Bill Kristol: Donald Trump Mystique Would Disappear With Iowa Loss

Bill Kristol: Donald Trump Mystique Would Disappear With Iowa Loss

By BEN BELL

Dec 26, 2015, 1:36 PM EST

This week we asked ABC News contributor and Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol five questions about Donald Trump, the GOP's current frontrunner for the nomination for president, and the broader 2016 race for the White House. Kristol will appear on the "This Week" roundtable Sunday.

1] You sent a tweet suggesting a new party would have to be started if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Were you serious? Would you leave the Republican party if he does win the nomination?

KRISTOL: I was semi-serious. I don't think Trump will be the nominee, so I don't expect it to be an issue. But since I don't think I could support Trump, and I'd like to have someone to vote for, if Trump were to be the nominee, I'd be open to a new party, probably for 2016 only -- but you never know.

2] Would you support Hillary Clinton over Trump if they are the nominees?

KRISTOL: No. Thus my talking about a third party or an independent candidacy. I've registered the website cheneycotton2016, just in case -- but neither Dick Cheney nor Tom Cotton has expressed interest. So far.

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3] Ok, lay out for me a scenario in which Donald Trump does not win the nomination. Who overtakes him? And when?

KRISTOL: Trump loses Iowa, the mystique disappears, he's just another candidate -- though perhaps a formidable one -- and he's beaten by either [Marco] Rubio, [Ted] Cruz or [Chris] Christie.

PHOTO: Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol on This WeekABC News
Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol on "This Week"

4] Looking at the polls, Trump does not seem to be penalized by his supporters for making controversial comments. What does that tell you?

KRISTOL: For now, they're willing to set a lot aside on behalf of their favorite. I'm not sure that continues forever or even for another month.

5] What do you think is Jeb Bush's calculus at this point? How important is Iowa for his campaign?

KRISTOL: Bush may be a little less dead than everyone thinks. He needs to run ahead of Christie and [John] Kasich in Iowa, and then again in New Hampshire. If he can do this, he stays in as the sober, experienced candidate against Trump, Cruz and Rubio.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bill-...ry?id=35945758

Oh my goodness, are you an idiot!! You don't understand Trump supporters at all, Bill Kristol. In fact, I don't think you even understand Americans at all. If Iowa wants to vote "faith and religion" as their Number One Issue which gives Iowa to Cruz, that's a tragedy in my book, both for Trump and our country. But I think many other Iowans who haven't been part of that "faith and religion" first voting club in Iowa will be outdone by Trump supporters who vote America First.

But lets say Trump loses Iowa, Trump won't lose his "mystique". All he lost was Iowa and there he still gets delegates so it's not a total loss. And if you were paying attention to the polls, 2 polls have Trump losing Iowa at the very time that Trump soared up to 39%, so people are prepared to lose Iowa while landsliding in the other states.

But I don't think Trump will lose Iowa. I think he'll win Iowa because I believe Trump supporters will be up and out in droves to support him at the caucuses, assuming they can get off work. Most Trump supporters are working people so to participate in a Feb 1 caucus date which is on a Monday, a work day, means they would have to miss work to be there and participate all day.

There was a bill in Iowa to allow workers unpaid leave to attend. Republicans took no stance on it. And so far I can't see that it passed, so I guess it died in the House. It's kind of bad way to run a primary election process when working people can't be there.

Iowa
If the polls are not open three consecutive hours outside the employee’s regular shift, the employee is entitled to paid voting leave in an amount, that when added to the employee’s non-working time, totals three consecutive hours while the polls are open. Application by any employee for such absence shall be made individually and in writing prior to the date of the election, and the employer shall designate the period of time to be taken. The employer may not penalize the employee for this time off or make any deduction from the employee’s usual salary or wages. Iowa Code § 49-109.

http://www.hrlegalist.com/2014/05/pr...e-get-to-vote/

Cheneycotton2016? This Kristol is delusional. I can't wait to see him eat his words. I think Kristol already knows Trump will win. Why else would he be setting up "cheneycotton2016" "just in case"? Kristol, you just wish you has 1/10th the mystique Trump has.

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Originally Posted by MW

Iowa
If the polls are not open three consecutive hours outside the employee’s regular shift, the employee is entitled to paid voting leave in an amount, that when added to the employee’s non-working time, totals three consecutive hours while the polls are open. Application by any employee for such absence shall be made individually and in writing prior to the date of the election, and the employer shall designate the period of time to be taken. The employer may not penalize the employee for this time off or make any deduction from the employee’s usual salary or wages. Iowa Code § 49-109.

http://www.hrlegalist.com/2014/05/pr...e-get-to-vote/

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Wrong law. That does not apply to the primary caucus, just elections involving polls.

In Iowa, workers are not entitled under the law to take off from work to participate in a Caucus. A Caucus is not a poll booth election, it's a political party gathering to choose a candidate and eventually assign delegates for the National Convention.

In 2014, the Democratic Party wanted changes including working on the state legislature to allow workers to take unpaid leave to attend a caucus. A bill was introduced this year to change that so workers could attend a caucus, but I can find no article on it passing, so I assume it died.

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In 2014, the Iowa Democratic Party announced changes to the caucus system that will allow members of the military to participate in a statewide caucus and establish satellite caucuses for the disabled and others who have trouble making it to the physical location of the caucuses. They will also work for the passage of a new law that requires employers to allow employees to take time off for the caucuses.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses

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Iowa Senate Passes Bill To Give Employees Time Off For Caucuses

Bill Faces Strong Opposition In The House

March 19, 2015

Yesterday, the Iowa Senate voted 26-24 in favor of a Senate Bill that would allow employees to take unpaid time off to vote in the Presidential caucus without penalty from their employer. The bill now goes onto the Iowa State House where it will face tough opposition in the Republican controlled House.

Opponents say that the bill is invalid as caucuses are held by Iowa’s two major political parties and not held by the state of Iowa. Supporters believe it will encourage participation in the Presidential Caucuses by Iowans and strengthen Iowa’s first in the nation status.

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http://iowafreepress.com/2015/03/19/...-for-caucuses/

The Senate in Iowa is controlled by Democrats. The bill to allow for time off to participate in a caucus was proposed by Democrats and passed the Democrat controlled Senate. The bill has not become law, so it was killed by the Republican controlled House. So working people who want to participate in the Caucus and support for example Donald Trump will not be able to attend unless their employer wants to give them permission to take off work to do so and most employers unless it's required by law will not do so.

Maybe Trump can make this one of his issues and bombast any employer who won't let their employees off from work to participate in our political process. In fact, I think I'll start a separate thread on this issue in Iowa.

Gee, MW, I'm honestly surprised you weren't up to speed on the peculiar nature of Caucuses versus primary elections.

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Originally Posted by Goldendaze

Cheneycotton2016? This Kristol is delusional. I can't wait to see him eat his words. I think Kristol already knows Trump will win. Why else would he be setting up "cheneycotton2016" "just in case"? Kristol, you just wish you has 1/10th the mystique Trump has.

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Exactly. They're so jealous of this man you can smell it hundreds of miles away. I'm going to start a thread on the Iowa Caucus and how working people can't get permission to take off from work to participate in the Caucuses.

judy wrote:

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Wrong law. That does not apply to the primary caucus, just elections involving polls.

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follow the link.

http://www.hrlegalist.com/2014/05/<acronym title="Google Page Ranking"><acronym title="Google Page Ranking">pr</acronym></acronym>...e-get-to-vote/

The title of the article clearly states what it applies to:

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Primary Elections & Voter Leave Laws: How Much Time Off Does an Employee Get To Vote?

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I posted the information for informational purposes, not to question what you said.