Thread: Latest polls set stage for unprecedented circumstances

Latest polls set stage for unprecedented circumstances
12/21/15 08:00 AM
By Steve Benen

About a week ago, a Monmouth University poll showed Donald Trump crossing a striking threshold: the survey showed the New York developer reaching 41% in the Republican primary at the national level. The obvious question was whether this was an outlier to be dismissed or evidence of Trump’s ceiling reaching new heights.

The evidence now points towards the latter. A day after the Monmouth poll was released, a Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Trump leading the GOP pack with 38%. And on Friday, a Fox News poll, conducted entirely after last week’s debate, raised even more eyebrows:

1. Donald Trump: 39% (up from 28% in November)
2. Ted Cruz: 18% (up from 14%)
3. Marco Rubio: 11% (down from 14%)
4. Ben Carson: 9% (down from 18%)

Every other competitor in the Republican field was at 3% or lower, including Jeb Bush, who’s down to 3%, which is his lowest point to date. At the top, Trump’s national 39% support is the strongest performance of any GOP candidate in any Fox poll this year, and his 21-point lead – he’s now ahead of Cruz, Rubio, and Carson combined – is also the largest advantage any Republican has enjoyed in 2015.

There’s also the latest survey from Public Policy Polling, which was also conducted entirely after last week’s debate:

1. Donald Trump: 34% (up from 26% in November)
2. Ted Cruz: 18% (up from 14%)
3. Marco Rubio: 13% (unchanged)
4. Jeb Bush: 7% (up from 5%)
5. Ben Carson: 6% (down from 19%)

This seems like a good time to pause and think about some historical context – because next year, something unprecedented is going to happen.

Based on the latest, overall national averages, Trump isn’t just the leading Republican candidate, he’s actually dominating by more than 20 points. These same overall averages show the frontrunner, at least for now, with more support than Cruz and Rubio combined.

When was the last time a Republican presidential candidate led by more than 20 points in late December and failed to win his party’s nomination? Never. It just hasn’t happened.

Now, some caveats are probably in order. When I say “never,” I’m referring to the modern era: election cycles in which polling existed and in which Republican primary and caucus voters chose the GOP nominee in contested races.

In other words, we’re basically looking at 40 years’ worth of presidential elections (for Democrats, it’s 44 years, but since Nixon ran effectively unopposed in 1972, it’s 40 for the GOP). In that time, no Republican had a national lead this big and ended up losing.

The only candidate who’s in the same league is Rudy Giuliani, who enjoyed big early leads in 2007 – before voters got to know him – but by Christmas Week eight years ago, his lead was either modest or non-existent, a far cry from Trump’s advantages now. What’s more, Giuliani’s support in early nominating states had already collapsed by this point in the process, while Trump remains a top-tier contender in all of the early contests.

Am I saying Trump is going to win the nomination? Not exactly. I am saying we’re looking at a dynamic in which we’ll either see (a) the biggest Republican collapse in modern American history; or (b) the first Republican nominee since 1940 with no experience in public office.

Either way, we’re going to see a result without modern precedent. Buckle up.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-s...-circumstances

Nice article, MSNBC! Thank you!

GO TRUMP!!

STAY TRUE!! STAY TRUMP!!

Thanks for posting this Judy.

The citizens of this country want real change. The beast is awake. The silent majority has become the screaming majority! It has taken an inspiring personality to bring us all together like this. Those who have aligned themselves as Republicans, Tea Party-ers, Libertarians, and even Democrats are all now backing the Trump. Who knows, by 2024 there may be a new political party named after him. I personally believe that Trump is the man for the job. I believe that after only about 1 year in office, any conservative that is currently a nay sayer, will happily admit that President Trump has truly "Made America Great Again."

You're so welcome. And I totally agree with your very eloquent post. Think of a Presidency. He will be on the job every day. He will be reporting into US on what he did and accomplished that day, every day. Every day there will be good news of something good being done, finished, started, and he'll tell us what it cost, when it will be completed, and if people aren't cooperating with him to achieve our mission, he will be blasting them. He'll have galas and I believe he'll build on the nice ball room and have lots of access for parties, celebrations and lots of beautiful state dinners. He'll never take off somewhere and hide for weeks. He won't waste time traveling the world, the world will come to him to ask for money and he'll feed them a nice dinner, be a good host, and tell them ... No money and by the way, there's a boatload of your people down at the docks you need to take home with you.

It'll be a lovely Presidency. One with all the good things Americans want and need, plus some enjoyable and entertaining events as well. No one will work harder or smarter to help US fix our country, because Trump has both the Will and Skill to do it and do it right.