Thread: Battleground State Polls Show Tight Races Between Trump and Clinton

Battleground State Polls Show Tight Races Between Trump and Clinton

By RYAN STRUYK
Sep 8, 2016, 3:09 PM ET

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are locked in tight battles in four key battleground states, according to polling from Quinnipiac University released today.

In Florida, Clinton and Trump each garner 47 percent. In Ohio, Trump earns 46 percent, and Clinton has fallen, by 4 percentage points in the last month, to 45 percent.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, where Mitt Romney won in 2012, Clinton gets 47 percent to 43 percent for Trump. And in Pennsylvania, Clinton polls slightly lower than previously but still ahead of Trump, at 48 percent support to Trump's 43 percent.

All four states are within the polls' margin of error, and winning all of them would be Trump's best chance to make it to the White House. With the electoral votes from these four states, Trump would likely win a majority in the Electoral College.

However, a win for Clinton in Ohio, Florida or North Carolina would likely seal a victory for her campaign.

Clinton's slight decline in Ohio and larger decline in Pennsylvania show classic signs of a fading post-convention bounce. Democratic voters in both states seem to be softening a bit from last month. And Clinton's advantage among women, especially white women, is shrinking in Pennsylvania while Trump's lead among men in Ohio is climbing.

North Carolina presents a unique challenge for Trump. Although he leads by more than 20 percentage points among military households in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he runs neck and neck with Clinton among the large military population in North Carolina.

The poll shows almost no gender gap among Republicans and Democrats, but a wide split by gender among independents.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/battl...ry?id=41952502

Clinton's lead over Trump shrinks in swing state polls

Eliza Collins, USA TODAY 6:05 p.m. EDT September 8, 2016

The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in some battleground states is tightening, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Thursday.

The polls found that in a one-on-one matchup in Florida, Clinton and Trump are tied with 47% support each among likely voters. When third-party candidates are added into the mix, Clinton and Trump are still tied, this time at 43%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had 8% support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 2% backing.

Clinton did have a 4-point lead in North Carolina in a one-on-one match-up, 47%-43%. That lead remained the same when third-party candidates were added, 42%-38%. Johnson had 15% in North Carolina; Stein is not on the ballot in the state.

Ohio voters are also basically evenly divided between Trump and Clinton in a one-on-one matchup, 46%-45%, but when third-party candidates are added, Trump has a 4-point lead 41% to 37%. Johnson had 14% support and Stein came in with 4%.

Clinton is ahead of Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania. That lead remains in a four-way race with Clinton at 44% support, Trump at 39%. In that race, Johnson had 9% and Stein had 3%.

In August one-on-one match-ups Clinton was ahead by 1-point in Florida (within the margin of error), 4 points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania. Those leads have diminished over the last month. North Carolina polls were not released in that same August batch.

The polls out Thursday were conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 7. In Florida, 761 likely voters were surveyed. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points. There were 751 likely voters polled in North Carolina, with a margin of error of 3.6 points. Seven-hundred and seventy-five likely voters in Ohio were polled with a margin of error of 3.5 points. Pennsylvania polling of 778 likely voters also had a 3.5-point margin of error.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...tate/90044064/

North Carolina presents a unique challenge for Trump. Although he leads by more than 20 percentage points among military households in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, he runs neck and neck with Clinton among the large military population in North Carolina.

This is from the first article, what's up with that? Why would military people in North Carolina vote differently than military members throughout the country?! Just curious.