California's population to grow 39% by 2060

California's population to grow 39% by 2060, report says

January 31, 2013 | 10:24am

California's population will reach nearly 52.7 million by 2060, according to a new state report.

The projection, released by Gov. Jerry Brown's Department of Finance, said the state will cross the 50 million threshold by 2049.

The report showed 39% growth in the state's population. By comparison, if there was a state made only from the difference between the California's current population and its projected population in 2060, it would be the fifth-largest state in the nation.

California's demographics are also in for a major shift, according to the report: For the first time since California became a state, Latinos will be a plurality in early 2014. By 2060, they will be nearly half of the state's population.

Although the state's Asian population is also growing, it will only be a little more than 13% of the state's population, the report said.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2013/01/california-population-growth.html

Riverside County population will double by 2060

Jan 31, 2013

http://cmsimg.gdn.mydesert.com/apps/...double-by-2060
A crowd walks on the closed-to-traffic Palm Canyon Drive and shop at the Palm Springs Tour vendor fair. / Desert Sun File

Written by Victoria Pelham
The Desert Sun

Riverside County is projected to grow the most of any California county by 2060 to become the second-most populated in the state, according to a demographic report Thursday from the California Department of Finance.

The county’s population will almost double to reach 4,216,816 — a number second only to Los Angeles County.

The entire Inland Empire region, consisting of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, will grow by 3.4 million, part of a wider trend of population growth from 8.3 million to 31 million in Southern California.

The Riverside County boom will be fueled by a younger population in the region and in-migration, said Bill Schooling, chief of the department’s Demographic Research Unit.

Schooling also noted that, based on historic and current migration patterns, Riverside County will have higher-than-average migration into the region. Housing costs and proximity within commuting distance to economic bases could play into this.

Latinos, who already outnumber whites in the county, will take over the majority of California’s population by mid-2013, the report also showed. They’ll be the majority in 2014.

By 2060, they are expected to be about 48 percent of the state’s population in contrast with whites at 29.7 percent. That’s a flip of the state’s 2010 numbers of 40 percent white and 37.7 Latino.

In Riverside County, the spread will jump in 2060 to 55.1 percent Latino and 31.3 percent white.

The high population growth in Riverside County will be spread throughout the region, said Hasan Ikhrata, CEO of the Southern California Association of Governments, and could have serious consequences on a range of issues, including housing, transportation, schools, health care and water access.

“The growth is significant,” Ikhrata said. “The challenges that come with it are also significant.”

The area will need to add more housing and different kinds, he said, including single-family homes on smaller lots and an increase of multifamily, high-density units, such as apartments and townhouses. They will also need to be placed in the right areas to accommodate growth.

Education will also be affected, as the area works to ensure classrooms don’t become overcrowded, he said. The county will need to open more schools and hire more staff.

Population growth also creates a significant need in dealing with water resources, Ikhrata pointed out, as Southern California struggles to provide enough affordable water for all.

He added that every service will need to be added to to accommodate the changes.

“We need to provide the right infrastructure,” he said. “If we do that, I think we will be ready to meet that growth. If we don’t, I think the challenges will be tremendous.”

In the eastern Coachella Valley, access to health care already is strained. The doctor-to-patient ratio is 1 to 9,000, and some desert communities are federally categorized as shortage areas.

The growth concerns Cameron Kaiser, interim public health officer for the Riverside County Department of Public Health, who said that a lack of providers affects the health of residents. He noted that 2060 is a long time in the future and much can happen or change, but the county needs to do what it can in the meantime to prepare.

“Regardless of whether the report turns out to be right or not, we already know that in many areas throughout the county, we already have a shortage,” Kaiser said. “We need to plan for it carefully.”

He said part of this includes efforts to recruit local physicians and train them at the UC Riverside School of Medicine, so they will stay and practice in the area.
Ikhrata said a big piece of the puzzle is revenue; if the region can bring in enough funds, the growth will be a positive thing for the community. If not, it could mean problems.

“Existing resources is not enough to pay for what’s needed,” he said, adding that SCAG is looking at additional revenue models to bring in over the next 20 to 30 years.

This could include adjusting state taxes, renewing and possibly adding local sales taxes and creating bigger public-private partnerships.

For SCAG as a whole, a metropolitan planning organization that covers six counties in Southern California, including Riverside, about $200 billion is needed to maintain existing infrastructure and create more to deal with increased demand.

“This growth needs action now,” Ikhrata said.

http://www.mydesert.com/article/20130131/NEWS01/301310007/Riverside-County-population-will-double-by-2060