5 Apr 2016

A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of four California television stations and released Monday shows Donald Trump leads among likely Republican primary voters by eight points — and also leads among GOP women.

Trump has 40% support, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 32% and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 17%. The survey also showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 53% to 39%.

Female likely Republican voters favored Trump by 38% to 31% over Cruz, with Kasich a close third at 29%. Cruz led among younger voters — especially those 18 to 34, where he is beating Trump 36% to 19%. He also led Trump among Hispanic voters, 42% to 27%. Trump led among voters who described themselves as “moderate” and “very conservative,” though Cruz led among voters who described themselves as “somewhat conservative.” Cruz also led among voters in the Inland Empire (43% to 30%); voters who attend church regularly (47% to 23%); voters with moderate incomes and some college; and first-time voters (62% to 36%). Trump led every other GOP demographic.

Despite his lead among Republicans, 47% of likely primary voters in California said they have “extremely negative” views of Trump. Every Republican candidate also trailed every Democrat in head-to-head matches by wide margins.

The poll also showed a tightening race for U.S. Senate to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), with Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) at 22% and California Attorney General Kamala Harris at 26%, just outside the 2.8% margin of error. None of the Republican candidates recorded poll results in the double digits. 24% of voters remain undecided. High turnout among Latino voters, motivated by Trump’s presence on the ballot, may help Sanchez even more.