
Presenting exhibit A: 13 years of JOLTS vs NFP data.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20Total_0.jpg
What becomes obvious when looking at the highlighted area, is that something is very much afoot in BLS-land.
Consider April: according to JOLTS, there were 108K job additions. According to the NFP data, however, the number was 195K in new jobs created.
Or how about May? According to JOLTS, in May 118K jobs were added. Once again, just about 90% off the NFP reported 195K.
And so on. In fact, if one looks at the data for all of 2013, one can see that JOLTS averages some 145,200 workers, while the Establishment Survey data shows average monthly gains of 201,833.
Or just about a 39% difference!
The chart below shows how through May (because remember, it is delayed by a month) JOLTS indicated only 726K new jobs created, while the NFP report indicated over 1 million, or 1,016,000 new jobs to be specific.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...202013_1_0.jpg
Finally, looking at a simple moving average, the "bullish bias" difference to NFP reported data is now only as big as it was just after the Lehman failure!
There is now a 69K trailing three month average benefit to NFP compared to what JOLTS is implying!
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...vs%20NFP_0.jpg
In other words, the headline (and algo moving) NFP data is overblown by some 40% cumulatively when looking at 2013 data. It also means that for the NFP discrepancy to be fixed, there has to be one month where there is a 290,000 job declineaccording to the Establishment Survey.
We urge all readers to recreate the above result on their own: the Hires timeseries can be found here, the Separationstimeseries is here, while the matching reported Nonfarm Payroll series is, as always, here.
We hope that, if nothing else, this above is a lesson to the BLS: when manipulating data series across dimensions, make sure the manipulations foot across, not just in 1 dimension!


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ayroll-numbers

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https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...37722863_n.jpg

http://www.alipac.us/f9/wayne-allyn-...ou-win-283163/

http://www.alipac.us/f19/obama-train...2/#post1355222

http://www.alipac.us/f19/decline-bre...5/#post1355380

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