MU poll shows Clinton's lead narrows on Trump

1:13 p.m. CDT August 31, 2016
Bill Glauber and Craig Gilbert

The presidential race and U.S. Senate contest have tightened in Wisconsin, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

In the race for the White House, Democrat Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 42% to 37% among registered voters. Clinton also led Trump, 45% to 42% among voters who said they are certain to go to the polls in the fall.

In the Senate rematch, Democrat Russ Feingold led Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson by 46% to 42% among registered voters. Feingold's lead narrowed to 48% to 45% among likely voters.

"An apparently close race and inside the margin of error," poll director Charles Franklin said of the Senate race.

Three weeks ago, Clinton held a 10-point lead over Trump among registered voters and a 15-point lead among likely voters.

Essentially, the presidential race is close to where it was before the two parties held their national conventions, Franklin said.

In July, Clinton led Trump by 6 points among registered voters and 4 points among likely voters.

In a four-way presidential race, Clinton has 37%, Trump 32%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 11% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 7% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Clinton is at 41%, Trump at 38%, Johnson at 10% and Stein at 4%.

"We might expect to see more fluctuation going forward," Franklin said.

Fifty-eight percent of registered voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton, and 35% a favorable view.

Trump was viewed unfavorably by 63% and favorably by 28%.

Clinton was backed by 89% of those who identified as Democratic and Trump was supported by 81% who identified as Republicans.

In the Senate race, Feingold was viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 35% and 25% had no opinion. Ron Johnson was viewed favorably by 33%, unfavorably by 34% and 32% had no opinion.

Ron Johnson was supported by 87% of those who identified as Republicans and Feingold was backed by 88% who said they were Democrats.

More than half of those surveyed statewide said they had heard or read about the recent civil unrest in Milwaukee.

Asked the cause of unrest, 37% said it was due to long-term disadvantage while 48% said it was due to lack of respect for law and order.

Asked their feelings about police in their communities, 86% said the police made them feel safe and 12% said police made them feel anxious.

Among a combined sample of African-Americans and Hispanics, 57% said they felt safe with police and 37% said they felt anxious.

The poll dug into voter views on what to do with undocumented immigrants, a key issue in the election.

Sixty-two percent said there should be some path to citizenship, 19% supported a guest worker program and 15% said undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the country.

Among Democrats, 81% favor the citizenship option, 13% the guest worker proposal and 4% want undocumented immigrants to leave the country. Among Republicans, 43% favor the citizenship option, 26% the guest worker program and 28% want to require undocumented immigrants to exit.

Gov. Scott Walker's job approval was at 43% with 49% disapproving. The numbers provided a notable boost for Walker who has suffered with lagging ratings since his failed presidential campaign.

Forty-nine percent of those surveyed approved of the job being done by President Barack Obama, with 45% disapproving.

The survey of 803 registered voters — and 650 likely voters — was conducted Thursday through Sunday by landline and cellphone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.0% for likely voters.

Including independents who lean to a party, 45% identified as Republicans and 46% as Democrats.

"Leaners are tilting a little more Republican in this sample," Franklin said.

The Marquette poll results in the presidential race mirrors those of a poll released Wednesday by Monmouth University. That one showed Clinton leading Trump by 5 points — 43% to 38%.

Monmouth showed a wider advantage for Feingold in the Senate race, as he leads Johnson by 13 points — 54% to 41%.

Monmouth interviewed 404 likely voters from Saturday to Tuesday.

In the presidential race, Johnson got 7%, Stein got 3% and 8% were undecided.

Fueling Clinton’s lead over Trump was a higher degree of loyalty from her own party’s voters than Trump received. In the survey, 89% of Democrats backed Clinton, while 83% of Republicans backed Trump.

Monmouth reported high negatives for both candidates in Wisconsin. Clinton was viewed favorably by 34% of likely voters and unfavorably by 50%. Trump’s numbers were even worse: he was viewed favorably by 26% and unfavorably by 57%.

In the Senate race, Feingold was better liked. The Democrat was viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 26%.

Republican Johnson was viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 30%.

The Monmouth poll has a margin for error of plus or minus 4.9 points. The poll was conducted using live interviewers; voters were contacted on both landlines and cellphones.

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