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  1. #1
    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Americans React To End Of Jobless Benefits: I Just Don’t Know What To Do, Except Pray

    Americans React To End Of Jobless Benefits: “I Just Don’t Know What To Do, Except Pray”

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2013 10:28 -0500

    "It's going to put my family and me out on the streets," is a perspective shared by many of the 1.3 million Americans about to lose their emergency unemployment claims. The program, started during the recession, was intended to help jobless people after they exhausted state benefits, typically lasting six months. House Republicans resisted continuing the benefits without budget cuts elsewhere to cover the cost. As Bloomberg reports, opponents say the extended benefits discourage the unemployed from accepting jobs and that the program should be curtailed, given the recovery in the nation’s labor market.

    Via Bloomberg,

    It lacks compassion for the victims of the recession and, economically, it’s shooting ourselves in the foot,” said Lawrence Mishel, the president of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, which backs policies that help low-income workers. “The timing is very premature. The evidence is that people who want work can’t find it.”
    ...
    The economy has now been out of a recession for more than four years,” said Chris Edwards, an economist with the Cato Institute in Washington, which argues for scaling back the role of government. “These unemployment benefits are emergency benefits, but the economy is no longer in an emergency situation. People can find jobs if they are willing to moderate their wage demands and make compromises.”
    ...
    “Not all of us have savings and a lot of us have to take care of family because of what happened in the economy,” said Walker, of Santa Clarita, who said she has applied for at least three jobs a week and shares an apartment with her unemployed son, his wife and two children. “It’s going to put my family and me out on the streets.”
    ...
    There were 3.9 million job openings across the U.S. at the end of October, according to the Labor Department. That same month, 11.3 million people were looking for work but couldn’t find it, a gap advocates say underscores the need to keep benefits flowing.
    ...
    Failure to extend the program will affect 1.9 million people who are forecast to use up their state benefits in the first half of 2014 before they can find work, according to the White House.
    ...
    The effect will be especially pronounced in the most-populous U.S. states. In New York, 102,700 people were expected to lose their benefits on Dec. 28, said Chris White, a spokesman for the state’s labor department. In New Jersey, about 90,300 will do the same, according to estimates from Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee. More than 222,000 Californians will likewise see their benefits disappear.
    ...
    “I understand the government doesn’t want to pay for people who are taking advantage of it,” she said. “But I am not, and many other people are not.”

    “I just don’t know what to do, except pray.”
    Of course, as we discussed in detail previously, this will mean a notable drop in the unemployment rate (for what that is worth)...

    This has profound implications for the oh-so-important unemployment rate that the Fed is so dependent upon...


    JPM's Feroli: One observation that could set an upper bound on thinking about a participation effect is to hypothesize that all 1.3 million EUC claimants exit the labor force after benefits expire in 1Q (again, should Congress allow that to happen). In that case, the unemployment rate would fall by 0.8%-pt, obviously an extreme example. Some of the Fed studies can help to narrow the range of outcomes.

    One of the more recent works (Farber and Valletta from the San Francisco Fed) indicates that about a fifth of long-term unemployment is due to extended benefits. With just over 4 million long-term unemployed recently, this would imply that the absence of extended UI benefits could lower the unemployment rate by 0.5%-pt.


    This will directly impact the Fed's credibility to manage the economt in a "data-dependent" manner:

    JPM's Feroli: Setting aside the normative aspect of whether from a public policy perspective this is a desirable or undesirable outcome, such a fall in the unemployment and participation rates could create some tricky choices for Fed policymakers as they assess the health of the labor market.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...-pray%E2%80%9D
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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Senior Member HAPPY2BME's Avatar
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    Illegal Aliens Taking U.S. Jobs (2013)
    Illegal Aliens Taking U.S. Jobs (2013)

    Illegal aliens come to the United States to take jobs that offer them greater opportunity, and they are often welcomed by U.S. employers who are able to hire them for wages lower than they would have to pay to hire U.S. workers. This employment is illegal under a law enacted in 1986, but some employers ignore the law and hire illegal workers in the underground economy. Others simply accept fake employment documents and hire the illegal workers as if they were legal. Because there is no requirement to verify documents presented by workers, employers can easily evade compliance.

    The illegal alien workers are mostly persons who sneaked into the country — nearly all Mexicans or Central Americans who enter from Mexico. There is also, however, illegal entry across the border with Canada, with apprehensions by the Border Patrol of more than 6,000 aliens in 2010. There is also a significant portion of the illegal alien population that arrives with visas and stays illegally. These ‘overstayers' are estimated variously to between one- third and 40 percent of the illegal alien population.

    The defenders of illegal aliens — ethnic advocacy groups, employer groups, and church-based groups — often assert that illegal aliens only take jobs unwanted by U.S. workers. This is patently false because they are working in jobs in which U.S. workers are also employed — whether in construction, agricultural harvesting or service professions.

    If the hiring of illegal alien workers is prevalent in a sector of the economy, as it has become the case in seasonal crop agriculture, the willingness of foreign workers to accept lower wages because of their illegal status acts to depress wages and working conditions for all workers in that occupation. This in turn makes employment in that sector less attractive to U.S. workers who have other options. The result is a form of circular logic, i.e., the more that illegal aliens are able to take jobs in a sector of the economy, the less attractive the sector becomes to U.S. workers, and the greater appearance of validity to the lie that only illegal aliens are willing to take jobs in the sector. Only by enforcing the immigration law against employment of illegal alien workers can this spiral to the bottom be broken and employers forced to restore wages and working conditions to levels that will attract U.S. workers and legal foreign workers.

    How Many U.S. Jobs Are Taken by Illegal Aliens?

    Just as the size of the illegal alien population can only be estimated, the number of illegal aliens working in the United States is also subject to estimation. A large share of the illegal alien population is generally accepted as being in the workforce because that is what motivates most illegal immigration. However, there are some family members, especially children of illegal aliens not in the labor force, while others may be in prison. One recent estimate by researchers at the Pew Hispanic Center puts the number of illegal aliens in the workforce at 8 million out of an overall population of 11.2 million illegal aliens, i.e., 71.4 percent.1 That estimate is generally accepted as reasonable.

    FAIR's estimate of the illegal alien population in 2010 is slightly higher than that of the Pew estimate, i.e., 11.9 million. FAIR's estimate of the number of illegal aliens in the workforce — using the share estimate of the Pew study — is similarly slightly higher, i.e., about 8.5 million jobs encumbered by illegal alien workers.

    Where Are the Jobs Taken by Illegal Aliens Located?

    Below is a listing of the estimated number of jobs encumbered by illegal alien workers by state (and Washington, DC). The estimate is proportional to FAIR's estimate of the illegal alien population residing in each state. The listing does not include an estimate for those states that have estimated illegal alien populations of 5,000 or fewer (Maine, Montana, North and South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming).

    State Jobs Taken
    Alabama 89,550
    Alaska 7,165
    Arizona 279,395
    Arkansas 39,400
    California 1,887,695
    Colorado 139,700
    Connecticut 85,965
    DC 25,075
    Delaware 21,490
    Florida 587,440
    Georgia 322,375
    Hawaii 21,490
    Idaho 21,490
    Illinois 394,015
    Indiana 85,965
    Iowa 46,565
    Kansas 50,145
    Kentucky 35,820
    Louisiana 42,985
    Maryland 211,335
    Massachusetts 136,115
    Michigan 82,385
    Minnesota 71,640
    Mississippi 21,490
    Missouri 42,985
    Nebraska 28,655
    Nevada 143,280
    New Hampshire 10,745
    New Jersey 293,720
    New Mexico 71,640
    New York 537,295
    North Carolina 293,720
    Ohio 78,805
    Oklahoma 60,895
    Oregon 121,785
    Pennsylvania 128,950
    Rhode Island 25,075
    South Carolina 50,145
    Tennessee 85,965
    Texas 1,296,670
    Utah 71,640
    Virginia 186,260
    Washington 197,010
    Wisconsin 68,055


    Updated March 2013



    1. Passel, Jeffrey S. and D'Vera Cohn, "Unauthorized Immigrant Population: National and State Trends, 2010," Pew Hispanic Center, February, 2011.
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    Senior Member HAPPY2BME's Avatar
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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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