Thread: Who could be the next Ted Cruz? Top 10 tea party primaries of 2014.

Who could be the next Ted Cruz? Top 10 tea party primaries of 2014.

In five years, the tea party has launched some of the most charismatic and controversial Republicans in office today, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Who are the movement’s top candidates this cycle, and what are their prospects? Here’s a look:

- Linda Feldmann, Staff writer


US Senate candidate Chris McDaniel (R) of Mississippi speaks to a gathering at FreePAC Kentucky earlier this month at the Kentucky International Convention Center in Louisville. (Timothy D. Easley/AP)


1. Mississippi: Chris McDaniel vs. Thad Cochran

In the early going, tea party-backed state Sen. Chris McDaniel was seen as the strongest challenger to a sitting US senator this cycle. He’s a young (early 40s), energetic trial lawyer and former talk radio host, with six years' service in the state legislature – and he believes six-term Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is part of the problem in Washington.

The challenge for Mr. McDaniel is to persuade enough Republican voters in the June 3 primary to toss out a senior senator who is skilled at bringing federal dollars to Mississippi. McDaniel ran into trouble after qualifying his support for Katrina aid, a lifeline in this state.

The tea party movement gives McDaniel’s campaign energy on the ground, though Senator Cochran supporters are starting to wake up.

Cochran beat McDaniel in fundraising for the first quarter of 2014 by more than 3 to 1.

McDaniel has run into other problems. An audio clip surfaced from his old radio show, with McDaniel making provocative comments about Mexicans, women, and slaves. Cochran is now looking a bit stronger than he was early in the race.

But if McDaniel pulls off an upset, the Democrats have a candidate ready to take him on: former US Rep. Travis Childers. Democrats hope McDaniel wins the primary, then blows up in the general, as has happened in the last two cycles with tea party-backed nominees. A Democratic pickup in deep-red Mississippi is improbable, but if it happened, that would set back the Republican drive to retake the Senate.


2. Kentucky: Matt Bevin vs. Mitch McConnell

Polls show businessman Matt Bevin’s challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate, has faded. Mr. Bevin ran into problems when a 2008 letter revealed he had supported TARP bailouts, even though he now criticizes the program. (Opposition to TARP helped launch the tea party.) But Bevin’s candidacy still matters, because he has forced Senator McConnell to prove his conservative bona fides while preparing for a general election challenge from the left.

Likely Democratic nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state, is seen as a strong opponent, and if McConnell is pushed too far to the right answering tea party attacks in the primary, it could hurt him in November

McConnell has made some unforced errors in the primary. He ran an ad that featured basketball players from rival Duke University, rather than the University of Kentucky. His campaign also posted raw, silent video footage of McConnell smiling, which late-night comedians lampooned and turned into a meme, called“McConnelling.” The McConnell campaign embraced the viral sensation with video parodies of their own.
McConnell spokeswoman Allison Moore crystallizes the senator's challenge: McConnell has "fought off multimillion-dollar attacks from both sides, simultaneously, for over a year."
The primary is on May 20.


3. Nebraska: Ben Sasse vs. Shane Osborn

[Updated May 6, 2014] The Republican primary for retiring GOP Sen. Mike Johanns’s seat is a barn-burner between two candidates with claims to the “tea party” mantle.

Shane Osborn is a former Nebraska state treasurer and a decorated Navy pilot who was detained in China for 12 days in 2001. Ben Sasse is president of Midland University in Fremont, Neb., and previously held government positions in Washington.

Their race is unusual, because of a schism that has emerged between local and national tea party groups. Mr. Sasse is backed by the three top Washington-based tea party support groups: FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, and the Senate Conservatives Fund. In late March, FreedomWorks took the unprecedented step of switching its endorsement from Mr. Osborn to Mr. Sasse. FreedomWorks head Matt Kibbe said that Osborn had “formed allegiances with Mitch McConnell and the K Street lobbying class” that signaled a “progression away from the grass roots.”

But in Nebraska, many local tea party activists are with Osborn. In an April 8 letter, 52 Nebraska tea partyers objected to the involvement of outside groups in their Senate primary on May 13.

“We are disappointed with the way DC organizations are telling Nebraskans what the Tea Party in Nebraska thinks,” the letter said.
On May 1, Tea Party Express released a poll that showed Sasse and Osborn in a dead heat among likely Republican primary voters. Sasse had 29 percent and Osborn had 27 percent, according to NSON Opinion Strategy of Salt Lake City. Among self-identified tea party supporters, Sasse led, 37 percent to 25 percent. On May 5, Tea Party Express endorsed Sasse.

The winner of the primary is expected to breeze to victory in November.


4. Idaho: Bryan Smith vs. Mike Simpson

The GOP primary in Idaho’s Second Congressional District is one of the few races pitting a nationally backed tea party candidate against an establishment Republican House member.

The incumbent, Rep. Mike Simpson, is a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner (R) of Ohio. And he scored only 47 percent in the conservative Club for Growth’s 2013 scorecard. So the Club and the other big Washington-based tea party organizations – FreedomWorks and the House branch of the Senate Conservatives Fund -- are backing trial lawyer Bryan Smith.

The US Chamber of Commerce is expected to spend $50 million on pro-business candidates in primaries this year. The latest ad, which launched April 16, features an endorsement of Congressman Simpson by 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Polling on the race is unavailable, but fundraising numbers offer a glimpse into the contest. Mr. Smith raised $137,000 in the first quarter of 2014, about a third of what Simpson raised. The primary is May 20.


5. Georgia: Karen Handel, Phil Gingrey, and Paul Broun vs. GOP establishment

[Updated May 6, 2014] GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss’s retirement has launched a crowded field of Republicans vying for their party’s nomination. No one has a commanding lead, with businessman David Perdue barely on top at 22 percent, according to a poll released May 2 by Fox5 of Atlanta.

Surging into second place is former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel with 21 percent, followed by Rep. Jack Kingston at 17 percent. Two other congressmen, Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey, are next with 14 percent and 12 percent, respectively. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent on May 20, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff on July 22.

Congressmen Broun and Gingrey are aligned with the tea party, but Ms. Handel has picked up late tea party support, including an endorsement May 6 by Tea Party Express. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer have campaigned for Handel, and her campaign credits their support for her late rise in the polls.

Handel, Broun, and Gingrey all bring an extra conservative edge to the campaign. In 2012, Handel resigned her position with Susan G. Komen for the Cure, amid the backlash over the organization’s decision to end funding to Planned Parenthood. Broun and Gingrey, both physicians, are two of the most conservative members of the House. Broun, in particular, is best-known for his controversial statements on evolution, global warming, and President Obama.

If a tea party-oriented candidate wins the primary, Democrats believe that boosts their chance of winning in November, even in a state where Republicans hold all statewide offices. Their likely nominee, Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn, is seen as a credible prospect. Her fundraising for the first quarter of 2014 was strong at $2.4 million.

Democrats are hoping the Republicans have a runoff. It would tie up the eventual nominee for two more months in an intraparty battle and increases the possibility that one of the more conservative candidates comes out on top.

The divisive, expensive primary also has the potential to leave the eventual winner weakened against Ms. Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) of Georgia. In first-quarter 2014 fundraising, Congressman Kingston came in with $1.1 million. Gingrey, Broun, and Handel each raised under $350,000. Mr. Perdue, a former CEO of Dollar General, is tapping his personal wealth.


6. Texas: Dan Patrick vs. David Dewhurst; Ken Paxton vs. Dan Branch

Tea party candidates came out on top in the Texas GOP primaries March 4 for lieutenant governor and attorney general: State Sen. Dan Patrick beat sitting Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, 41 percent to 28 percent. In the AG race, state Sen. Ken Paxton beat state Rep. Dan Branch, 44 percent to 33 percent.

Because neither of the top finishers got a majority, the candidates will compete in a runoff primary on May 27.

The two tea party candidates are well-positioned to win the Republican nomination, analysts say. Particularly stunning is Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst’s second-place finish on March 4. In 2012, he was the establishment Republican favorite for Texas’ open Senate seat and lost in the primary to tea partyer Ted Cruz.

The future doesn’t look great for Dewhurst in the current cycle. In early April, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, a key Dewhurst backer, flipped its endorsement to Senator Patrick.

“The lieutenant governor, who occupies the state's most powerful office, has personal wealth that can provide whatever funds he needs,” writes Abby Rapoport in The American Prospect. “But Patrick’s fan base is larger – in addition to being a state senator, he’s a talk-radio personality in the state.”


7. Texas: John Ratcliffe vs. Ralph Hall

Rep. Ralph Hall (R) of Texas, the oldest member of the House, faced a spirited challenge in the March 4 primary by former US attorney John Ratcliffe. Congressman Hall won less than 50 percent of the vote – 45 percent to Mr. Ratcliffe's 29 percent – which means the two face a runoff May 27.

Ratcliffe, the former mayor of Heath, Texas, is often identified as a “constitutional conservative” rather than “tea party." But the end result is the same: He has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund, Club for Growth, and the Madison Project for the Fourth Congressional District.

“The contrast between the two candidates could not be any starker,” the Madison Project said in a statement. “Whereas Hall has turned his position into a career devoid of any desire to fight the status quo, Ratcliffe is picking the arduous path to a congressional seat precisely because he wants to send a message to career politicians.”

Club for Growth President Chris Chocola calls Ratcliffe “a constitutional conservative who will champion economic freedom and individual liberty in Congress.”

The Texas congressional delegation has rallied around Hall, with the exception of Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Steve Stockman.


8. Ohio: Matt Lynch vs. David Joyce

Freshman Rep. David Joyce (R) of Ohio faces a growing challenge from tea party-backed state Rep. Matt Lynch. The race presents a test of former Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) of Ohio – who represented Congressman Joyce’s district for 10 years. After leaving Congress last year, the moderate Mr. LaTourette launched a "super political action committee," called Defending Main Street, aimed at helping centrist Republicans beat back tea party challengers.

LaTourette’s super PAC is helping Joyce. Mr. Lynch is being supported by FreedomWorks, as well as local tea party groups.

Lynch calls Joyce a big spender who’s too close to organized labor. But he’s been taking on LaTourette as well. “LaTourette spent his career passing out goodies through earmarks to Northeast Ohio,” Lynch said. LaTourette has suggested that Lynch was part of the “crazy” caucus in the Ohio legislature.

The primary is May 6.


9. North Carolina: Greg Brannon vs. Thom Tillis

[Updated May 1] Republicans are eager to defeat freshman Sen. Kay Hagan (D), and a crowded GOP primary field is vying for the chance to face her in November. The front-runner is state House Speaker Thom Tillis, who analysts say has the strongest chance of beating Senator Hagan. But Speaker Tillis faces numerous challengers. It took him a while to break out of the pack, but on April 29, Public Policy Polling released a survey showing Tillis surging to 46 percent.

Running second at 20 percent is Greg Brannon, who is getting support from the Washington-based tea party organization FreedomWorks.

Next comes Mark Harris, a Baptist minister, at 11 percent, and Heather Grant, a nurse practitioner running as a “constitutional conservative,” at 5 percent.

Tillis got a big infusion of GOP establishment support with the endorsements of North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) on May 1. Tillis is also getting support from two major Republican establishment groups, American Crossroads and the US Chamber of Commerce. The primary is May 6. If Tillis does not reach 40 percent of the vote, he will face a runoff against the second-place finisher.

Democrats, hoping to sway GOP primary voters, have gotten into the game. The Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic PAC aimed at holding the party’s majority in the Senate, launched an anti-Tillis ad on April 15.

Democrats are eager to face Brannon in the general, on the idea that he is too conservative for a state that is no longer solid red. President Obama won North Carolina in 2008.


10. Kansas: Milton Wolf vs. Pat Roberts

Early in the cycle, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas looked vulnerable. In a New York Times interview, he admitted that he pays rent to stay with supporters when he visits his home state, and that he registered to vote at his friends’ address the day before his primary opponent got into the race.

Senator Roberts looked set to become the next Richard Lugar, the Indiana senator who lost touch with his home state and lost the 2012 GOP primary to a tea party insurgent. Roberts’s opponent, Milton Wolf, is a young, telegenic doctor and tea party activist, and seemed a strong challenger to the three-term incumbent. Dr. Wolf is backed by the Senate Conservatives Fund and pulls no rhetorical punches: He has compared Mr. Obama, his distant cousin, to Hitler and Mussolini.

Enter social media. In February, the Topeka Capital-Journal broke a story about Wolf’s disabled Facebook page, where he had posted gruesome X-ray images and added macabre jokes and commentary.

In a statement, Wolf admitted to “mistakes," but his candidacy is on life support. A Public Policy Poll taken in February showed Roberts at 49 percent and Wolf at 23 percent.

Still, Wolf remains in the hunt. On April 16, he released a TV ad that hits Roberts for spending nearly five decades in Washington.

Another wrinkle is that outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius – a former two-term Democratic governor of Kansas – is reportedly thinking of getting into the race. That raises the stakes for the GOP primary. Secretary Sebelius has until June 2 to decide, the filing deadline for the Aug. 5 primaries.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Deco....-Thad-Cochran

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